Starter edge
1.83 ERA
Bradgley Rodriguez vs Brandon Sproat - 5.87 ERA
Rodriguez owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving SD cleaner opening script tonight.
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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
SD
SD
24-16
PregameTue, 7:40 PM EDT
MIL
MIL
22-16
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 7.70
B. Rodriguez
0-2 · 1.83 ERA
vs
B. Sproat
0-2 · 5.87 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open +1.5 · -3.0
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
MIL no-vig %
54.2%
open 53.2% · +1.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Bradgley Rodriguez
RP · #72
0-2
W-L
1.83
ERA
1.02
WHIP
14
K
19.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTL-1.0 IP0 ER0 K
vsSTLL(0-2)1.0 IP1 ER2 K
@SF-1.0 IP0 ER0 K
Home starter
Brandon Sproat
SP · #23
0-2
W-L
5.87
ERA
1.53
WHIP
30
K
30.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@STL-4.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsARIL(0-2)4.1 IP4 ER5 K
@DET-5.1 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+124 / -149
Model edge
Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Place a bet
Take MIL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
SD
- 1.J. MerrillCF
- 2.F. Tatis Jr.2B
- 3.M. Machado3B
- 4.M. AndujarDH
- 5.X. BogaertsSS
- 6.G. Sheets1B
- 7.N. CastellanosRF
- 8.R. LaureanoLF
- 9.F. FerminC
MIL
- 1.B. Turang2B
- 2.J. ChourioLF
- 3.C. YelichDH
- 4.W. ContrerasC
- 5.J. Bauers1B
- 6.G. MitchellCF
- 7.S. FrelickRF
- 8.D. Hamilton3B
- 9.J. OrtizSS
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs SD.
MIL enters on a 5-game win streak; SD is 5-5 over its last 10.
57.8%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL8–2+2.8
- SD5–5-0.5
Situational
- MIL2d rest
- SD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIL has 0 straight road games; SD has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Brice TurangMIL2.2total bases · ±2.0
Brice Turang · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.9.
- Ty FranceSD2.1total bases · ±2.7
Ty France · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.7.
- Jake BauersMIL1.7total bases · ±1.4
Jake Bauers · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.7 vs season 1.6.
Line move
open -126→-131toward MIL
The market has moved 1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.7%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
57.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.9%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.42 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
MIL vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 60 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8.8± 2.8low
- Kyle HarrisonMIL5.9± 4.8low
- Michael KingSD5.6± 1.6low
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.6± 2.0low
- Brice TurangMIL1.3± 0.8high
- William ContrerasMIL1.3± 1.5high
Total bases
- Brice TurangMIL2.2± 2.0high
- Jackson ChourioMIL2.2± 3.2low
- Ty FranceSD2.1± 2.7high
RBIs
- William ContrerasMIL0.9± 1.5high
- Ty FranceSD0.8± 1.3high
- Andrew VaughnMIL0.7± 1.6low
Earned runs
- Matt WaldronSD4.0± 3.3low
- Brandon SproatMIL2.9± 3.3low
- Walker BuehlerSD2.6± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelLean
Tue, May 12SD
Padres
25-16
vs57.8%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
25-16
SD 42.2%win prob57.8% MIL
MIL 1561 · SD 1530Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
