Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

COL

51-16-10

STL

33-32-12

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -155

COL · top performer

Valeri Nichushkin

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Robert Thomas

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:54
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:21
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6:09
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	9:25
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	15:16
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:11
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	21:08
M. NecasC · #88	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	21:21
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	2	2	0	2	0	19:13
V. NichushkinRW · #13	2	0	2	6	1	2	0	15:45
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:35
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:27
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:14
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	22:40
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	1	5	0	1	2	19:34
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	21:15
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	2	2	0	2	2	23:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	19	1	18	.947	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	16:47
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:53
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	15:43
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:47
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:44
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	24:07
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	14:35
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:20
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:38
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:16
R. ThomasC · #18	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	24:04
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	8:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	-1	3	1	3	0	25:12
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:47
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	15:59
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-2	3	1	0	2	20:04
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	20:51
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	13:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	37	3	34	.919	55:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 2-1

Jan 1

STL1@

COL6

Apr 6

STL3@

COL2

Apr 8

COL3@

STL1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-15561%

STL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 44 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat STL 3-1. V. Nichushkin led the way — 2 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	2	1	0	3
STL	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

COL won 1 · STL won 0

COL

STL

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·19:49
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·19:49
Icing
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·19:33
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·19:20
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Dylan Holloway
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:36
Logan Mailloux Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:33
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:33
Puck in Crowd
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:31
Dylan Holloway shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:26
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:26
Icing
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:17
Jake Neighbours Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:11
Philip Broberg Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·17:56
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·17:18
Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·16:36
Robert Thomas Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:57
Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:49
Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:40
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:40
Puck in Netting
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:38
Jimmy Snuggerud Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by Brett Kulak
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·15:00
Jordan Kyrou Backhand Wide Left
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·14:30
Ross Colton hit Cam Fowler
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·13:45
Jake Neighbours hit Parker Kelly
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·12:42
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Sam Malinski
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·12:41
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·STL 1
3rd·12:41
Goalie Stopped
COL 3·STL 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -155/STL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 3–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.3%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
45.3%
P(STL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
45.3%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
45.3%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL