MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 5TH+3TB

27-13

TOR

18-23

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

69.0%

TB wins · current

Pre-game: 57.1% TB

TB 3 · 0 TOR

TB +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsTOR leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTBTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 75% WP
Mullins · singled to center, Caminero scored and Williamson scored.
Lead flipTBTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 53% WP
DeLuca · doubled to right, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.20

S. McClanahan

4-2 · 2.60 ERA

P. Corbin

1-1 · 3.60 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

46.8%

open 48.3% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
42.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.7%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-41.9ppvs pre-game · TB favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like TB.

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+5.4

pp edge · TB

+1.48

CLV pp

1.7u · medium

on TB

57.2%

±6.2pp band

1.67u medium — +3.1pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.5pp

+0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

6.7%

1.7% sized

Decimal

1.85

+3.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.4pp · TB over TOR

▼
Travel burden58% conf
TB is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-2.3pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
TB grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+1.9pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
TB's venue form is 15pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.7pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
TB is 4-1 over its last 5; TOR is 2-3.
+1.7pp
▲
Line steam69% conf
The market moved 1.5pp toward TB since open.
+1.2pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TB has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+1.2pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.2pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

no live price

TOR

★ best

+402DraftKings

edge +24.2pp · implied 18.7%

Book	TB	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-640	+402★	+24.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.3± 3.7low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.4± 2.7low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.3± 4.2low

Hits

Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 1.4high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 0.9high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.5± 2.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.8± 1.8high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.7± 1.1high
Andres GimenezTOR
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Aaron BrooksTB
3.0± 3.3low
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.4± 2.4low
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.0± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Tue, May 12

TB★

Rays

31-13

vs57.1%TB

TOR

Blue Jays

18-27

TB 57.1%win prob42.9% TOR

TB 1558 · TOR 1484Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
Y. Diaz★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda★1B	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.29
J. Caminero★3B	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
R. Vilade★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. DeLuca★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT2993
B. Williamson★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.381
C. Mullins★CF	1-3	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT27.662
N. Fortes★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Walls★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9-24	24	3	9	3	0	1	2

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

2-3

2-3

1-3

1-3

1-2

1-3

1-2

0-2

Team

9-24

	Pitching
S. McClanahan★SP	4.0	1	0	0	1	5	0
Team	4.0	1	0	0	1	5	0

Pitching

Player

S. McClanahan★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
G. Springer★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.920
M. Straw★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.597
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.123
K. Okamoto★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.123
L. Sosa★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
E. Clement★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Varsho★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Schneider★LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Valenzuela★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	1-14	14	0	1	0	0	1	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

G. Springer★DH

0-2