MIN
49-33
SA
62-20
75.4%
SA wins · current
Pre-game: 62.7% SA
MIN 44 · 58 SA
SA +14
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2Live · model intelligence
73% confidence
Win prob · home
89.6%
Leverage
27
medium
One swing game
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+13.9pp
best edge · MIN · DraftKings
MIN
★ bestedge +13.9pp · implied 23.4%
SA
no live price
| Book | MIN | SA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +310★ | -395 | +13.9 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 16 players in cohort
MIN · top performer
Ayo Dosunmu
G · #13
9
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
20
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Box score
MIN
49-33
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18 | |
DRIVES1267 TOUCHES54.936 DEFL235 | ||||||||
| 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -18 | |
CONT5.770 DRIVES9.864 TOUCHES58.445 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 18 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 44 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, K. Anderson, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark, B. Hyland | ||||||||
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 14 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +24 | |
| 15 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +12 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| Team | 58 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
56
8
Ast
12
Playoff series
Series tied 2-2
MIN104@SA102MIN95@SA133SA115@MIN108SA109@MIN114MIN@SAtodaySA@MINupcomingMIN@SAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
218.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+32024%SA-41080%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
+1.0 since open
Total
218.5
+2.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
2:24 - 2ndJulius Randle · makes free throw 2 of 2
MINA. Dosunmu
GLeading · 2:24 - 2nd · 15 min
9 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 29 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST
SAV. Wembanyama
FLeading · 2:24 - 2nd · 14 min
20 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 69 PTS · 38 REB · 7 AST
How it's going
SA lead MIN 58-44 (2:24 - 2nd). V. Wembanyama led with 20 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. SA have outscored the other side 24-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
SA vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
32 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
GS 23
Bench(3)
12 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
GS 7
SAstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST
GS 38
Bench(5)
13 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 30 | 14 | 44 |
| SA | 34 | 24 | 58 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · SA won 2
Q1
Edwards 8
Wembanyama 18
Q2
McDaniels 5
Fox 5
Shooting comparison
42%
15-36
FG
56%
22-39
27%
4-15
3PT
40%
6-15
91%
10-11
FT
67%
8-12
Play-by-play · 215 plays
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 44·SA 58
+0.6pp
Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Mike Conley
·
MIN 43·SA 58
Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 43·SA 58
Dylan Harper shooting foul
MIN 42·SA 58
−1pp
Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound
MIN 42·SA 58
Victor Wembanyama misses 8-foot turnaround jump shot
MIN 42·SA 58
Dylan Harper enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
MIN 42·SA 58
Ayo Dosunmu personal foul
MIN 42·SA 58
Ayo Dosunmu makes driving dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)
·
MIN 42·SA 58
Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
MIN 40·SA 58
+0.5pp
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
MIN 40·SA 56
Ayo Dosunmu misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 40·SA 56
+0.5pp
Keldon Johnson offensive foul turnover
MIN 40·SA 56
Keldon Johnson offensive foul
MIN 40·SA 56
−0.6pp
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
MIN 40·SA 56
Naz Reid misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 40·SA 56
+0.5pp
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
MIN 40·SA 56
De'Aaron Fox makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 40·SA 56
+0.7pp
shot clock turnover
MIN 40·SA 54
+0.9pp
Devin Vassell makes alley oop dunk (Harrison Barnes assists)
·
MIN 40·SA 54
+0.8pp
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
MIN 40·SA 52
Ayo Dosunmu misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 40·SA 52
+2pp
Naz Reid enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
MIN 40·SA 52
Harrison Barnes enters the game for Carter Bryant
·
MIN 40·SA 52
Victor Wembanyama enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
MIN 40·SA 52
Spurs Full timeout
MIN 40·SA 52
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 40·SA 52
Dylan Harper shooting foul
MIN 39·SA 52
−2pp
Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound
MIN 39·SA 52
De'Aaron Fox misses two point shot
MIN 39·SA 52
−0.7pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
SA
Home
15-36
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
22-39
42
FG %
56
4-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-15
10-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-12
8
Assists
12
5
Turnovers
7
Betting line
SA -10.5·O/U 218.5·MIN +320/SA -410
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.8%
ensemble · SA favored
Elo Static
62.7%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.9%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
57.8%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.09 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
The receipts
MIN's edge is driven by model confidence. Head to head keeps it from reading cleaner.
+14.5
pp edge · MIN
+0.53
CLV pp
37.3%
±7.8pp band
Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.
Edge
+14.5pp
no calibration shift
Kelly
—
no stake
Decimal
4.20
+13.5pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 14.5pp · MIN over SA
MIN clears the model's lock threshold.
SA has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
Open price
+330
Close price
+320
Open no-vig
22.3%
Close no-vig
22.8%
Market came to the model
