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FINAL+1MTL
FLA

FLA

37-37-4

34
MTL

MTL

46-22-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasMTL -290

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Florida Panthers, 4–3.

FLA +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

FLA
Jesper Boqvist

Jesper Boqvist

C · #70

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Juraj Slafkovsky

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
4
FLA37-37-4MTL46-22-10
FLA

FLA

37-37-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

46-22-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

MTL wins series 3-0

Dec 31MTLMTL3@FLAFLA2
Jan 9FLAFLA2@MTLMTL6
Apr 7FLAFLA3@MTLMTL4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLAFLA+23530%
MTLMTL-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat FLA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
FLA111003
MTL012014

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · MTL won 2

1
0

1

1
1

2

1
2

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

FLA
MTL

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Alexandre Texier Goal Snap Shot

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Eetu Luostarinen Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    FLA 0·MTL 2

  9. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  10. OT·4:57

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Cole Schwindt

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  11. OT·4:57

    Goalie Stopped

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  12. OT·4:52

    Mike Benning Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  13. OT·4:25

    A.J. Greer Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  14. OT·4:03

    Mackie Samoskevich Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  15. OT·4:02

    Mackie Samoskevich Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  16. OT·3:55

    Takeaway by Gustav Forsling

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  17. OT·2:40

    Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  18. OT·2:17

    Sam Bennett hit Alex Newhook

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  19. OT·2:13

    Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  20. OT·1:54

    Sam Bennett faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  21. OT·1:54

    On-Ice Official

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  22. OT·1:50

    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  23. OT·1:26

    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  24. OT·1:19

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  25. OT·0:56

    Juraj Slafkovský Batted saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  26. OT·0:47

    Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  27. OT·0:47

    Puck in Netting

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  28. OT·0:25

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  29. OT·0:22

    Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

  30. OT·0:00

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    FLA 3·MTL 3

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

33

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

37

18

Blocks

11

13

Giveaways

13

7

Takeaways

5

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +235/MTL -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MTL vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    2.8± 1.4high
  • Sam BennettFLA
    2.7± 2.1high
  • Sam ReinhartFLA
    2.7± 1.9high

Goals

  • Cole CaufieldMTL
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Carter VerhaegheFLA
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Cole ReinhardtFLA
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Aleksander BarkovFLA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Matthew TkachukFLA
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Sam ReinhartFLA
    0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR