Starter edge
3.12 ERA
Freddy Peralta vs Jack Flaherty - 5.56 ERA
Peralta owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving NYM cleaner opening script tonight.
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Detroit Tigers at New York Mets
DET
DET
19-22
PregameTue, 7:10 PM EDT
NYM
NYM
15-25
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
4 signals · model + marketCiti Field · Queens, New York
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.68
J. Flaherty
0-3 · 5.56 ERA
vs
F. Peralta
2-3 · 3.12 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
NYM spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 7.5 · +0.5
NYM no-vig %
57.2%
open 57.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jack Flaherty
SP · #9
0-3
W-L
5.56
ERA
1.65
WHIP
42
K
34.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSL(0-3)5.0 IP2 ER10 K
vsTEX-3.2 IP4 ER4 K
@CINL(0-2)2.0 IP6 ER4 K
Home starter
Freddy Peralta
SP · #51
2-3
W-L
3.12
ERA
1.20
WHIP
43
K
43.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@COLW(2-3)5.0 IP0 ER1 K
vsWSH-6.0 IP1 ER6 K
vsCOLL(1-3)5.2 IP2 ER8 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+123 / -149
Model edge
Win prob54% / 46%
LeanAway · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
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Pick a side.
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Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
DET
- 1.K. McGonigleSS
- 2.M. VierlingCF
- 3.C. KeithDH
- 4.R. GreeneLF
- 5.D. DinglerC
- 6.W. PerezRF
- 7.G. Workman3B
- 8.S. Torkelson1B
- 9.Z. McKinstry2B
NYM
- 1.C. BengeRF
- 2.B. BichetteSS
- 3.J. SotoLF
- 4.M. Vientos1B
- 5.M. MelendezDH
- 6.B. Baty3B
- 7.M. Semien2B
- 8.A.J. EwingCF
- 9.F. AlvarezC
Scouting report · pre-game
NYM vs DET.
NYM is 6-4 recently; DET is 4-6.
46.4%
model · NYM win prob
Recent form
- NYM6–4+0.4
- DET4–6-0.2
Situational
- NYM2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYM has 10 straight road games; DET has 3.
Model angle
+10.8ppon DET
DET's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Travel burden-0.8pp
- ▲Venue split+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Riley GreeneDET1.8total bases · ±1.3
Riley Greene · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.7.
- Mark VientosNYM1.8total bases · ±2.8
Mark Vientos · 1.8 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.4.
- Matt VierlingDET1.5total bases · ±1.8
Matt Vierling · 1.5 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 1.3.
Line move
open -149→-149flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.3%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
46.4%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.3%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.42 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
NYM vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 51 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.1± 2.4low
- Freddy PeraltaNYM5.4± 3.1low
- Jack FlahertyDET5.3± 3.4low
Hits
- Riley GreeneDET1.3± 1.0high
- Colt KeithDET0.9± 0.8high
- Kevin McGonigleDET0.9± 0.8high
Total bases
- Riley GreeneDET1.8± 1.3high
- Mark VientosNYM1.8± 2.8high
- Matt VierlingDET1.5± 1.8high
RBIs
- Dillon DinglerDET0.7± 1.1high
- Matt VierlingDET0.7± 0.9high
- Mark VientosNYM0.7± 1.4high
Earned runs
- David PetersonNYM2.7± 3.6low
- Jack FlahertyDET2.6± 2.9low
- Keider MonteroDET2.0± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelTossup
Tue, May 12DET★
Tigers
20-23
vs53.6%DET
NYM
Mets
15-27
DET 53.6%win prob46.4% NYM
DET 1491 · NYM 1441Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
