Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at MTL?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

FLA

37-37-4

MTL

46-22-10

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasMTL -290

FLA · top performer

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	20:48
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:29
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	1	5	4	0	0	15:42
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:29
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:40
L. KuninC · #71	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	11:00
E. LuostarinenC · #27	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	20:23
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	14:44
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	9:59
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	20:04
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	13:58
C. VerhaegheC · #23	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	21:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:29
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	0	2	4	2	16:44
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	26:24
S. JonesD · #3	0	1	0	1	1	5	0	29:27
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	15:53
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	19:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	32	3	29	.906	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	13:19
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	15:06
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	19:09
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:51
P. DanaultC · #24	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:10
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	0	4	0	0	2	20:19
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:37
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:26
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	17:15
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	2	0	5	2	0	0	19:36
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	19:27
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	16:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	1	1	3	5	2	0	25:52
A. EngstromD · #42	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	15:50
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	25:44
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	22:49
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:02
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	11:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	33	3	30	.909	63:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 3-0

Dec 31

MTL3@

FLA2

Jan 9

FLA2@

MTL6

Apr 7

FLA3@

MTL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+23530%

MTL-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 85 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat FLA 4-3. J. Slafkovsky led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
FLA	1	1	1	0	0	3
MTL	0	1	2	0	1	4

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · MTL won 2

FLA

MTL

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
Alexandre Texier Goal Snap Shot
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
Eetu Luostarinen Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot
FLA 0·MTL 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
FLA 0·MTL 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·4:57
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·4:57
Goalie Stopped
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·4:52
Mike Benning Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·4:25
A.J. Greer Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·4:03
Mackie Samoskevich Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·4:02
Mackie Samoskevich Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·3:55
Takeaway by Gustav Forsling
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·2:40
Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·2:17
Sam Bennett hit Alex Newhook
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·2:13
Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·1:54
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·1:54
On-Ice Official
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·1:50
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·1:26
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·1:19
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·0:56
Juraj Slafkovský Batted saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·0:47
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·0:47
Puck in Netting
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·0:25
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·0:22
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 3·MTL 3
OT·0:00
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 3·MTL 3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +235/MTL -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Florida Panthers, 4–3.

FLA +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nick Suzuki · MTL19:420.6877.8%68.4%19:42 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 77.8% CF · 68.4% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL19:420.6783.3%71.8%19:42 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 83.3% CF · 71.8% xGF
Mackie Samoskevich · SEA20:000.6367.5%61.8%20:00 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 67.5% CF · 61.8% xGF
Eetu Luostarinen · FLA20:300.6151.2%54.1%20:30 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 51.2% CF · 54.1% xGF
Cole Reinhardt · FLA9:540.5933.3%50.9%9:54 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 33.3% CF · 50.9% xGF
A.J. Greer · ANA15:480.5656.7%68.0%15:48 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 56.7% CF · 68.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL30–3.909+2.2230–3 · .909 SV% · +2.22 GSAx
Daniil Tarasov · FLA29–3.906+2.1629–3 · .906 SV% · +2.16 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.4%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
65.9%
P(MTL win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.9%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
64.8%
P(MTL win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at MTL?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MTL vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 105 high confidence

Shots on goal

Brady TkachukFLA
3.1± 2.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Florida PanthersMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL