MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Gonzales homered to center (407 feet), Reynolds scored. → win prob 83→92% PIT · leverage low · next play ≈ ±2pp

BOT 5TH+5PIT

MIN

27-32

PIT

31-28

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 50-10 outs

Pitcher· MIN

Z. Matthews

4.0 IP, 6 K, 5 ER

Batter· PIT

R. O'Hearn

1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI

LastPitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

73.8%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 52.5% PIT

MIN 0 · 5 PIT

PIT +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsPIT leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingPITBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+9pp→ 92% WP
Gonzales · homered to center (407 feet), Reynolds scored.
SwingPITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 87% WP
Triolo · singled to right, Cruz scored, Mangum to third.
SwingPITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 76% WP
O'Hearn · homered to right (354 feet).

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.12

Z. Matthews

1-2 · 2.37 ERA

B. Ashcraft

4-2 · 2.75 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.9%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+45.4ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.7pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +6.7pp · implied 40.8%

PIT

no live price

Book	MIN	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+130★	-171	+6.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

PIT vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.1low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.6± 3.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.5± 3.1low

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 1.0high
Luke KeaschallMIN
1.1± 0.9high
Orlando ArciaMIN
1.1± 1.3low

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.1± 1.9high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.1± 2.0high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.7± 0.8high
Oneil CruzPIT
0.7± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.0± 3.1low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.7± 2.7low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

MIN

Twins

36-34

vs52.5%PIT

PIT★

Pirates

32-31

MIN 47.5%win prob52.5% PIT

PIT 1489 · MIN 1488Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
A. Martin★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.867
B. Lee★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT26.428
K. Clemens★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.457
J. Bell★DH	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.18
T. Larnach★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Arcia★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.688
T. Gray★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Jackson★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	3-17	17	0	3	0	0	0	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-2

0-2

2-2

0-2

0-2

1-2

0-2

0-1

Team

3-17

	Pitching
Z. Matthews★SP	4.0	6	5	5	2	6	2
Team	4.0	6	5	5	2	6	2

Pitching

Player

Z. Matthews★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
S. Horwitz★1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.85
B. Lowe★2B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
B. Reynolds★LF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. O'Hearn★RF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.735
N. Gonzales★3B	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT28.586
O. Cruz★CF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Mangum★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Triolo★3B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT28.483
H. Davis★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	6-18	18	5	6	5	2	2	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI