Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+4OTT
TB

TB

48-24-6

26
OTT

OTT

41-27-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -142

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 6–2.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Nick Paul

Nick Paul

LW · #20

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

4Points

0

G

4

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
6
TB48-24-6OTT41-27-10
TB

TB

48-24-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

41-27-10

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Oct 9OTTOTT5@TBTB4
Mar 28OTTOTT2@TBTB4
Apr 7TBTB2@OTTOTT6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+12045%
OTTOTT-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TB 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB0112
OTT0156

Period scoring

TB won 0 · OTT won 1

0
0

1

1
1

2

1
5

3

TB
OTT

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 2·OTT 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 2·OTT 6

  3. 3rd·19:37

    Giveaway by Conor Geekie

    TB 2·OTT 6

  4. 3rd·19:32

    Takeaway by Dylan Duke

    TB 2·OTT 6

  5. 3rd·19:26

    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    TB 2·OTT 6

  6. 3rd·19:20

    Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  7. 3rd·19:18

    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    TB 2·OTT 6

  8. 3rd·18:31

    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde

    TB 2·OTT 6

  9. 3rd·18:10

    Conor Geekie hit Lassi Thomson

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  10. 3rd·18:07

    Jakob Pelletier Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  11. 3rd·17:44

    Ryan McDonagh Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  12. 3rd·17:41

    Conor Geekie faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  13. 3rd·17:41

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 2·OTT 6

  14. 3rd·17:37

    Gage Goncalves Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  15. 3rd·17:34

    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Corey Perry

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  16. 3rd·17:24

    Gage Goncalves Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  17. 3rd·17:22

    Nick Paul faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  18. 3rd·17:22

    Puck in Crowd

    TB 2·OTT 6

  19. 3rd·17:15

    Cameron Crotty hit Conor Geekie

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  20. 3rd·16:41

    Conor Geekie faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 6

  21. 3rd·16:41

    Shane Pinto Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    TB 2·OTT 6

  22. 3rd·16:08

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    TB 2·OTT 5

  23. 3rd·15:58

    Brayden Point shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 5

  24. 3rd·15:40

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Brayden Point

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 5

  25. 3rd·15:40

    TV Timeout

    TB 2·OTT 5

  26. 3rd·15:40

    Too many men/ice served by Fabian Zetterlund

    TB 2·OTT 5

  27. 3rd·14:35

    Dylan Cozens hit Emil Lilleberg

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 5

  28. 3rd·14:23

    Jordan Spence hit Emil Lilleberg

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 5

  29. 3rd·14:09

    Ridly Greig Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 5

  30. 3rd·13:52

    Dylan Cozens Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    TB 2·OTT 5

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

30

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

66.7

8

PIM

6

39

Faceoffs W

25

12

Blocks

12

18

Giveaways

11

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB +120/OTT -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Warren FoegeleOTT · LW
    SKATE MPH22.786
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784
  • Jake SandersonOTT · D
    SHOT MPH94.282
  • Claude GirouxOTT · RW
    SHOT MPH87.082

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR