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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAA
TEX

TEX

24-28

1
2
LAA

LAA

20-34

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
36,903 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open -1.5 · +3.0

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAA no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.3%

+2.0-2.0LAA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL57.3%49.3%LAA NO-VIG %May 24, 3 AMMay 24, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TEX 1 · LAA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0100000001
LAA0010000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.6pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
-148DraftKings

edge +4.6pp · implied 56.0%

LAA

no live price

BookTEXLAABest edge
DraftKings-148★+113+4.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesLAA win series 3-0/VegasLAA -125

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Texas Rangers, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Alejandro Osuna

Alejandro Osuna

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Wade Meckler

Wade Meckler

OF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX24-28
1
2
LAA20-34
TEX24-28·LAA20-34
TEX

TEX

24-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000001
SPRINT27.662
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
1-44010002
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000012
SPRINT28.278
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT2744
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-33000002
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-33000003
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
0-33000001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-22000001
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-33000002
A. OsunaA. OsunaLF
1-11010000
SPRINT2872
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-11000000
Team3-30301311116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
6.0111270
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
2.0200040
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
0.2110010
Team8.24212120
LAA

LAA

20-34

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000004
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44011002
SPRINT28.688
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-44000001
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT2622
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
0-22000001
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-22100010
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000010
W. MecklerW. MecklerOF
1-11010000
Team4-30302410212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP
8.01110141
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0200120
Team9.03111161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • M. Gore
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      35%·82.3 mph·53% whiff
    • FF
      34%·95.6 mph·28% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    34 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      47%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      32%·86.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Collyer
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      29%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.4 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • R. Detmers
    96 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.3 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.8 mph·61% whiff
    • CU
      8%·72.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Bachman
    27 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      52%·89.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·99.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 3-0

May 23TEXTEX6@LAALAA9
May 24TEXTEX2@LAALAA5
May 24TEXTEX1@LAALAA2today

Season series

LAA lead series 3-0

May 23TEXTEX6@LAALAA9
May 24TEXTEX2@LAALAA5
May 24TEXTEX1@LAALAA2today
Jul 8LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 9LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 10LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 11TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 12TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 13TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 14TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 22LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 22LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 23LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+10449%
LAALAA-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TEXTEX
A. Osuna

A. Osuna

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
W. Meckler

W. Meckler

OF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Detmers

R. Detmers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 14 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it ended

LAA beat TEX 2-1. Peraza's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

LAA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 55% WP

Trout · singled to right, Rivero scored, Frazier to third.

LAATop 9th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 63% WP

Burger · struck out swinging.

LAABottom 9th Inning · 1-2
+31pp→ 100% WP

Peraza · grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walton scored on throwing error by second baseman Foscue, Adell out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0100000001
LAA0010000012

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · LAA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Burger 1

0
1

Inn 3

Trout 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Peraza 1

TEX
LAA

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 2

  2. B9

    Peraza grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walton scored on throwing error by second baseman Foscue, Adell out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 2

    +31pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  9. B9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Oswald Peraza

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 2

  10. B9

    Walton ran for Soler

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  11. B9

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  12. B9

    Adell hit by pitch, Soler to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

    +7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  15. B9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Jo Adell

    · ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  16. B9

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  17. B9

    Soler singled to left.

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

    +5pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  22. B9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Jorge Soler

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  23. B9

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  24. B9

    Grissom struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

    −6pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

  30. B9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Vaughn Grissom

    ·

    TEX 1·LAA 1

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

1

Runs

2

3

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

6

TB

4

1

HR

0

1

BB

2

16

K

12

3

LOB

7

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·TEX +104/LAA -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.28

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

46.7%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    45.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.4%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.9%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 21, 26sim 97
    113
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 95
    111
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 93
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 89
    260
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 89
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 89
    123
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs