MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIA

NYM

22-30

MIA

24-29

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

21,071 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

MIA no-vig %

51.1%

open 50.4% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
60.5%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.9%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.1pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

MIA

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +11.1pp · implied 50.4%

Book	NYM	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-112★	+11.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Jared YoungNYM
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

MIA

.663

OPS

.715

▶

.707

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.11

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 1 · MIA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
MIA	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Bichette3B	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Baty3B	.234	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Vientos1B	.237	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Semien2B	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.197	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TaylorCF	.196	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	3	1	0	3	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.251

.217

.294

.234

.237

.250

.218

.206

.197

.196

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. PeraltaSP	7.0	8	4	4	2	9	108
J. PintaroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	8.0	8	4	4	2	9	120

Player

F. PeraltaSP

7.0

108

J. PintaroRP

1.0

Team

8.0

120

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.308	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.279	4	2	2	2	2	0	0
O. LopezSS	.338	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.197	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Norby1B	.222	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
O. CaissieRF	.218	3	0	1	2	0	0	2
G. Pauley3B	.179	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MackC	.220	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		31	4	8	4	2	2	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. MeyerSP	7.0	1	0	0	3	8	95
A. BenderRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	20
A. NardiRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	12
Team	9.0	3	1	1	3	11	127

Team

NYM

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIA vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.