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  • MLBMid 2
    CHC 0@ATL 0
    -12.2pphigh
  • MLBTop 5
    LAA 0@CLE 1
    +24.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    COL 0@PIT 1
    +16.5ppmedium
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    TB 1@TOR 0
    -10.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 3
    WSH 2@CIN 0
    -40.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    PHI 2@BOS 0
    -43.5pplow
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    DET 2@NYM 0
    -38.8pplow
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    NYY 6@BAL 0
    -43.4pplow
  • NHL11:56 - 1st
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THE ONE Analytics
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COL logo
COL
0
LiveTop 4th
PIT logo
PIT
1
Updated 7:34 PM ET
TOP 4TH+1PIT↑
COL

COL

16-25

0
1
PIT

PIT

22-19

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

63.1%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 67.9% PIT

COL 0 · 1 PIT

PIT +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4
away leadsPIT leads
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.28

M. Lorenzen

2-4 · 6.92 ERA

vs

P. Skenes

5-2 · 2.36 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

74.0%

open 73.3% · +0.7

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL78.0%69.3%PIT NO-VIG %May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One model★ Lock
● Live
COL0

COL

Rockies

16-29

vs67.9%PIT

PIT★

Pirates

22-20

PIT1
COL 32.1%win prob67.9% PIT
PIT 1500 · COL 1394Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.8pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

COL

★ best
+238DraftKings

edge +3.8pp · implied 28.3%

PIT

no live price

BookCOLPITBest edge
DraftKings+238★-299+3.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.05

CLV pp

Open price

+258

Close price

+273

Open no-vig

26.7%

Close no-vig

25.7%

Market faded the model

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

84.4%

+16.5ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

36

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Tue, May 12·Top 4th/VegasPIT -299
Updated 0s ago

COL · top performer

COL
Edouard Julien

Edouard Julien

2B

0.000OPS

2-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 4th
COL16-25
0
1
PIT22-19
COL16-25·PIT22-19
COL

COL

16-25

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-22000001
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-11000001
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-11000001
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-11000001
SPRINT24.85
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-11000001
SPRINT27.148
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-11000001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-11000000
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-11000000
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-11000000
Team0-1010000006
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
3.0311240
Team3.0311240
PIT

PIT

22-19

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-22110001
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-11000011
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-11000010
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-22000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-11011000
SPRINT28.586
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-11000000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-11010000
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-11000000
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-11000001
Team3-1111131024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
3.1000060
Team3.1000060

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    49 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      24%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·88.3 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    42 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.5 mph·55% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      7%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

0

Hits

3

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Season series

May 12COLCOL@PITPITtoday
May 13COLCOL@PITPITupcoming
May 14COLCOL@PITPITupcoming
Jun 20PITPIT@COLCOLupcoming
Jun 21PITPIT@COLCOLupcoming
Jun 21PITPIT@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+23830%
PITPIT-29975%

↘13· 5.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
COLCOLSP
M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

#24 · 2-4

ERA

6.92

K

26

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/7vsNYMNYM5.0 IP · 7 ER · 2 KL(2-4)
4/30@CINCIN5.1 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(2-3)
4/24@NYMNYM7.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(2-2)
VS
PITPITSP
P. Skenes

P. Skenes

#30 · 5-2

ERA

2.36

K

46

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/7@ARIARI8.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(5-2)
4/30vsSTLSTL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 KL(4-2)
4/24@MILMIL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(4-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
COLCOL5L · 3R · 1S
  1. 1

    E. Julien

    2B · #6

    L
  2. 2

    M. Moniak

    CF · #22

    L
  3. 3

    H. Goodman

    C · #15

    R
  4. 4

    T. Rumfield

    1B · #7

    L
  5. 5

    T. Freeman

    RF · #2

    R
  6. 6

    T. Johnston

    DH · #20

    L
  7. 7

    W. Castro

    3B · #3

    B
  8. 8

    E. Tovar

    SS · #14

    R
  9. 9

    J. McCarthy

    LF · #31

    L
PITPIT4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    O. Cruz

    CF · #15

    L
  2. 2

    B. Lowe

    2B · #5

    L
  3. 3

    B. Reynolds

    LF · #10

    B
  4. 4

    R. O'Hearn

    RF · #29

    L
  5. 5

    N. Gonzales

    3B · #3

    R
  6. 6

    M. Ozuna

    DH · #24

    R
  7. 7

    S. Horwitz

    1B · #2

    L
  8. 8

    K. Griffin

    SS · #6

    R
  9. 9

    H. Davis

    C · #32

    R

Live · top performers so far

Top 4th
Game flowCOL ↔ PIT

Recent swing: 5pp · Bottom 1st Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Strike 2 Foul

COLCOL
E. Julien

E. Julien

2B

Batter of the game

0-for-2 · 0.000 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 2 ER

PITPIT
N. Gonzales

N. Gonzales

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER

On pace: 7 IP · 13 K · 0 ER

How it's going

PIT lead COL 1-0 (Top 4th).

Linescore (innings)

Team1234R
COL00000
PIT100—1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

0

Runs

1

0

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

0

TB

4

0

HR

0

0

BB

2

6

K

4

0

LOB

8

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·COL +238/PIT -299

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

PIT vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4

Period scoring

COL won 0 · PIT won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Gonzales 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0

Inn 4

COL
PIT

Play-by-play · 174 plays

period
event
player
  1. T4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  2. T4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  3. T4

    Paul Skenes pitches to Mickey Moniak

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  4. T4

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  5. T4

    Julien flied out to center.

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

    +1pp

  6. T4

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  7. T4

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  8. T4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  9. T4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  10. T4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  11. T4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  12. T4

    Paul Skenes pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  13. T4

    Top of the 4th inning

    COL 0·PIT 1

  14. End 3r

    End of the 3rd inning

    COL 0·PIT 1

  15. B3

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  16. B3

    O'Hearn struck out swinging.

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

    −1pp

  17. B3

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  18. B3

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  19. B3

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  20. B3

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  21. B3

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  22. B3

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  23. B3

    Michael Lorenzen pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  24. B3

    ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  25. B3

    Pirates challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Bryan Reynolds lines into a force out, right fielder Tyler Freeman to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Brandon Lowe out at 2nd. Bryan Reynolds t

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

    −2pp

  26. B3

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  27. B3

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  28. B3

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  29. B3

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

  30. B3

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 0·PIT 1

Player projections

PIT vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.4± 2.5low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    5.8± 3.1low
  • Chase DollanderCOL
    5.2± 4.0low

Hits

  • TJ RumfieldCOL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Konnor GriffinPIT
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Mickey MoniakCOL
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    2.0± 3.3high

RBIs

  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    0.9± 1.1high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 4.0low
  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    2.9± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.5± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    67.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    72.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    67.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872