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    CHC 0@ATL 0
    -12.2pphigh
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    LAA 0@CLE 1
    +24.7ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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LAA logo
LAA
0
LiveTop 5th
CLE logo
CLE
1
Updated 7:35 PM ET
TOP 5TH+1CLE↑
LAA

LAA

16-26

0
1
CLE

CLE

22-21

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

59.2%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 58.3% CLE

LAA 0 · 1 CLE

CLE +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsCLE leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingCLEBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
    +10pp→ 76% WP

    Mart · ínez homered to right (353 feet).

  • ↑SwingCLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
    +8pp→ 69% WP

    Kwan · singled to left.

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.37

W. Urena

1-3 · 3.22 ERA

vs

S. Cecconi

2-4 · 6.15 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CLE no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 58.3%May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
LAA0

LAA

Angels

20-26

vs58.3%CLE

CLE★

Guardians

22-26

CLE1
LAA 41.7%win prob58.3% CLE
CLE 1494 · LAA 1460Box score→

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.2pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

LAA

no live price

CLE

★ best
-136DraftKings

edge +3.2pp · implied 55.1%

BookLAACLEBest edge
DraftKings+113-136★+3.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

83.0%

+24.7ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

42

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Tue, May 12·Top 5th/SeriesCLE leads series 1-0/VegasCLE -136
Updated 0s ago

LAA · top performer

LAA
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 5th
LAA16-26
0
1
CLE22-21
LAA16-26·CLE22-21
LAA

LAA

16-26

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-33000002
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-33020001
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-22020000
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-22010001
SPRINT2622
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-22000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-22010000
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-11000010
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-22000001
O. MartinezO. Martinez★C
0-22000001
Team6-1919060017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. UrenaW. Urena★SP
4.0311041
Team4.0311041
CLE

CLE

22-21

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-22010000
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-22000000
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-22000001
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22000001
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
0-22000001
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-11000001
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-11111100
SPRINT27.765
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-11000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-11010000
SPRINT27.354
Team3-1414131104
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
4.0500170
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
0.1100000
Team4.1600170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • W. Urena
    74 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      49%·91.3 mph·28% whiff
    • SI
      23%·98.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.9 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    89 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      38%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.4 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      2%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      43%·80.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      43%·89.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 11LAALAA2@CLECLE7
May 12LAALAA@CLECLEtoday
May 13LAALAA@CLECLEupcoming

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 11LAALAA2@CLECLE7
May 12LAALAA@CLECLEtoday
May 13LAALAA@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 25CLECLE@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 26CLECLE@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 26CLECLE@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+11347%
CLECLE-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
LAALAASP
W. Urena

W. Urena

#57 · 1-3

ERA

3.22

K

22

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vsCHWCHW6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(1-3)
5/2vsNYMNYM5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K-
4/25@KCKC3.2 IP · 4 ER · 3 KL(0-3)
VS
CLECLESP
S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

#44 · 2-4

ERA

6.15

K

31

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/7@KCKC5.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(2-4)
5/2@ATHATH5.1 IP · 5 ER · 3 KW(1-4)
4/26@TORTOR5.2 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(0-4)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
LAALAA3L · 5R · 1S
  1. 1

    Z. Neto

    SS · #9

    R
  2. 2

    M. Trout

    CF · #27

    R
  3. 3

    N. Schanuel

    1B · #18

    L
  4. 4

    J. Soler

    DH · #12

    R
  5. 5

    V. Grissom

    2B · #5

    R
  6. 6

    Y. Moncada

    3B · #10

    B
  7. 7

    J. Adell

    RF · #7

    R
  8. 8

    J. Lowe

    LF · #3

    L
  9. 9

    O. Martinez

    C · #66

    L
CLECLE5L · 4S
  1. 1

    S. Kwan

    LF · #38

    L
  2. 2

    C. DeLauter

    DH · #24

    L
  3. 3

    J. Ramirez

    3B · #11

    B
  4. 4

    K. Manzardo

    1B · #9

    L
  5. 5

    T. Bazzana

    2B · #37

    L
  6. 6

    D. Schneemann

    CF · #10

    L
  7. 7

    A. Martinez

    RF · #1

    B
  8. 8

    P. Bailey

    C · #16

    B
  9. 9

    B. Rocchio

    SS · #4

    B

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th
Game flowLAA ↔ CLE

Recent swing: 10pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 3 : Ball 1

LAALAA
N. Schanuel

N. Schanuel

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

W. Urena

W. Urena

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 2 ER

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 12 K · 0 ER

How it's going

CLE lead LAA 1-0 (Top 5th).

Win probability

CLE vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 69% WP

Kwan · singled to left.

CLEBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 76% WP

Mart · ínez homered to right (353 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
LAA000000
CLE0010—1

Period scoring

LAA won 0 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Mart 1

0
0

Inn 4

0

Inn 5

LAA
CLE

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period
event
player
  1. T5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  2. T5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  3. T5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  4. T5

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Mike Trout

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  5. T5

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  6. T5

    Neto flied out to right.

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

    +2pp

  7. T5

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  8. T5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  9. T5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  10. T5

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  11. T5

    Gaddis relieved Cecconi

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  12. T5

    Top of the 5th inning

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  13. End 4t

    End of the 4th inning

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  14. B4

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  15. B4

    Bazzana struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  16. B4

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  17. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  18. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  19. B4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  20. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  21. B4

    Walbert Urena pitches to Travis Bazzana

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  22. B4

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  23. B4

    Manzardo grounded out to second.

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

    −2pp

  24. B4

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  25. B4

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  26. B4

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  27. B4

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  28. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  29. B4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

  30. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 1

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

0

Runs

1

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

8

TB

6

0

HR

1

1

BB

0

7

K

4

11

LOB

3

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA +113/CLE -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CLE vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.3± 3.3low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.8± 3.1low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.5low

Hits

  • Chase DeLauterCLE
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Nolan SchanuelLAA
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Chase DeLauterCLE
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.9± 3.1high
  • Nolan SchanuelLAA
    1.6± 1.2high

RBIs

  • Chase DeLauterCLE
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.5± 3.1low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    2.6± 3.1low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.6± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

1.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 16 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688