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THE ONE Analytics
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WSH logo
WSH
2
LiveTop 4th
CIN logo
CIN
0
Updated 7:37 PM ET
TOP 4TH+2WSH↑
WSH

WSH

19-22

2
0
CIN

CIN

22-19

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

56.1%

WSH wins · current

Pre-game: 63.3% CIN

WSH 2 · 0 CIN

WSH +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 3
away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↺Lead flipWSHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
    +12pp→ 52% WP

    Wood · homered to left center (396 feet).

  • ↑SwingWSHTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
    +6pp→ 48% WP

    Lile · reached on infield single to third, Abrams to third.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 13.07

M. Mikolas

1-3 · 7.44 ERA

vs

B. Singer

2-2 · 5.63 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

CIN no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.3% · +0.9

-1.0-2.0CIN SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL61.2%52.3%CIN NO-VIG %May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
WSH2

WSH

Nationals

20-26

vs63.3%CIN

CIN★

Reds

26-18

CIN0
WSH 36.7%win prob63.3% CIN
CIN 1518 · WSH 1448Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.0pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

CIN

★ best
-149DraftKings

edge +6.0pp · implied 57.3%

BookWSHCINBest edge
DraftKings+124-149★+6.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

8.0%

-55.3ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

20

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market came to the model

MLB·Tue, May 12·Top 4th/VegasCIN -149
Updated 0s ago

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 4th
WSH19-22
2
0
CIN22-19
WSH19-22·CIN22-19
WSH

WSH

19-22

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-22111101
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-22111101
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-22000000
SPRINT2872
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-11010010
SPRINT28.483
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-22000000
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-11010000
SPRINT29.395
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-00000000
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-11000000
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-11000000
Team4-1212242212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
3.0100020
Team3.0100020
CIN

CIN

22-19

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-22000001
SPRINT26.838
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22000000
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-11000000
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-11010000
SPRINT26.530
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-11000000
SPRINT27.457
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-11000001
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-11000000
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-11000000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-11000000
Team1-1111010002
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
3.0422122
Team3.0422122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    47 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      34%·86.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.9 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • B. Singer
    58 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      41%·83.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      40%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·87.0 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      2%·89.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

1

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

May 12WSHWSH@CINCINtoday
May 13WSHWSH@CINCINupcoming
May 14WSHWSH@CINCINupcoming
Aug 7CINCIN@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 8CINCIN@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 9CINCIN@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+12445%
CINCIN-14960%

↘6· 5.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
WSHWSHSP
M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

#36 · 1-3

ERA

7.44

K

22

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vsMINMIN5.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(1-3)
4/30@NYMNYM4.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-
4/24@CHWCHW3.2 IP · 2 ER · 1 K-
VS
CINCINSP
B. Singer

B. Singer

#51 · 2-2

ERA

5.63

K

26

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@CHCCHC6.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K-
5/1@PITPIT3.1 IP · 4 ER · 1 KL(2-2)
4/25vsDETDET5.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
WSHWSH5L · 2R · 2S
  1. 1

    J. Wood

    RF · #29

    L
  2. 2

    L. Garcia Jr.

    1B · #2

    L
  3. 3

    B. House

    3B · #12

    R
  4. 4

    C. Abrams

    SS · #5

    L
  5. 5

    J. Young

    CF · #30

    R
  6. 6

    D. Lile

    LF · #4

    L
  7. 7

    N. Nunez

    2B · #26

    B
  8. 8

    J. Tena

    DH · #8

    L
  9. 9

    K. Ruiz

    C · #20

    B
CINCIN3L · 5R · 1S
  1. 1

    T. Friedl

    CF · #29

    L
  2. 2

    S. Steer

    1B · #7

    R
  3. 3

    E. De La Cruz

    SS · #44

    B
  4. 4

    S. Stewart

    DH · #27

    R
  5. 5

    J. Bleday

    LF · #22

    L
  6. 6

    M. McLain

    2B · #9

    R
  7. 7

    W. Benson

    RF · #30

    L
  8. 8

    T. Stephenson

    C · #37

    R
  9. 9

    K. Hayes

    3B · #3

    R

Live · top performers so far

Top 4th
Game flowWSH ↔ CIN

Recent swing: 12pp · Top 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Strike 1 Looking

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 H

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 0 ER

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 5 ER

How it's going

WSH lead CIN 2-0 (Top 4th).

Win probability

CIN vs WSH

0255075100I2I3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 48% WP

Lile · reached on infield single to third, Abrams to third.

WSHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 52% WP

Wood · homered to left center (396 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team1234R
WSH00202
CIN000—0

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Wood 1

0

Inn 4

WSH
CIN

Play-by-play · 196 plays

period
event
player
  1. T4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  2. T4

    Brady Singer pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  3. T4

    Top of the 4th inning

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  4. End 3r

    End of the 3rd inning

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  5. B3

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  6. B3

    Steer grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

    +1pp

  7. B3

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  8. B3

    Friedl stole second.

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  9. B3

    Friedl stole second.

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  10. B3

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  11. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  12. B3

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  13. B3

    Miles Mikolas pitches to Spencer Steer

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  14. B3

    Friedl struck out, Friedl to first on passed ball by Ruiz.

    · ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

    +2pp

  15. B3

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  16. B3

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  17. B3

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  18. B3

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  19. B3

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  20. B3

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  21. B3

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  22. B3

    Miles Mikolas pitches to TJ Friedl

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  23. B3

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  24. B3

    Hayes lined out to right.

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

    −2pp

  25. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  26. B3

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  27. B3

    Miles Mikolas pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  28. B3

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

  29. B3

    Stephenson lined out to center.

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

    −0.8pp

  30. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·CIN 0

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

2

Runs

0

4

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

10

TB

1

2

HR

0

1

BB

0

2

K

2

4

LOB

4

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 9.5·WSH +124/CIN -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

CIN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.0± 4.0low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.3± 3.7low
  • Jake IrvinWSH
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.2± 1.2high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Blake DunnCIN
    2.3± 3.4low
  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.2± 2.8low
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 1.6high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    0.8± 1.1low
  • Brady HouseWSH
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    3.5± 3.3low
  • Miles MikolasWSH
    3.4± 4.4low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.0± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.5%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.0%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen