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THE ONE Analytics
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CHC logo
CHC
0
LiveTop 3rd
ATL logo
ATL
0
Updated 7:43 PM ET
TOP 3RDTied
CHC

CHC

27-14

0
0
ATL

ATL

28-13

Live · model leanTop 3rdPolls every 30s

52.3%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 55.7% ATL

CHC 0 · 0 ATL

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 2
away leadsATL leads
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.37

C. Rea

4-1 · 4.03 ERA

vs

G. Holmes

2-1 · 4.34 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

54.2%

open 52.6% · +1.6

+2.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL58.2%48.6%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 55.7%May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
● Live
CHC0

CHC

Cubs

27-17

vs55.7%ATL

ATL★

Braves

30-13

ATL0
CHC 44.3%win prob55.7% ATL
ATL 1568 · CHC 1552Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

ATL

★ best
-122DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 52.6%

BookCHCATLBest edge
DraftKings+102-122★+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Live · model intelligence

62% confidence

Win prob · home

39.4%

-16.3ppvs pre-game · CHC favored

Leverage

57

high

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.63

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-122

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market steamed in our direction

MLB·Tue, May 12·Top 3rd/VegasATL -122
Updated 0s ago

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

0.000OPS

1-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

0.000OPS

1-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 3rdTied
CHC27-14
0
0
ATL28-13
CHC27-14·ATL28-13
CHC

CHC

27-14

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-11000000
SPRINT28.278
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-11000001
SPRINT2622
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-11000000
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-11000000
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-11000001
SPRINT27.457
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-00000010
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-11000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-00000000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-00000000
Team0-66000012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
2.0000000
Team2.0000000
ATL

ATL

28-13

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-11000000
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-11000000
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-11000000
SPRINT25.513
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-11000000
SPRINT27.148
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-11000000
SPRINT26.428
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-11000000
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
0-00000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-00000000
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-00000000
Team0-66000000
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
2.0000120
Team2.0000120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FS
      32%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.7 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      3%·93.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

0

Hits

0

0

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

May 12CHCCHC@ATLATLtoday
May 13CHCCHC@ATLATLupcoming
May 14CHCCHC@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 14ATLATL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 15ATLATL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 16ATLATL@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+10250%
ATLATL-12255%

↘9· 5.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
CHCCHCSP
C. Rea

C. Rea

#53 · 4-1

ERA

4.03

K

35

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vsCINCIN5.1 IP · 1 ER · 5 K-
5/1vsARIARI5.1 IP · 2 ER · 6 KW(4-1)
4/25@LADLAD3.1 IP · 6 ER · 4 KL(3-1)
VS
ATLATLSP
G. Holmes

G. Holmes

#66 · 2-1

ERA

4.34

K

29

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@COLCOL5.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 K-
4/24vsPHIPHI6.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KW(2-1)
4/19@PHIPHI4.2 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
CHCCHC4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    N. Hoerner

    2B · #2

    R
  2. 2

    M. Conforto

    DH · #20

    L
  3. 3

    A. Bregman

    3B · #3

    R
  4. 4

    I. Happ

    LF · #8

    B
  5. 5

    S. Suzuki

    RF · #27

    R
  6. 6

    M. Busch

    1B · #29

    L
  7. 7

    M. Ballesteros

    C · #25

    L
  8. 8

    D. Swanson

    SS · #7

    R
  9. 9

    P. Crow-Armstrong

    CF · #4

    L
ATLATL5L · 3R · 1S
  1. 1

    D. Baldwin

    C · #30

    L
  2. 2

    O. Albies

    2B · #1

    B
  3. 3

    M. Olson

    1B · #28

    L
  4. 4

    M. Harris II

    CF · #23

    L
  5. 5

    M. Dubon

    LF · #14

    R
  6. 6

    A. Riley

    3B · #27

    R
  7. 7

    D. Smith

    DH · #8

    L
  8. 8

    H. Kim

    SS · #7

    R
  9. 9

    M. Yastrzemski

    RF · #18

    L

Live · top performers so far

Top 3rd
Game flowCHC ↔ ATL
Just happened

Pitch · 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

0-for-1 · 0.000 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 0 ER

On pace: 7 IP · 0 K · 0 ER

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

0-for-1 · 0.000 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 0 ER

Win probability

ATL vs CHC

0255075100I2

Linescore (innings)

Team123R
CHC0000
ATL00—0

Play-by-play · 100 plays

period
event
player
  1. T3

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  2. T3

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  3. T3

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  4. T3

    Grant Holmes pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  5. T3

    Top of the 3rd inning

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  6. End 2n

    End of the 2nd inning

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  7. B2

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  8. B2

    Riley flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  9. B2

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  10. B2

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  11. B2

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  12. B2

    Colin Rea pitches to Austin Riley

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  13. B2

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  14. B2

    Dubón grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

    −2pp

  15. B2

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  16. B2

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  17. B2

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  18. B2

    Colin Rea pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  19. B2

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  20. B2

    Harris II flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

    −3pp

  21. B2

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  22. B2

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  23. B2

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  24. B2

    Colin Rea pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  25. B2

    Bottom of the 2nd inning

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  26. M2

    Middle of the 2nd inning

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  27. T2

    · ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  28. T2

    Ballesteros lined out to second.

    · ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

    +2pp

  29. T2

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

  30. T2

    Grant Holmes pitches to Moises Ballesteros

    · ·

    CHC 0·ATL 0

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

0

Runs

0

0

Hits

0

0

Errors

0

0

TB

0

0

HR

0

1

BB

0

2

K

0

1

LOB

0

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC +102/ATL -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

ATL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.0± 3.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.6± 4.5low
  • Bryce ElderATL
    5.9± 3.2low

Hits

  • Drake BaldwinATL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.6± 2.0high
  • Drake BaldwinATL
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Michael BuschCHC
    1.0± 1.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Edward CabreraCHC
    2.5± 2.3low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    55.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · 12
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@ATL 0
    -16.3pphigh
  • MLBTop 1
    KC 0@CHW 0
    -5.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIA 0@MIN 0
    -5.6ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    SD 0@MIL 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    LAA 0@CLE 1
    +29.2ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 4
    COL 0@PIT 1
    +16.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    TB 1@TOR 0
    -30.6ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    PHI 2@BOS 0
    -41.6pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    DET 2@NYM 0
    -29.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    WSH 3@CIN 0
    -61.1pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    NYY 6@BAL 0
    -43.4pplow
  • NHL9:18 - 1st
    BUF 1@MTL 1