MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 8TH+2SF

22-34

COL

20-37

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 80-01 out

Pitcher· COL

K. Thompson

0.1 IP, 0 ER

Batter· SF

B. Eldridge

1-1

Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s

65.8%

SF wins · current

Pre-game: 61.1% SF

SF 3 · 1 COL

SF +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCOLBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 32% WP
McCarthy · doubled to left.
SwingCOLBottom 6th Inning · 3-1
+8pp→ 30% WP
Castro · doubled to right.
SwingSFTop 6th Inning · 3-1
+9pp→ 84% WP
Lee · singled to left.
SwingSFTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 79% WP
Bader · singled to right, Lee scored, Eldridge to third.
Lead flipCOLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 56% WP
Karros · grounded out to shortstop.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 12.27

L. Webb

2-4 · 5.06 ERA

M. Lorenzen

2-7 · 7.21 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

39.7%

open 39.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
38.6%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.1%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-37.6ppvs pre-game · SF favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like SF.

SF's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+3.3

pp edge · SF

0.3u · small

on SF

61.1%

±5.6pp band

0.29u small — +0.5pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+3.1pp

-0.3pp post-cal

Kelly

1.2%

0.3% sized

Decimal

1.65

+0.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.3pp · SF over COL

▲
Recent form70% conf
SF is 2-3 over its last 5; COL is 0-5.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
SF has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
SF is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

★ best

-154DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 58.0%

COL

no live price

Book	SF	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-154★	+128	+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

COL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
6.1± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.4± 2.3low
Logan WebbSF
5.3± 1.7low

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 1.2high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 0.8high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Casey SchmittSF
2.4± 2.2high
Willy AdamesSF
2.4± 2.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Casey SchmittSF
0.9± 1.3high
Rafael DeversSF
0.8± 1.6high
Harrison BaderSF
0.7± 1.7high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.8± 3.8low
Logan WebbSF
3.4± 2.6low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Fri, May 29

SF★

Giants

26-33

vs61.1%SF

COL

Rockies

20-43

SF 61.1%win prob38.9% COL

SF 1481 · COL 1376Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
W. Adames★SS	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.457
L. Arraez★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
C. Schmitt★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Devers★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Chapman★3B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Lee★RF	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
D. Susac★C	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. Eldridge★DH	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	2	0
H. Bader★CF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.662
Team	9-28	28	3	9	3	0	3	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

2-4

1-4

1-3

0-4

3-4

0-2

1-1

1-3

Team

9-28

	Pitching
L. Webb★SP	4.1	3	1	1	3	5	0
M. GageRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. PegueroRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. WinnRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	7.0	6	1	1	3	7	0

Pitching

Player

4.1

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.1

Team

7.0

	Batting
J. McCarthy★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT29.698
T. Freeman★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.148
T. Rumfield★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.85
H. Goodman★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.148
T. Johnston★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Castro★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.969
E. Tovar★SS	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. Julien★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Stevens2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	6-27	27	1	6	0	0	3	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

J. McCarthy★LF

1-4