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Live · 16
  • MLBMid 4
    DET 2@NYM 2
    -2.9pphigh
  • MLBBot 3
    MIA 0@MIN 0
    +14.9pphigh
  • MLBEnd 1
    SEA 0@HOU 0
    -5.3ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    LAA 1@CLE 2
    +33.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 5
    CHC 2@ATL 1
    -39.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    SD 0@MIL 1
    +22.3ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    ARI 0@TEX 1
    +11.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    COL 0@PIT 2
    +30.8pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    PHI 2@BOS 0
    -47.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    KC 2@CHW 0
    -34.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    TB 3@TOR 0
    -41.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 6@BAL 2
    -43.4pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    WSH 7@CIN 2
    -62.3pplow
  • NBA7:48 - 1st
    MIN 9@SA 17
    +13.4ppmedium
  • WNBAEnd of 1st
    ATL 19@DAL 21
  • NHL19:03 - 2nd
    BUF 1@MTL 2
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THE ONE Analytics
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MIA logo
MIA
0
LiveBot 3rd
MIN logo
MIN
0
Updated 8:26 PM ET
BOT 3RDTied
MIA

MIA

19-22

0
0
MIN

MIN

18-23

Live · model leanBot 3rdPolls every 30s

50.1%

MIA wins · current

Pre-game: 50.3% MIA

MIA 0 · 0 MIN

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 3
away leadsMIN leads
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.20

E. Perez

2-4 · 5.01 ERA

vs

B. Ober

3-2 · 4.19 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

MIN no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL55.1%46.4%MIN NO-VIG %MODEL 49.7%May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelTossup
Tue, May 12
MIA

MIA★

Marlins

23-22

vs50.3%MIA

MIN

Twins

23-24

MIN
MIA 50.3%win prob49.7% MIN
MIA 1501 · MIN 1475Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIA

no live price

MIN

no live price

BookMIAMINBest edge
DraftKings-110-118+1.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Live · model intelligence

62% confidence

Win prob · home

64.6%

+14.9ppvs pre-game · MIN favored

Leverage

55

high

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Tue, May 12·Bot 3rd/VegasMIA -115
Updated 0s ago

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

0.000OPS

2-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 3rdTied
MIA19-22
0
0
MIN18-23
MIA19-22·MIN18-23
MIA

MIA

19-22

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-22000001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-11000000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-11000001
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-11000000
SPRINT2622
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-11000000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-11010000
SPRINT27.765
C. MorelC. Morel★LF
0-11000000
J. MackJ. Mack★C
0-11000001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-11000001
Team1-1010010004
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
2.1000140
Team2.1000140
MIN

MIN

18-23

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-22000000
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-11000001
SPRINT26.632
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-11000001
SPRINT26.326
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-11000000
SPRINT25.18
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-11000000
SPRINT27.867
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-00000000
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-11000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-11000001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-00000010
Team0-88000014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
3.0100040
Team3.0100040

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    44 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.9 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·88.2 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    36 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      42%·83.5 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      31%·89.3 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      17%·76.7 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      3%·72.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

0

0

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Season series

May 12MIAMIA@MINMINtoday
May 13MIAMIA@MINMINupcoming
May 14MIAMIA@MINMINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA-11553%
MINMIN-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
MIAMIASP
E. Perez

E. Perez

#39 · 2-4

ERA

5.01

K

45

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vsBALBAL5.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 KL(2-4)
5/1vsPHIPHI5.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KL(2-3)
4/25@SFSF5.1 IP · 4 ER · 6 KL(2-2)
VS
MINMINSP
B. Ober

B. Ober

#17 · 3-2

ERA

4.19

K

32

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@WSHWSH5.0 IP · 5 ER · 3 KL(3-2)
4/30vsTORTOR6.0 IP · 1 ER · 2 KW(3-1)
4/25@TBTB6.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KL(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
MIAMIA4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    X. Edwards

    2B · #9

    B
  2. 2

    L. Hicks

    1B · #34

    L
  3. 3

    O. Lopez

    SS · #6

    R
  4. 4

    K. Stowers

    RF · #28

    L
  5. 5

    C. Norby

    3B · #1

    R
  6. 6

    J. Marsee

    CF · #87

    L
  7. 7

    C. Morel

    DH · #5

    R
  8. 8

    J. Mack

    C · #80

    L
  9. 9

    H. Hernandez

    LF · #13

    R
MINMIN2L · 5R · 2S
  1. 1

    B. Buxton

    CF · #25

    R
  2. 2

    T. Larnach

    LF · #9

    L
  3. 3

    R. Jeffers

    C · #27

    R
  4. 4

    J. Bell

    DH · #56

    B
  5. 5

    A. Martin

    RF · #16

    R
  6. 6

    L. Keaschall

    2B · #15

    R
  7. 7

    K. Clemens

    1B · #2

    L
  8. 8

    B. Lee

    SS · #22

    B
  9. 9

    R. Lewis

    3B · #23

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 3rd
Game flowMIA ↔ MIN

Recent swing: 5pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Ball 2

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 12 K · 0 ER

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

0-for-2 · 0.000 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 0 ER

Linescore (innings)

Team123R
MIA0000
MIN0000

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

0

Runs

0

1

Hits

0

1

Errors

0

1

TB

0

0

HR

0

0

BB

1

4

K

4

1

LOB

5

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 9·MIA -115/MIN -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIN vs MIA

0255075100I2I3

Play-by-play · 154 plays

period
event
player
  1. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  2. B3

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  3. B3

    Eury Perez pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  4. B3

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  5. B3

    Buxton fouled out to second.

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

    −3pp

  6. B3

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  7. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  8. B3

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  9. B3

    Eury Perez pitches to Byron Buxton

    · ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  10. B3

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  11. B3

    Lewis walked.

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

    +5pp

  12. B3

    Pitch 9 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  13. B3

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  14. B3

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  15. B3

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  16. B3

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  17. B3

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  18. B3

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  19. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  20. B3

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  21. B3

    Eury Perez pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  22. B3

    Bottom of the 3rd inning

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  23. M3

    Middle of the 3rd inning

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  24. T3

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  25. T3

    Edwards struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

    +0.8pp

  26. T3

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  27. T3

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  28. T3

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  29. T3

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

  30. T3

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·MIN 0

Player projections

MIN vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Eury PerezMIA
    5.6± 2.5low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    5.6± 1.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    5.3± 1.3low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 0.9high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Austin MartinMIN
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    3.0± 2.8high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.3± 1.4high
  • Ryan JeffersMIN
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.9± 1.1high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.8± 2.3low
  • Eury PerezMIA
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872