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    SEA 2@HOU 2
    -2.7pphigh
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    -46.3pplow
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    +41.3ppmedium
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    ARI 1@TEX 3
    +40.9pplow
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    +43.3pplow
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    +49.3pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
ARI logo
ARI
1
LiveTop 5th
TEX logo
TEX
3
Updated 9:13 PM ET
TOP 5TH+2TEX↑
ARI

ARI

20-20

1
3
TEX

TEX

19-22

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

63.3%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 54.7% TEX

ARI 1 · 3 TEX

TEX +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4
away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingTEXBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
    +10pp→ 82% WP

    Duran · homered to right (338 feet).

  • ↑SwingTEXBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
    +9pp→ 77% WP

    Burger · singled to right, Duran scored, Osuna to second.

  • ↑SwingARITop 2nd Inning · 1-1
    +11pp→ 42% WP

    Vargas · homered to left center (422 feet).

  • ↑SwingTEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
    +10pp→ 70% WP

    Pederson · homered to right (380 feet).

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.88

Z. Gallen

1-3 · 4.70 ERA

vs

M. Gore

2-3 · 5.18 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.3% · -1.2

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL60.3%51.1%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 54.7%May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
● Live
ARI1

ARI

Diamondbacks

22-20

vs54.7%TEX

TEX★

Rangers

22-23

TEX1
ARI 45.3%win prob54.7% TEX
TEX 1513 · ARI 1505Box score→

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THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

ARI

no live price

TEX

no live price

BookARITEXBest edge
DraftKings+109-132+0.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

95.6%

+40.9ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

13

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Tue, May 12·Top 5th/SeriesARI leads series 1-0/VegasTEX -132
Updated 0s ago

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas

1B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Ezequiel Duran

Ezequiel Duran

2B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 5th
ARI20-20
1
3
TEX19-22
ARI20-20·TEX19-22
ARI

ARI

20-20

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-22000000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-22000000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-22000001
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-22000001
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-22111100
SPRINT26.941
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-11000010
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-11000000
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★1B
0-11000001
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-11000000
Team1-1414111113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
4.0433232
Team4.0433232
TEX

TEX

19-22

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-22111100
SPRINT25.716
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-22010000
SPRINT28.278
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-22000001
SPRINT24.96
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-22000001
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-22000001
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-11211110
SPRINT28.891
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-11000000
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-11011010
SPRINT2744
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-22000000
Team4-1515343223
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
4.1111131
Team4.1111131

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

4

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI leads series 1-0

May 12ARIARI1@TEXTEX0
May 13ARIARI@TEXTEXtoday
May 14ARIARI@TEXTEXupcoming

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

May 12ARIARI1@TEXTEX0
May 13ARIARI@TEXTEXtoday
May 14ARIARI@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 12TEXTEX@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 13TEXTEX@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 13TEXTEX@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+10948%
TEXTEX-13257%

↗7· 5.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
ARIARISP
Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

#23 · 1-3

ERA

4.70

K

25

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/7vsPITPIT6.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(1-3)
5/1@CHCCHC3.2 IP · 6 ER · 3 KL(1-2)
4/25vsSDSD3.0 IP · 0 ER · 3 K-
VS
TEXTEXSP
M. Gore

M. Gore

#1 · 2-3

ERA

5.18

K

48

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/7@NYYNYY5.1 IP · 5 ER · 3 KL(2-3)
5/1@DETDET3.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-
4/25vsATHATH5.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
ARIARI1L · 5R · 3S
  1. 1

    K. Marte

    2B · #4

    B
  2. 2

    C. Carroll

    RF · #7

    L
  3. 3

    G. Perdomo

    SS · #2

    B
  4. 4

    N. Arenado

    3B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    I. Vargas

    1B · #6

    B
  6. 6

    L. Gurriel Jr.

    LF · #12

    R
  7. 7

    G. Moreno

    C · #14

    R
  8. 8

    J. Fernandez

    DH · #11

    R
  9. 9

    R. Waldschmidt

    CF · #15

    R
TEXTEX5L · 4R
  1. 1

    J. Pederson

    DH · #3

    L
  2. 2

    B. Nimmo

    RF · #24

    L
  3. 3

    C. Seager

    SS · #5

    L
  4. 4

    J. Jung

    3B · #6

    R
  5. 5

    E. Carter

    CF · #32

    L
  6. 6

    E. Duran

    2B · #20

    R
  7. 7

    A. Osuna

    LF · #19

    L
  8. 8

    J. Burger

    1B · #21

    R
  9. 9

    K. Higashioka

    C · #11

    R

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th
Game flowARI ↔ TEX

Recent swing: 10pp · Bottom 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Strike 1 Foul

ARIARI
I. Vargas

I. Vargas

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 5 ER

TEXTEX
E. Duran

E. Duran

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 2 ER

How it's going

TEX lead ARI 3-1 (Top 5th).

Win probability

TEX vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 70% WP

Pederson · homered to right (380 feet).

ARITop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 42% WP

Vargas · homered to left center (422 feet).

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+10pp→ 82% WP

Duran · homered to right (338 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
ARI010001
TEX1101—3

Period scoring

ARI won 0 · TEX won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Pederson 1

1
1

Inn 2

Vargas 1

Burger 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Duran 1

0

Inn 5

ARI
TEX

Play-by-play · 231 plays

period
event
player
  1. T5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  2. T5

    MacKenzie Gore pitches to Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  3. T5

    Top of the 5th inning

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  4. End 4t

    End of the 4th inning

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  5. B4

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  6. B4

    Higashioka grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Burger out at second.

    · ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

    −0.9pp

  7. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  8. B4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  9. B4

    Zac Gallen pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    · ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  10. B4

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  11. B4

    Burger walked.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

    +0.7pp

  12. B4

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  13. B4

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  14. B4

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  15. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  16. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  17. B4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  18. B4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  19. B4

    Zac Gallen pitches to Jake Burger

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  20. B4

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  21. B4

    Osuna flied out to left.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

    −0.8pp

  22. B4

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  23. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  24. B4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  25. B4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  26. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  27. B4

    Zac Gallen pitches to Alejandro Osuna

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  28. B4

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

  29. B4

    Duran homered to right (338 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

    +10pp

  30. B4

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 3

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

3

1

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

4

TB

10

1

HR

2

1

BB

2

3

K

3

2

LOB

7

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8·ARI +109/TEX -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    7.1± 3.3low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    6.1± 3.5low
  • MacKenzie GoreTEX
    6.0± 3.2low

Hits

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.8± 2.0high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.6± 1.6high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    1.5± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Ryan WaldschmidtARI
    0.8± 2.0low
  • Adrian Del CastilloARI
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    4.4± 3.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.0± 3.7low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    2.9± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    54.7%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · 1B
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175