Starter edge
4.02 ERA
Bryan Woo vs Tatsuya Imai - 7.27 ERA
Woo owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving SEA cleaner opening script tonight.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
SEA
SEA
20-22
PregameTue, 8:10 PM EDT
HOU
HOU
16-26
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 11.29
B. Woo
2-2 · 4.02 ERA
vs
T. Imai
1-0 · 7.27 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
HOU spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
HOU no-vig %
41.7%
open 42.8% · -1.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Bryan Woo
SP · #22
2-2
W-L
4.02
ERA
1.00
WHIP
38
K
47.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLW(2-2)6.0 IP0 ER9 K
vsKC-6.0 IP6 ER2 K
@STL-3.0 IP7 ER1 K
Home starter
Tatsuya Imai
SP · #45
1-0
W-L
7.27
ERA
2.08
WHIP
13
K
8.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-0.1 IP3 ER0 K
@ATHW(1-0)5.2 IP0 ER9 K
vsLAA-2.2 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-180 / +148
Model edge
Win prob54% / 46%
LeanAway · 4pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSEA leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Pick a side.
Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
SEA
- 1.B. Donovan3B
- 2.J. RodriguezCF
- 3.J. Naylor1B
- 4.C. RaleighC
- 5.R. ArozarenaLF
- 6.L. RaleyRF
- 7.J.P. CrawfordSS
- 8.D. CanzoneDH
- 9.C. Young2B
HOU
- 1.J. Altuve2B
- 2.Y. AlvarezDH
- 3.I. Paredes3B
- 4.C. Walker1B
- 5.C. SmithRF
- 6.Z. DezenzoLF
- 7.B. ShewmakeSS
- 8.B. MatthewsCF
- 9.C. VazquezC
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs SEA.
HOU has dropped 3 straight; SEA is 4-6 over its last 10.
45.8%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU4–6-1.0
- SEA4–6-0.3
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- SEA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; SEA has 4.
Model angle
+7.2ppon HOU
HOU's edge is mostly travel burden plus model confidence. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▼Venue split-1.5pp
- ▲Travel burden+1.1pp
Players to watch
- Julio RodriguezSEA2.6total bases · ±2.4
Julio Rodriguez · 2.6 TB · last-10 3.1 vs season 1.8.
- Josh NaylorSEA1.7total bases · ±1.7
Josh Naylor · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.5.
- Christian WalkerHOU1.6total bases · ±2.1
Christian Walker · 1.6 TB · last-10 1.4 vs season 1.9.
Head-to-head · 0-5 · last 5
HOU is 0-5 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-04-11HOU @ SEA6–9
- 2026-04-12HOU @ SEA1–6
- 2026-04-12HOU @ SEA7–8
- 2026-04-13HOU @ SEA2–6
- 2026-05-11SEA @ HOU3–1
Line move
open +123→+129toward SEA
The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
45.8%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.7%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.81 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
HOU vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 58 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Emerson HancockSEA6.3± 4.9low
- Spencer ArrighettiHOU6.0± 3.9low
- Peter LambertHOU5.8± 3.1low
Hits
- Julio RodriguezSEA1.3± 0.7high
- Josh NaylorSEA1.2± 0.8high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Julio RodriguezSEA2.6± 2.4high
- Braden ShewmakeHOU1.9± 2.6low
- Josh NaylorSEA1.7± 1.7high
RBIs
- Luke RaleySEA0.9± 2.3high
- Zach ColeHOU0.7± 1.5low
- Julio RodriguezSEA0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Lance McCullers Jr.HOU4.0± 2.5low
- Luis CastilloSEA3.5± 3.5low
- Mike BurrowsHOU3.1± 2.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelLean
Tue, May 12SEA★
Mariners
20-26
vs54.2%SEA
HOU
Astros
15-30
SEA 54.2%win prob45.8% HOU
SEA 1498 · HOU 1445Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
