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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

51-16-10

31
STL

STL

33-32-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -155

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 3–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Valeri Nichushkin

Valeri Nichushkin

RW · #13

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

STL · top performer

STL
Jimmy Snuggerud

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
COL51-16-10STL33-32-12
COL

COL

51-16-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
STL

STL

33-32-12

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

2

Season series

COL wins series 2-1

Jan 1STLSTL1@COLCOL6
Apr 6STLSTL3@COLCOL2
Apr 8COLCOL3@STLSTL1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-15561%
STLSTL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat STL 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL2103
STL0101

Period scoring

COL won 1 · STL won 0

2
0

1

1
1

2

0
0

3

COL
STL

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 3·STL 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 3·STL 1

  3. 3rd·19:49

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  4. 3rd·19:49

    Icing

    COL 3·STL 1

  5. 3rd·19:33

    Philip Broberg shot blocked by Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  6. 3rd·19:20

    Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Dylan Holloway

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  7. 3rd·18:36

    Logan Mailloux Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  8. 3rd·18:33

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  9. 3rd·18:33

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 3·STL 1

  10. 3rd·18:31

    Dylan Holloway shot blocked by Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  11. 3rd·18:26

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  12. 3rd·18:26

    Icing

    COL 3·STL 1

  13. 3rd·18:17

    Jake Neighbours Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  14. 3rd·18:11

    Philip Broberg Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  15. 3rd·18:01

    Giveaway by Brock Nelson

    COL 3·STL 1

  16. 3rd·17:56

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot Wide Left

    COL 3·STL 1

  17. 3rd·17:18

    Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  18. 3rd·16:36

    Robert Thomas Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  19. 3rd·15:57

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Philip Broberg

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  20. 3rd·15:49

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Philip Broberg

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  21. 3rd·15:40

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Robert Thomas

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  22. 3rd·15:40

    Puck in Netting

    COL 3·STL 1

  23. 3rd·15:38

    Jimmy Snuggerud Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  24. 3rd·15:35

    Giveaway by Brett Kulak

    COL 3·STL 1

  25. 3rd·15:00

    Jordan Kyrou Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  26. 3rd·14:30

    Ross Colton hit Cam Fowler

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  27. 3rd·13:45

    Jake Neighbours hit Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  28. 3rd·12:42

    Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  29. 3rd·12:41

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·STL 1

  30. 3rd·12:41

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·STL 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

37

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

2

30

Faceoffs W

25

16

Blocks

14

11

Giveaways

19

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -155/STL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Martin NecasCOL · C
    BURSTS7599
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR