Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PHI

PHI

40-26-12

40-35-3

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesPHI wins series 3-0VegasNJ -125

PHI · top performer

Tyson Foerster

RW · #71

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Cody Glass

C · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:00
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	11:31
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	13:25
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:25
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	17:52
T. FoersterRW · #71	2	0	3	4	0	1	0	15:19
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:46
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:14
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	15:44
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	13:46
O. TippettRW · #74	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:57
T. ZegrasC · #46	2	1	2	2	0	1	0	13:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:23
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	17:49
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:34
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	24:45
N. SeelerD · #24	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	16:00
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	2	0	3	1	0	21:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:55
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	19:07
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	20:05
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	11:55
C. GlassC · #12	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:27
B. HalonenLW · #48	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	10:16
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	10:00
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:56
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	-2	5	0	0	2	22:44
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:30
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:16
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17:32
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	18:50
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	24:09
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	20:17
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	16:40
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	17:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	19	4	15	.789	58:04

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 3-0

Nov 23

NJ3@

PHI6

Nov 30

PHI5@

NJ3

Apr 7

PHI5@

NJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+10549%

NJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 60 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat NJ 5-1. T. Foerster led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	2	2	1	5
NJ	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · NJ won 0

PHI

Play-by-play · 263 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·19:34
Brian Halonen hit Nick Seeler
·
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·19:12
Brian Halonen Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·19:11
Cam York hit Paul Cotter
·
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·19:01
Giveaway by Cam York
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·18:44
Marc McLaughlin shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Cody Glass
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·17:50
Giveaway by Alex Bump
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·17:09
Noah Cates faceoff won against Marc McLaughlin
·
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·17:09
Nick Seeler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
PHI 5·NJ 1
3rd·16:52
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·16:52
Off-side
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Jesper Bratt
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·16:37
Luke Hughes Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
· ·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·16:22
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·15:48
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·15:48
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·15:44
Jesper Bratt Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·15:19
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Alex Bump
· ·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·15:01
Jack Hughes faceoff won against Noah Cates
· ·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·15:01
Off-side
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·14:46
Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Cody Glass
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·14:20
Porter Martone hit Nico Hischier
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·13:58
Denver Barkey hit Dawson Mercer
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·13:15
Brian Halonen hit Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·12:45
Noah Cates Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·12:36
Jack Hughes faceoff won against Noah Cates
· ·
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·12:36
Puck in Netting
PHI 4·NJ 1
3rd·11:40
Giveaway by Jesper Bratt
PHI 4·NJ 1

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 5–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jack Hughes · NJD23:060.6575.6%77.7%23:06 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 75.6% CF · 77.7% xGF
Tyson Foerster · PHI15:360.4731.6%38.3%15:36 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 31.6% CF · 38.3% xGF
Jesper Bratt · NJD19:240.4169.0%69.4%19:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 69.0% CF · 69.4% xGF
Connor Brown · NJD20:120.4079.4%81.4%20:12 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 79.4% CF · 81.4% xGF
Timo Meier · NJD18:120.4085.7%83.9%18:12 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 85.7% CF · 83.9% xGF
Noah Cates · PHI13:360.3047.4%56.1%13:36 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 47.4% CF · 56.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dan Vladar · PHI23–1.958+1.3623–1 · .958 SV% · +1.36 GSAx
Jacob Markstrom · FLA15–4.789-1.9515–4 · .789 SV% · -1.95 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(NJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.7%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.7%
P(NJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersNew Jersey Devils

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