MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 3RD+2KC

19-22

CHW

19-21

Live · model leanBot 3rdPolls every 30s

60.6%

KC wins · current

Pre-game: 52.0% CHW

KC 2 · 0 CHW

KC +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 3

away leadsCHW leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHWBottom 1st Inning · 2-0
+6pp→ 36% WP
Antonacci · safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr..
SwingKCTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 62% WP
Witt Jr. · homered to right (373 feet).

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.29

S. Kolek

1-0 · 4.50 ERA

E. Fedde

0-4 · 3.79 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHW no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.9%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

62% confidence

Win prob · home

17.2%

-34.8ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

medium

One swing game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like CHW.

CHW's edge is driven by venue split. Model confidence keeps it from reading cleaner.

+3.1

pp edge · CHW

0.00

CLV pp

0.0u · small

on CHW

51.3%

±6.3pp band

0.04u small — +0.1pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+2.4pp

-0.7pp post-cal

Kelly

0.1%

0.0% sized

Decimal

1.95

+0.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.1pp · CHW over KC

▼
Model confidence68% conf
CHW sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▲
Venue split64% conf
CHW's venue form is 9.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
KC has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

no live price

CHW

★ best

-105DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 48.9%

Book	KC	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-115	-105★	+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.5± 3.1low
Kris BubicKC
5.9± 3.7low
Michael WachaKC
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.1high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.5high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.3± 2.1high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.9± 2.5high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.8± 1.1high

RBIs

Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.8± 1.0high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.1± 2.3low
Noah SchultzCHW
2.6± 3.6low
Anthony KayCHW
2.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 12

Royals

20-23

vs52.0%CHW

CHW★

White Sox

23-21

KC 48.0%win prob52.0% CHW

CHW 1485 · KC 1495Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
M. Garcia★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.★SS	2-2	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT30.399+
V. Pasquantino★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Perez★C	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT241
C. Jensen★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.457
J. Caglianone★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Collins★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Massey★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Isbel★CF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
Team	5-14	14	2	5	2	2	1	1

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

2-2

0-1

1-2

1-2

0-2

0-1

0-1

1-1

Team

5-14

	Pitching
S. Kolek★SP	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0

Pitching

Player

S. Kolek★SP

2.1

Team

2.1

	Batting
S. Antonacci★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
M. Murakami★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
M. Vargas★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.381
C. Montgomery★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.326
C. Meidroth★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2744
A. Benintendi★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Kelenic★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Peters★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Romo★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0-8	8	0	0	0	0	0	1

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

S. Antonacci★LF

0-1