ATL
1-0
DAL
1-0
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
ATL · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
10
Pts
10
Reb
1
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
8
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Box score
ATL
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 20 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 20 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| 19 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 20 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 48 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| DNP: A. Nye | ||||||||
DAL
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 18 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -11 | |
| 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5 | |
| Team | 43 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | ||
| DNP: L. Yueru, J. Quinerly | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
39
7
Ast
10
Season series
ATL@DALtodayDAL@ATLupcomingATL@DALupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
180.5
High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-12556%DAL+10549%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.0 since open
Total
180.5
+3.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
6:31 - 3rdRecent swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:20
ATL on a 6-0 runsince 3rd Quarter 8:34
Allisha Gray 4 of thoseAllisha Gray · makes free throw 1 of 2
ATLA. Reese
FLeading · 6:31 - 3rd · 20 min
10 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 20 PTS · 20 REB · 2 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GLeading · 6:31 - 3rd · 18 min
8 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 18 PTS · 2 REB · 7 AST
How it's going
ATL lead DAL 48-43 (6:31 - 3rd). A. Reese led with 10 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. ATL have outscored the other side 10-2 in the 3rd quarter.
Win probability
DAL vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 20 REB · 7 AST
GS 33
Bench(5)
5 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
GS 2
DALstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
30 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 19
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAwak Kuier · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Odyssey Sims assists)
Rhyne Howard · makes 24-foot three pointer
Allisha Gray · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 19 | 19 | 10 | 48 |
| DAL | 21 | 20 | 2 | 43 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · DAL won 2
Q1
Canada 9
James 6
Q2
Gray 9
Sims 5
Q3
Gray 6
Shepard 2
Shooting comparison
38%
17-45
FG
39%
17-44
23%
5-22
3PT
18%
3-17
100%
9-9
FT
100%
6-6
Play-by-play · 225 plays
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 48·DAL 43
−1pp
Paige Bueckers shooting foul
ATL 47·DAL 43
−5pp
Alanna Smith lost ball turnover (Jordin Canada steals)
·
ATL 47·DAL 43
−4pp
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
ATL 47·DAL 43
+0.9pp
Jordin Canada misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 47·DAL 43
+3pp
Jessica Shepard bad pass turnover (Angel Reese steals)
·
ATL 47·DAL 43
−4pp
Angel Reese makes layup
ATL 47·DAL 43
−4pp
Angel Reese offensive rebound
ATL 45·DAL 43
−3pp
Allisha Gray misses layup
ATL 45·DAL 43
+1pp
(07:53) [Dream] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
ATL 45·DAL 43
+2pp
Odyssey Sims offensive foul turnover
ATL 45·DAL 43
Odyssey Sims offensive foul
ATL 45·DAL 43
−4pp
Rhyne Howard personal foul
ATL 45·DAL 43
Jordin Canada personal foul
ATL 45·DAL 43
−1pp
Allisha Gray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 45·DAL 43
−7pp
Angel Reese defensive rebound
ATL 42·DAL 43
−1pp
Jessica Shepard misses 8-foot jumper
ATL 42·DAL 43
−3pp
Allisha Gray makes driving layup (Angel Reese assists)
·
ATL 42·DAL 43
−4pp
Jessica Shepard makes 1-foot layup (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
ATL 40·DAL 43
+4pp
Angel Reese makes two point shot
ATL 40·DAL 41
−4pp
Angel Reese offensive rebound
ATL 38·DAL 41
−3pp
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 38·DAL 41
+3pp
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
ATL 38·DAL 41
−0.9pp
Alanna Smith misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 38·DAL 41
−1pp
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Maddy Siegrist
·
ATL 38·DAL 41
Alanna Smith enters the game for Aziaha James
·
ATL 38·DAL 41
End of the 2nd Quarter
ATL 38·DAL 41
−2pp
Maddy Siegrist defensive rebound
ATL 38·DAL 41
+0.9pp
Rhyne Howard misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 38·DAL 41
+2pp
Jordin Canada enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
ATL 38·DAL 41
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
17-45
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
17-44
38
FG %
39
5-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-17
9-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-6
7
Assists
10
5
Turnovers
6
Betting line
ATL -1.5·O/U 180.5·ATL -125/DAL +105
