• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1NYM
NYM

NYM

22-28

2
1
WSH

WSH

25-26

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
17,291 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

48.9%

open 49.6% · -0.7

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL53.6%44.9%WSH NO-VIG %May 20, 6 PMMay 21, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 2 · WSH 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0020000002
WSH0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+30.5pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

WSH

★ best
+255DraftKings

edge +30.5pp · implied 26.5%

BookNYMWSHBest edge
DraftKings-360+255★+30.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 21·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYM -112

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (NYM won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brett Baty

Brett Baty

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM22-28
2
1
WSH25-26
NYM22-28·WSH25-26
NYM

NYM

22-28

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-55010002
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44012002
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33000011
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
0-22000012
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-22100001
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44110000
SPRINT26.428
Team6-32322620212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.0411330
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.0000000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000020
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000110
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100010
Team9.0511470
WSH

WSH

25-26

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT26.838
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-22001010
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-22000020
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-33000010
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000000
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-33000001
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
2-44120000
SPRINT25.411
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
0-11000001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
0-11000000
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
0-11000001
Team5-3232151047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
7.0422190
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000120
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0200010
Team9.06222120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    82 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      28%·92.7 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.8 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      65%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      36%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      58%·84.0 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      42%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·90.9 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    84 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      26%·86.5 mph·46% whiff
    • ST
      14%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      42%·85.8 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      80%·84.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

2

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1today

Season series

WSH leads series 4-3

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4
May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1today
Aug 14WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 15WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 16WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 25NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 26NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 27NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

NYMNYM-11253%
WSHWSH-10852%

↗3· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 9th Inning

NYMNYM
B. Baty

B. Baty

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat WSH 2-1. Lile's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 71% WP

Bichette · singled to center, Melendez scored and Torrens scored, Benge to second.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+28pp→ 44% WP

Lile · doubled to center.

NYMBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 100% WP

Ruiz · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0020000002
WSH0000100001

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Bichette 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Chaparro 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  3. B9

    Ruiz grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

    −15pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Keibert Ruiz

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  6. B9

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  7. B9

    Tena struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

    −25pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  14. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Jose Tena

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  15. B9

    Tena hit for Nuñez

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  16. B9

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  17. B9

    García Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Lile to third.

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

    −3pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    · ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  22. B9

    García Jr. hit for Young

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  23. B9

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  24. B9

    Lile doubled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

    +28pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  27. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  28. B9

    Williams relieved Weaver

    ·

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·WSH 1

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·WSH 1

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

2

Runs

1

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

2

6

TB

7

0

HR

0

2

BB

4

12

K

7

18

LOB

16

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8·NYM -112/WSH -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.55

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 8, 26sim 97
    30
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 97
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    211
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    36
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    57.6%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.2%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.