Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at DAL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ATL

ATL

2-0

7772

DAL

1-1

WNBATue, May 12FinalSeriesATL wins series 3-0VegasATL -1.5

ATL · top performer

Jordin Canada

G · #3

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

12.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 11.7

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	36	1	0-5	0-3	1-2	+12	3	1
A. ReeseF · #5	34	12	4-8	0-1	4-4	+1	16	2
A. GrayG · #15	34	26	9-20	4-9	4-4	+9	4	0
J. CanadaG · #3	31	19	8-15	3-7	—	+3	7	5
R. HowardG · #10	37	14	3-14	1-9	7-7	+4	3	4
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	1	0	—	—	—	-3	2	0
M. OkotC · #11	9	0	0-1	—	—	0	5	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	13	2	1-4	0-3	—	-4	3	1
I. NivarG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	4	3	1-2	1-1	—	+3	0	0
Team		77	26-69	9-33	16-17		44	13
DNP: A. Nye

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	31	12	6-11	—	—	-15	8	3
A. SmithF · #8	27	2	1-8	0-6	—	-9	6	3
O. SimsG · #1	23	7	3-8	1-3	—	-15	1	4
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	36	20	7-15	0-4	6-7	-1	4	1
P. BueckersG · #5	32	15	5-12	2-4	3-3	-7	2	3
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	14	2	1-2	0-1	—	+5	4	0
M. SiegristF · #20	8	2	1-3	0-1	—	+5	3	0
A. KuierF · #34	15	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	+9	4	1
A. JamesG · #10	15	6	2-10	0-5	2-2	+3	2	0
Team		72	28-73	4-26	12-14		34	15
DNP: L. Yueru, J. Quinerly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

26-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-73

FG %

9-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-26

16-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 3-0

May 13

ATL77@

DAL72today

May 22

DAL69@

ATL86

Jul 30

ATL82@

DAL81

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

180.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-12556%

DAL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.0 since open

Total

180.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat DAL 77-72. J. Canada led with 19 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 33 REB · 12 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

5 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST

GS 1

DALstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 9:13 · 61-59

+11pp→ 60% WP

Allisha Gray · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 8:39 · 64-59

+9pp→ 77% WP

Allisha Gray · makes 32-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 7:23 · 66-63

+10pp→ 28% WP

Arike Ogunbowale · makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Odyssey Sims assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	19	19	20	19	77
DAL	21	20	18	13	72

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · DAL won 2

Canada 9

James 6

Gray 9

Sims 5

Gray 7

Ogunbowale 11

Gray 10

Shepard 6

ATL

DAL

Shooting comparison

ATL

DAL

38%

26-69

38%

28-73

27%

9-33

3PT

15%

4-26

94%

16-17

86%

12-14

Play-by-play · 391 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 77·DAL 72
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 77·DAL 72
Q4·5.0
Paige Bueckers makes 24-foot three pointer
ATL 77·DAL 72
Q4·12.7
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
ATL 77·DAL 69
Q4·14.1
Rhyne Howard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 77·DAL 69
Q4·34.8
Jessica Shepard makes running layup
ATL 77·DAL 69
Q4·41.1
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·43.6
Allisha Gray misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:05
Angel Reese defensive rebound
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:06
Jessica Shepard misses driving layup
ATL 77·DAL 67
−2pp
Q4·1:10
Naz Hillmon personal foul
ATL 77·DAL 67
+1pp
Q4·1:16
Alysha Clark defensive rebound
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:18
Naz Hillmon misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:32
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:35
Paige Bueckers misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:47
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 77·DAL 67
Q4·1:47
Angel Reese makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 76·DAL 67
Q4·1:47
Jessica Shepard shooting foul
ATL 75·DAL 67
−0.8pp
Q4·1:54
Angel Reese offensive rebound
ATL 75·DAL 67
−0.9pp
Q4·1:56
Rhyne Howard misses driving layup
ATL 75·DAL 67
+0.5pp
Q4·2:22
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
ATL 75·DAL 67
Q4·2:24
Arike Ogunbowale misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 75·DAL 67
−1pp
Q4·2:31
Jordin Canada vs. Paige Bueckers (Alysha Clark gains possession)
· ·
ATL 75·DAL 67
Q4·2:37
Wings offensive team rebound
ATL 75·DAL 67
+1pp
Q4·2:39
Alanna Smith misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 75·DAL 67
−2pp
Q4·2:57
Allisha Gray makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 75·DAL 67
−3pp
Q4·3:14
Alysha Clark enters the game for Aziaha James
·
ATL 73·DAL 67
Q4·3:14
Dream Full timeout
ATL 73·DAL 67
Q4·3:21
Jessica Shepard makes 2-foot layup (Alanna Smith assists)
·
ATL 73·DAL 67
+2pp
Q4·3:36
Jordin Canada makes 25-foot three point jumper (Angel Reese assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 73·DAL 65
−7pp

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 180.5·ATL -125/DAL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 77–72.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 180.5 by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

DAL

eFG%

shooting

44.2%

41.1%

TOV%

ball control

10.5%

9.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

28.9%

17.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

23.2%

16.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

13.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
26.3%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
24.9%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
28.3%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.74

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-122

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at DAL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +33.4pp · implied 53.2%

DAL

no live price

Book	ATL	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-125★	+105	+33.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.3high
Allisha GrayATL
19.7± 4.1high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
15.9± 8.1high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.1± 4.1high
Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.1high
Paige BueckersDAL
4.2± 2.2high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.4± 3.1high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.6± 1.1high
Shatori Walker-KimbroughATL
0.6± 1.1low

Steals

Angel ReeseATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop