Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at OTT?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4OTT

48-24-6

OTT

41-27-10

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -142

TB · top performer

Nick Paul

LW · #20

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Jake Sanderson

D · #85

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	15:01
D. DukeLW · #53	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:22
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	11:29
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	15:46
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:52
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	1	2	2	2	17:13
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	20:29
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	19:41
N. PaulLW · #20	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	13:27
J. PelletierLW · #11	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	10:22
C. PerryRW · #10	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:17
B. PointC · #21	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	17:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	18:22
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	19:43
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:55
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	18:05
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	20:23
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	-3	3	1	0	0	20:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	31	5	26	.839	58:46

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:34
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	2	-1	0	1	0	0	17:17
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:44
D. CozensC · #24	0	1	0	4	2	0	0	16:21
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	11:12
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:23
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:31
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	17:02
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	17:20
T. StutzleC · #18	1	2	0	4	0	1	4	18:31
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	4	1	3	3	0	0	16:42
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrottyD · #5	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:50
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:55
J. SandersonD · #85	2	0	2	5	1	2	0	24:08
J. SpenceD · #10	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:59
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:10
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	23:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	30	2	28	.933	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Oct 9

OTT5@

TB4

Mar 28

OTT2@

TB4

Apr 7

TB2@

OTT6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB+12045%

OTT-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 78 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TB 6-2. J. Sanderson led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	1	5	6

Period scoring

TB won 0 · OTT won 1

OTT

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·19:37
Giveaway by Conor Geekie
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·19:32
Takeaway by Dylan Duke
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·19:26
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·19:20
Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·19:18
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·18:31
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·18:10
Conor Geekie hit Lassi Thomson
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·18:07
Jakob Pelletier Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:44
Ryan McDonagh Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:41
Conor Geekie faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:41
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:37
Gage Goncalves Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:34
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Corey Perry
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:24
Gage Goncalves Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:22
Nick Paul faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:22
Puck in Crowd
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·17:15
Cameron Crotty hit Conor Geekie
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·16:41
Conor Geekie faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·16:41
Shane Pinto Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none
TB 2·OTT 6
3rd·16:08
Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Wide Right
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:58
Brayden Point shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
·
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:40
Lars Eller faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:40
TV Timeout
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:40
Too many men/ice served by Fabian Zetterlund
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·14:35
Dylan Cozens hit Emil Lilleberg
·
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·14:23
Jordan Spence hit Emil Lilleberg
·
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·14:09
Ridly Greig Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
TB 2·OTT 5
3rd·13:52
Dylan Cozens Snap Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 2·OTT 5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB +120/OTT -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 6–2.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brady Tkachuk · FLA16:420.8271.9%80.8%16:42 TOI · 0.82 iXG · 71.9% CF · 80.8% xGF
Jake Sanderson · OTT24:180.5653.1%59.8%24:18 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 53.1% CF · 59.8% xGF
Ridly Greig · OTT16:540.4544.8%53.7%16:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 44.8% CF · 53.7% xGF
Nick Paul · TBL13:360.4242.9%40.8%13:36 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 42.9% CF · 40.8% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL20:360.3660.0%41.4%20:36 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 60.0% CF · 41.4% xGF
#848159210:300.3452.9%35.6%10:30 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 52.9% CF · 35.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT28–2.933+0.3328–2 · .933 SV% · +0.33 GSAx
Jonas Johansson · TBL26–5.839-1.7526–5 · .839 SV% · -1.75 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at OTT?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningOttawa Senators

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