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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIN
HOU

HOU

20-31

1
4
MIN

MIN

23-27

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
23,522 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

58.3%

open 59.3% · -1.0

-1.0-2.0MIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL63.3%54.3%MIN NO-VIG %MODEL 58.5%May 19, 5 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

HOU 1 · MIN 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
MIN010300004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.2pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

HOU

no live price

MIN

★ best
-150DraftKings

edge +2.2pp · implied 56.3%

BookHOUMINBest edge
DraftKings+115-150★+2.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 98
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 96
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    202
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    262
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -136

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Houston Astros, 4–1.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Cam Smith

Cam Smith

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU20-31
1
4
MIN23-27
HOU20-31·MIN23-27
HOU

HOU

20-31

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-44010003
SPRINT28.483
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.18
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000000
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000002
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-44000003
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
1-33110002
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33000003
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
2-33020000
SPRINT29.395
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
1-22011000
SPRINT22.90
Z. ColeZ. ColeLF
0-11000001
Team5-32321510015
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
6.0644322
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0000010
N. PearsonN. PearsonRP
1.0000000
Team8.0644332
MIN

MIN

23-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-33000000
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-44000000
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000011
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.457
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-44000000
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
2-44221101
SPRINT24.22
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-11110020
SPRINT26.428
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
1-33113100
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
Team6-2929464233
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
6.0411090
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
2.0100050
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
1.0000010
Team9.05110150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • M. Burrows
    88 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      41%·85.9 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.5 mph·67% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      31%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
  • N. Pearson
    11 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·98.8 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    99 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.5 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.5 mph·43% whiff
    • KC
      14%·79.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      3%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    36 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.9 mph·63% whiff
    • ST
      36%·84.3 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morris
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      70%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 18HOUHOU3@MINMIN6
May 19HOUHOU2@MINMIN1
May 20HOUHOU1@MINMIN4today

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

May 18HOUHOU3@MINMIN6
May 19HOUHOU2@MINMIN1
May 20HOUHOU1@MINMIN4today
Jun 30MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 1MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 2MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+11347%
MINMIN-13658%

↗7· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Smith

C. Smith

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

MINMIN
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIN beat HOU 4-1. Kreidler's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

MIN vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 48% WP

Vázquez singled to center, Dezenzo scored, Smith to second.

MINBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 65% WP

Caratini · homered to center (406 feet).

MINBottom 4th Inning · 1-4
+25pp→ 89% WP

Kreidler · homered to left center (416 feet), Caratini scored and Gray scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
MIN01030000—4

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Caratini 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Kreidler 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
MIN

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  2. T9

    Meyers grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  4. T9

    Andrew Morris pitches to Jake Meyers

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  5. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  6. T9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

    +0.9pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  10. T9

    Andrew Morris pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  11. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  12. T9

    Alvarez fouled out to third.

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  19. T9

    Andrew Morris pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  20. T9

    Morris relieved Gómez

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  23. B8

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  24. B8

    Caratini grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  28. B8

    Nate Pearson pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  29. B8

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

  30. B8

    Keaschall lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 1·MIN 4

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

1

Runs

4

5

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

5

TB

13

0

HR

2

0

BB

3

15

K

3

9

LOB

11

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 7.5·HOU +113/MIN -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    58.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.3%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278