Starter edge
3.46 ERA
Will Warren vs Trevor Rogers - 4.75 ERA
Warren owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving NYY cleaner opening script tonight.
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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY
NYY
26-16
PregameTue, 6:35 PM EDT
BAL
BAL
19-23
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.21
W. Warren
4-1 · 3.46 ERA
vs
T. Rogers
2-3 · 4.75 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
BAL spread
PK
open PK
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 9.0 · -0.5
BAL no-vig %
40.0%
open 40.3% · -0.3
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Will Warren
SP · #29
4-1
W-L
3.46
ERA
1.20
WHIP
53
K
41.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEXL(4-1)4.0 IP6 ER7 K
vsBALW(4-0)6.1 IP1 ER9 K
@HOUW(3-0)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Trevor Rogers
SP · #28
2-3
W-L
4.75
ERA
1.45
WHIP
27
K
30.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSL(2-3)1.2 IP3 ER2 K
@CLEL(2-2)5.0 IP5 ER5 K
vsARIL(2-1)4.2 IP4 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-149 / +123
Model edge
Win prob56% / 44%
LeanAway · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesBAL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take NYY on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
BAL
- 1.G. HendersonSS
- 2.T. WardLF
- 3.A. RutschmanC
- 4.P. Alonso1B
- 5.S. BasalloDH
- 6.T. O'NeillRF
- 7.D. BeaversCF
- 8.C. Mayo3B
- 9.J. Jackson2B
Scouting report · pre-game
BAL vs NYY.
BAL is 4-6 recently; NYY is 5-5.
44.4%
model · BAL win prob
Recent form
- BAL4–6-2.3
- NYY5–5+2.0
Situational
- BAL1d restB2B
- NYY1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; NYY has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.2pp
Players to watch
- Ben RiceNYY2.4total bases · ±2.5
Ben Rice · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 2.4.
- Cody BellingerNYY2.4total bases · ±3.3
Cody Bellinger · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.8 vs season 1.8.
- Aaron JudgeNYY2.3total bases · ±2.0
Aaron Judge · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 2.3.
Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5
BAL is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-01BAL @ NYY2–7
- 2026-05-02BAL @ NYY4–9
- 2026-05-03BAL @ NYY3–11
- 2026-05-04BAL @ NYY1–12
- 2026-05-11NYY @ BAL2–3
Line move
open +137→+139toward NYY
The market has moved 0.4pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.5%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
44.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.9%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.65 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
BAL vs NYY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 67 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Ryan WeathersNYY6.7± 3.0low
- Cam SchlittlerNYY6.6± 1.9low
- Will WarrenNYY6.6± 3.3low
Hits
- Cody BellingerNYY1.2± 1.3high
- Samuel BasalloBAL1.1± 0.8high
- Ben RiceNYY1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Ben RiceNYY2.4± 2.5high
- Cody BellingerNYY2.4± 3.3high
- Aaron JudgeNYY2.3± 2.0high
RBIs
- Cody BellingerNYY1.0± 1.6high
- Aaron JudgeNYY0.8± 1.3high
- Ben RiceNYY0.8± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Shane BazBAL3.4± 2.2low
- Chris BassittBAL2.7± 3.0low
- Kyle BradishBAL2.7± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelLean
Tue, May 12NYY★
Yankees
27-19
vs55.6%NYY
BAL
Orioles
23-23
NYY 55.6%win prob44.4% BAL
NYY 1556 · BAL 1493Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
