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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIA
WSH

WSH

19-22

2
5
MIA

MIA

19-22

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
11,848 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%MIA NO-VIG %May 9, 6 PMMay 10, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

WSH 2 · MIA 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0001100002
MIA002000035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, May 10·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -137

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Washington Nationals, 5–2.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH19-22
2
5
MIA19-22
WSH19-22·MIA19-22
WSH

WSH

19-22

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-44121000
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44001000
SPRINT2872
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000003
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000001
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT26.838
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-22000010
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-11000020
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
Team6-3131262035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
5.2422140
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1000000
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0000010
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
0.1233210
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
0.2000010
Team8.0655370
MIA

MIA

19-22

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-33011000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44001001
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-22000010
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-22110011
SPRINT27.765
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44111002
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
2-44022000
SPRINT28.483
J. MackJ. Mack★C
0-33100011
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-44000000
Team6-3030565037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.0522230
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
2.0000100
A. NardiA. NardiRP
0.2100020
J. EknessJ. EknessRP
0.1000000
Team9.0622350

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • KC
      42%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      28%·95.9 mph·7% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.6 mph·17% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      30%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.0 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    89 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      26%·90.8 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      26%·96.9 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.2 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      6%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      68%·91.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      16%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Ekness
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      67%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

May 8WSHWSH3@MIAMIA2
May 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA8
May 10WSHWSH2@MIAMIA5today

Season series

MIA leads series 2-1

May 8WSHWSH3@MIAMIA2
May 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA8
May 10WSHWSH2@MIAMIA5today
Jun 1MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 2MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 3MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 21WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 22WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 23WSHWSH@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 28MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 29MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 30MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 31MIAMIA@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+11447%
MIAMIA-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 8th Inning

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat WSH 5-2. Morel's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 4th Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 34% WP

Garc · ía Jr. tripled to right.

WSHTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 48% WP

Garc · ía Jr. doubled to left, Vivas scored, Wood to third.

MIABottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+21pp→ 89% WP

Morel · singled to center, Ruiz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0001100002
MIA00200003—5

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · MIA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Hicks 1

1
0

Inn 4

House 1

1
0

Inn 5

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Hern 2

0

Inn 9

WSH
MIA

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  2. T9

    Mead lined out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  6. T9

    Josh Ekness pitches to Curtis Mead

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  7. T9

    Ekness relieved Nardi

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  8. T9

    Mead hit for Vivas

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  9. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  10. T9

    Young struck out swinging.

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  17. T9

    Andrew Nardi pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  18. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  19. T9

    Lile singled to right.

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

    −2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  24. T9

    Andrew Nardi pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  25. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  26. T9

    Abrams struck out looking.

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

    +2pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·MIA 5

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

2

Runs

5

6

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

11

TB

6

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

5

K

7

12

LOB

16

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +114/MIA -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 10, 26sim 96
    211
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    91
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    36
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 95
    32
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 95
    203
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    59.4%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.1%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.