Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

36-26-16

VAN

22-47-8

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesVGK wins series 3-0VegasVGK -258

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

0Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Max Sasson

C · #63

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:28
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:05
N. DowdC · #26	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	12:55
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:58
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	13:16
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	17:17
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:07
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	18:46
B. SaadLW · #20	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	13:25
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	2	4	1	2	13:22
C. SmithRW · #22	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	9:30
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	22:22
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	22:27
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	13:53
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	17:35
B. McNabbD · #3	1	0	2	1	1	3	0	21:23
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	20:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	11	1	10	.909	59:43

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	14:38
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	19:59
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	18:28
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	9:48
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	12:16
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:56
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:59
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	16:20
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	20:54
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:52
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	18:02
M. SassonC · #63	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	10:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:18
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	26:53
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	12:03
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-2	0	1	3	0	19:00
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	16:09
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	21:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	29	2	27	.931	58:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK wins series 3-0

Feb 5

VAN2@

VGK5

Mar 31

VAN2@

VGK4

Apr 8

VGK2@

VAN1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-25872%

VAN+21032%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 55 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat VAN 2-1. M. Marner led the way — 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	1	1	2
VAN	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · VAN won 0

VGK

VAN

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:53
Brett Howden faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:53
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:44
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:44
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:43
Jake DeBrusk Backhand saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:41
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:35
Aatu Räty Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:27
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:27
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:24
Brock Boeser shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:10
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:00
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:00
Timeout - Home
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:59
Filip Hronek Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:43
Elias Pettersson shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
· ·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:19
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:19
Rasmus Andersson Interference against Marco Rossi
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·18:04
Filip Hronek hit Keegan Kolesar
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:56
Takeaway by Filip Hronek
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:51
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:51
Off-side
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:46
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:37
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:37
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Zeev Buium
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·17:04
Brandon Saad Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
VGK 2·VAN 1
3rd·15:33
Mitch Marner Backhand saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
VGK 2·VAN 1

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -258/VAN +210

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 2–1.

VAN +1.5 cashed (VGK won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
43.9%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
43.9%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
43.9%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+210

Close price

+210

Open no-vig

30.9%

Close no-vig

30.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsVancouver Canucks

Elsewhere in the NHL