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FINAL+1UTA
EDM

EDM

39-29-10

56
UTA

UTA

41-30-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasUTAH -135

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Edmonton Oilers, 6–5 in overtime.

EDM +1.5 cashed (UTA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Michael Carcone

Michael Carcone

LW · #53

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
5
6
EDM39-29-10UTA41-30-6
EDM

EDM

39-29-10

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

41-30-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

EDM wins series 2-1

Oct 29UTAUTA3@EDMEDM6
Mar 25EDMEDM5@UTAUTA2
Apr 8EDMEDM5@UTAUTA6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM+11447%
UTAUTA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat EDM 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
EDM31105
UTA13116

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · UTA won 2

3
1

1

1
3

2

1
1

3

0
1

OT

EDM
UTA

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:33

    Game End

    EDM 5·UTA 6

  2. OT·0:33

    End of OT

    EDM 5·UTA 6

  3. OT·0:33

    Clayton Keller Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (46), Dylan Guenther (31)

    · ·

    EDM 5·UTA 6

  4. OT·0:25

    Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  5. OT·0:25

    Matt Savoie Tripping against Logan Cooley

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  6. OT·0:21

    Takeaway by Logan Cooley

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  7. OT·0:00

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  8. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  9. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  10. 3rd·19:46

    Giveaway by Lawson Crouse

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  11. 3rd·19:14

    Giveaway by Dylan Guenther

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  12. 3rd·18:54

    Giveaway by John Marino

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  13. 3rd·18:46

    JJ Peterka Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  14. 3rd·18:37

    Jason Dickinson Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  15. 3rd·18:01

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  16. 3rd·18:01

    Puck in Crowd

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  17. 3rd·17:54

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  18. 3rd·17:54

    Icing

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  19. 3rd·16:49

    Giveaway by Nate Schmidt

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  20. 3rd·16:36

    JJ Peterka Backhand saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  21. 3rd·16:27

    Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  22. 3rd·16:27

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  23. 3rd·16:24

    Dylan Guenther Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  24. 3rd·16:19

    Logan Cooley Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  25. 3rd·16:13

    Kasperi Kapanen hit MacKenzie Weegar

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  26. 3rd·15:52

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  27. 3rd·15:41

    Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  28. 3rd·15:41

    Icing

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  29. 3rd·15:32

    Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz

    EDM 5·UTA 5

  30. 3rd·15:20

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 5

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

26

Shots

31

33.3

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

6

35

Faceoffs W

30

13

Blocks

6

14

Giveaways

27

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +114/UTA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Mattias EkholmEDM · D
    SHOT MPH92.979

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR