Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CBJ

CBJ

39-27-12

DET

40-29-9

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-1VegasDET -110

CBJ · top performer

Zach Werenski

D · #8

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Justin Faulk

D · #72

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	22:18
A. FantilliC · #19	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	25:08
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	16:34
D. HeinenLW · #43	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:19
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	1	3	2	2	0	15:58
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:24
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:51
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	0	3	2	1	0	24:49
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	1	2	2	1	2	0	19:43
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:37
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	15:35
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	7:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5:47
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	19:15
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	16:36
D. MateychukD · #5	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	21:08
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	23:49
Z. WerenskiD · #8	1	1	0	6	0	5	0	33:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	37	3	34	.919	63:58

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	19:34
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:33
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	17:54
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	16:32
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:48
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	15:06
D. LarkinC · #71	1	1	1	5	4	0	0	23:20
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	6:55
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-2	0	1	2	4	13:52
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	7:57
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:33
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	22:24
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	26:49
J. FaulkD · #72	2	0	2	6	0	1	0	23:40
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	12:38
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	9:34
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	-1	0	3	8	0	29:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	35	3	32	.914	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 2-1

Nov 22

CBJ3@

DET4

Dec 5

DET5@

CBJ6

Apr 7

CBJ4@

DET3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-11052%

DET-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 86 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat DET 4-3. Z. Werenski led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
CBJ	1	1	1	0	1	4
DET	1	1	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · DET won 0

CBJ

DET

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Zach Werenski Goal Wrist Shot
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
James van Riemsdyk Backhand saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Alex DeBrincat Goal Snap Shot
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Patrick Kane Goal Backhand
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Kent Johnson Goal Wrist Shot
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Lucas Raymond Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
CBJ 3·DET 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·4:49
Mason Marchment Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·4:38
Mason Marchment Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·4:01
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·3:50
Simon Edvinsson Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·3:31
Andrew Copp Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·3:04
Takeaway by Kirill Marchenko
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·2:11
Dylan Larkin Backhand saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·2:06
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·2:06
Puck in Netting
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·2:03
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·1:56
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·1:56
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·1:54
Andrew Copp Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·1:37
Justin Faulk Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 3·DET 3
OT·1:27
Ivan Provorov Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CBJ 3·DET 3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·CBJ -110/DET -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–3.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Larkin · DET24:180.7860.3%67.7%24:18 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 60.3% CF · 67.7% xGF
Boone Jenner · CBJ16:060.7551.3%64.5%16:06 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 51.3% CF · 64.5% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET18:060.6054.2%49.8%18:06 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 54.2% CF · 49.8% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ24:480.5768.9%53.5%24:48 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 68.9% CF · 53.5% xGF
Lucas Raymond · DET21:540.5664.7%66.9%21:54 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 64.7% CF · 66.9% xGF
Andrew Copp · DET17:540.4846.5%42.7%17:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 46.5% CF · 42.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jet Greaves · CBJ34–3.919+1.5234–3 · .919 SV% · +1.52 GSAx
John Gibson · DET32–3.914+1.0332–3 · .914 SV% · +1.03 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
57.3%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.3%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.3%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsDetroit Red Wings

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