Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1UTA

EDM

39-29-10

UTA

41-30-6

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasUTAH -135

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Nick Schmaltz

C · #8

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	14:01
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	15:20
T. FredericC · #10	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:44
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	11:36
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:26
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	1	-1	2	2	0	0	16:58
C. LazarC · #20	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	7:51
C. McDavidC · #97	1	1	-1	4	0	0	0	22:05
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	0	-2	3	0	0	0	16:51
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	15:43
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	-3	0	0	3	0	17:12
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	1	-1	0	0	1	2	22:33
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:20
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-2	1	2	2	2	13:06
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	23:44
D. NurseD · #25	0	1	2	2	2	2	0	23:15
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	15:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JarryG · #35	31	6	25	.806	60:33

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	15:11
L. CooleyC · #92	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	18:28
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	1	0	2	5	0	0	21:01
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	18:10
C. KellerRW · #9	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	19:35
A. KerfootC · #15	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:04
J. PeterkaRW · #77	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:37
N. SchmaltzC · #8	2	0	1	4	0	0	0	19:23
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:11
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	7:09
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	17:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	17:50
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	3:19
S. DurziD · #50	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	15:24
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:36
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	17:13
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	25:34
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	18:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	26	5	21	.808	60:06

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM wins series 2-1

Oct 29

UTA3@

EDM6

Mar 25

EDM5@

UTA2

Apr 8

EDM5@

UTA6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM+11447%

UTA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 90 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat EDM 6-5. N. Schmaltz led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
EDM	3	1	1	0	5
UTA	1	3	1	1	6

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · UTA won 2

EDM

UTA

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:33
Game End
EDM 5·UTA 6
OT·0:33
End of OT
EDM 5·UTA 6
OT·0:33
Clayton Keller Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (46), Dylan Guenther (31)
· ·
EDM 5·UTA 6
OT·0:25
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
OT·0:25
Matt Savoie Tripping against Logan Cooley
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
OT·0:21
Takeaway by Logan Cooley
EDM 5·UTA 5
OT·0:00
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·19:46
Giveaway by Lawson Crouse
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Dylan Guenther
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·18:54
Giveaway by John Marino
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·18:46
JJ Peterka Tip-In Wide Left
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·18:37
Jason Dickinson Tip-In Wide Right
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·18:01
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·18:01
Puck in Crowd
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·17:54
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·17:54
Icing
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:49
Giveaway by Nate Schmidt
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:36
JJ Peterka Backhand saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:27
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:27
Goalie Stopped
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:24
Dylan Guenther Snap Shot Wide Left
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:19
Logan Cooley Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·16:13
Kasperi Kapanen hit MacKenzie Weegar
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·15:41
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·15:41
Icing
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·15:32
Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz
EDM 5·UTA 5
3rd·15:20
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
EDM 5·UTA 5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +114/UTA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Edmonton Oilers, 6–5 in overtime.

EDM +1.5 cashed (UTA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.7%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.7%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL