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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2COL
ARI

ARI

21-23

2
4
COL

COL

18-28

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
34,405 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 11.5

COL no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0-0.5COL SPREADO/U 12.0O/U 10.5TOTAL47.7%39.7%COL NO-VIG %May 15, 5 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

ARI 2 · COL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0100100002
COL210000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.2pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best
+135DraftKings

edge +21.2pp · implied 40.0%

COL

no live price

BookARICOLBest edge
DraftKings+135★-177+21.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.07

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasARI -144

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 4–2.

COL +1.5 cashed (ARI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 11.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI21-23
2
4
COL18-28
ARI21-23·COL18-28
ARI

ARI

21-23

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-44120010
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33011021
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010010
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-33000001
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-44000000
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT25.818
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT29.597
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-33000000
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
1-33010011
AA. Del CastilloDH
0-11000000
Team9-3333291054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
5.1933060
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.2000000
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0100000
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0000010
Team8.01244170
COL

COL

18-28

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.969
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
2-44220001
SPRINT28.483
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-33011010
SPRINT24.85
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
2-44020001
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-33012001
SPRINT2872
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-44010001
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
0-33000001
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-44110000
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
2-33021000
SPRINT29.698
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-11000001
Team12-33334124017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
5.0722210
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.2000200
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.1100020
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
1.0100110
Team9.0922540

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    91 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      45%·91.7 mph·26% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      12%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.6 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      63%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      43%·84.8 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      75%·89.1 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • T. Sugano
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.9 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.0 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      15%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    35 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      51%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      6%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Senzatela
    27 pitches·15% CSW
    • FC
      44%·91.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      26%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hill
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      35%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·85.8 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

12

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4today
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4today
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

11.5

High-scoring · +3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI-14459%
COLCOL+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

11.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 9 H

COLCOL
J. McCarthy

J. McCarthy

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

COL beat ARI 4-2.

Win probability

COL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 64% WP

Doyle · hit a ground rule double, Castro to third.

ARITop 5th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 43% WP

Carroll · doubled to right, Marte scored.

COLTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+10pp→ 78% WP

Perdomo · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0100100002
COL21000001—4

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · COL won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Rumfield 1

1
1

Inn 2

McCann 1

McCarthy 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Moniak 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
COL

Play-by-play · 600 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  2. T9

    Perdomo flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  13. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  14. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  15. T9

    Carroll struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

    +8pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  22. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  23. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  24. T9

    Marte walked, Waldschmidt to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

    −8pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  29. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

  30. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·COL 4

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

2

Runs

4

9

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

12

TB

14

0

HR

0

5

BB

1

4

K

7

17

LOB

21

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 11.5·ARI -144/COL +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 94
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    181
    27(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 92
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 89
    181
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 88
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 87
    111
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

COL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.8± 2.0low

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    38.4%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    36.4%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.6%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872