Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at SA?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+29SA

MIN

49-33

97126

62-20

NBATue, May 12FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasSA -10.5

MIN · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #13

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:18

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	36	17	6-17	0-4	5-7	-22	10	1
J. McDanielsF · #3	30	17	6-13	3-7	2-2	-12	6	2
R. GobertC · #27	23	4	1-4	—	2-2	-15	5	0
A. DosunmuG · #13	33	16	7-14	1-4	1-2	-20	9	4
A. EdwardsG · #5	39	20	6-13	1-3	7-7	-9	2	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	3	1	0-1	—	1-2	-7	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #4	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	0	0
J. BeringerF · #19	3	3	0-1	—	3-4	-7	3	0
N. ReidC · #11	31	12	4-10	3-7	1-2	-21	5	2
M. ConleyG · #10	15	5	2-3	1-2	—	-6	1	2
J. ClarkG · #22	3	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	17	2	0-5	0-4	2-2	-5	0	4
B. HylandG · #8	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	1	0
Team		97	32-83	9-33	24-30		42	17
DNP: J. Ingles

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	8	3-9	2-8	—	+15	4	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	33	27	9-16	2-5	7-9	+24	17	5
D. FoxG · #4	34	18	6-15	1-4	5-5	+24	4	5
D. VassellG · #24	32	12	4-10	2-7	2-3	+22	3	2
S. CastleG · #5	27	17	8-11	0-1	1-3	+4	4	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	4	0	—	—	—	0	1	1
K. OlynykF · #8	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	+4	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	2	3	1-2	1-1	—	+4	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	21	8-11	1-3	4-5	+17	2	0
C. BryantF · #11	12	3	1-1	1-1	—	+9	4	2
B. BiyomboC · #18	2	2	1-2	—	—	+4	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	11	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	3	0	—	—	—	+7	0	2
D. HarperG · #2	25	12	5-10	0-1	2-2	+13	10	2
Team		126	47-89	11-32	21-27		50	25
DNP: M. Plumlee

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

32-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-89

FG %

9-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-27

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA leads series 3-2

May 5

MIN104@

SA102

May 7

MIN95@

SA133

May 9

SA115@

MIN108

May 10

SA109@

MIN114

May 13

MIN97@

SA126today

May 16

SA139@

MIN109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+32024%

SA-41080%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -10.5↗SpreadBet SA -10.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

+1.0 since open

Total

218.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat MIN 126-97. V. Wembanyama paced them with 27 PTS, 17 REB, 5 AST. SA outscored the other side 35-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 32 REB · 9 AST

GS 53

Bench(8)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 12

SAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST

GS 65

Bench(9)

44 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA3rd Quarter · 3:18 · 67-78

+11pp→ 96% WP

Keldon Johnson · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	30	17	26	24	97
SA	34	25	32	35	126

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · SA won 4

Edwards 8

Wembanyama 18

McDaniels 5

Fox 5

Edwards 10

Johnson 13

Randle 9

McDaniels 6

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

39%

32-83

53%

47-89

27%

9-33

3PT

34%

11-32

80%

24-30

78%

21-27

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·13.1
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·15.1
Julian Phillips misses 22-foot running jump shot
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·20.1
Bones Hyland defensive rebound
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·21.7
Joan Beringer blocks Bismack Biyombo 's 2-foot reverse layup
·
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·29.2
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·31.1
Joan Beringer misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·31.1
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 97·SA 126
Q4·31.1
Bismack Biyombo personal foul
MIN 96·SA 126
Q4·38.8
Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carter Bryant assists)
·
MIN 96·SA 126
Q4·47.9
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
MIN 96·SA 123
Q4·50.1
Kyle Anderson misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 96·SA 123
Q4·50.1
Kyle Anderson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 96·SA 123
Q4·50.1
Carter Bryant shooting foul
MIN 95·SA 123
Q4·54.3
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
MIN 95·SA 123
Q4·56.5
Lindy Waters III misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 95·SA 123
Q4·1:08
Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 95·SA 123
Q4·1:08
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 94·SA 123
Q4·1:08
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
MIN 93·SA 123
Q4·1:08
Joan Beringer offensive rebound
MIN 93·SA 123
Q4·1:08
Joan Beringer misses layup
MIN 93·SA 123
Q4·1:19
Bismack Biyombo makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
MIN 93·SA 123
Q4·1:36
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
MIN 93·SA 121
Q4·1:40
Kyle Anderson misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 93·SA 121
Q4·1:50
Lindy Waters III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
MIN 93·SA 121
Q4·2:08
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
MIN 93·SA 118
Q4·2:08
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
MIN 93·SA 118
Q4·2:08
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
MIN 93·SA 118
Q4·2:08
Bones Hyland out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 93·SA 118

Betting line

SA -10.5·O/U 218.5·MIN +320/SA -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 126–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -10.5 cashed (won by 29). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.1%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
74.2%
P(SA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
69.7%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
69.2%
P(SA win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.53

CLV pp

Open price

+330

Close price

+320

Open no-vig

22.3%

Close no-vig

22.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at SA?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.4pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+310DraftKings

edge +2.4pp · implied 23.4%

no live price

Book	MIN	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	+310★	-395	+2.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jaden McDanielsMIN
0.9± 0.4high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · hoopR