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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1HOU
HOU

HOU

20-30

2
1
MIN

MIN

22-27

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
13,557 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0MIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%51.1%MIN NO-VIG %MODEL 59.2%May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 2 · MIN 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2000000002
MIN0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.0pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

HOU

no live price

MIN

★ best
+175DraftKings

edge +25.0pp · implied 34.2%

BookHOUMINBest edge
DraftKings-234+175★+25.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 97
    211
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 97
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    91
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -138

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

HOU +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU20-30
2
1
MIN22-27
HOU20-30·MIN22-27
HOU

HOU

20-30

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-44120000
SPRINT28.483
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.18
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000000
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
1-33010001
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-33000001
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.867
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-33000002
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000000
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-11000000
Team5-3232252107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AlexanderJ. Alexander★RP
6.0400140
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000030
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.2110000
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0200010
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
0.1000000
Team9.0710180
MIN

MIN

22-27

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-55120001
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-44000000
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT25.18
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010003
SPRINT26.428
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33000011
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-22000000
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-33000001
O. ArciaO. ArciaSS
1-22010001
Team7-3535170018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
6.0522061
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000000
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
2.0000010
Team9.0522071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • J. Alexander
    80 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.0 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      38%·79.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      18%·89.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      5%·77.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. King
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      38%·80.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      71%·78.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      29%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      50%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.4 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    100 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.8 mph·21% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      1%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Adams
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      37%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      16%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      38%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 18HOUHOU3@MINMIN6
May 19HOUHOU2@MINMIN1today
May 20HOUHOU1@MINMIN4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 18HOUHOU3@MINMIN6
May 19HOUHOU2@MINMIN1today
May 20HOUHOU1@MINMIN4
Jun 30MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 1MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 2MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+11547%
MINMIN-13858%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 9th Inning

HOUHOU
I. Paredes

I. Paredes

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Alexander

J. Alexander

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

HOU beat MIN 2-1. Buxton's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 53% WP

Paredes · homered to left (382 feet), Peña scored.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 27% WP

Buxton · scored on error, Bell safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Shewmake.

HOUBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 100% WP

Buxton · fouled out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2000000002
MIN0000000101

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

2

Runs

1

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

9

TB

11

1

HR

0

0

BB

1

7

K

8

5

LOB

12

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8.5·HOU +115/MIN -138

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIN vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · MIN won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Paredes 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Buxton 1

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
MIN

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  3. B9

    Buxton fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  5. B9

    Keaschall to second on wild pitch by Abreu, Arcia to third on wild pitch by Abreu.

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  6. B9

    Keaschall to second on wild pitch by Abreu, Arcia to third on wild pitch by Abreu.

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  13. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Byron Buxton

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  14. B9

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  15. B9

    Keaschall hit by pitch, Arcia to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

    +8pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  18. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Luke Keaschall

    · ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  19. B9

    Abreu relieved King

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  20. B9

    Keaschall hit for Outman

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  21. B9

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  22. B9

    Arcia singled to right.

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

    +5pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  26. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Orlando Arcia

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  27. B9

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  28. B9

    Caratini grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

    −9pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

  30. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    HOU 2·MIN 1

Player projections

MIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    59.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483