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FINAL+4PHI
PHI

PHI

40-26-12

51
NJ

NJ

40-35-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesPHI wins series 3-0VegasNJ -125

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 5–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trevor Zegras

Trevor Zegras

C · #46

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Cody Glass

Cody Glass

C · #12

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
PHI40-26-12NJ40-35-3
PHI

PHI

40-26-12

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

40-35-3

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

PHI wins series 3-0

Nov 23NJNJ3@PHIPHI6
Nov 30PHIPHI5@NJNJ3
Apr 7PHIPHI5@NJNJ1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+10549%
NJNJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat NJ 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI2215
NJ1001

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · NJ won 0

2
1

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

PHI
NJ

Play-by-play · 263 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  3. 3rd·19:34

    Brian Halonen hit Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  4. 3rd·19:12

    Brian Halonen Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  5. 3rd·19:11

    Cam York hit Paul Cotter

    ·

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  6. 3rd·19:01

    Giveaway by Cam York

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  7. 3rd·18:44

    Marc McLaughlin shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  8. 3rd·17:51

    Giveaway by Cody Glass

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  9. 3rd·17:50

    Giveaway by Alex Bump

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  10. 3rd·17:09

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Marc McLaughlin

    ·

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  11. 3rd·17:09

    Nick Seeler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    PHI 5·NJ 1

  12. 3rd·16:52

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  13. 3rd·16:52

    Off-side

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  14. 3rd·16:47

    Giveaway by Jesper Bratt

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  15. 3rd·16:37

    Luke Hughes Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    · ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  16. 3rd·16:22

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  17. 3rd·15:48

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  18. 3rd·15:48

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  19. 3rd·15:44

    Jesper Bratt Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  20. 3rd·15:19

    Jack Hughes shot blocked by Alex Bump

    · ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  21. 3rd·15:01

    Jack Hughes faceoff won against Noah Cates

    · ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  22. 3rd·15:01

    Off-side

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  23. 3rd·14:46

    Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Cody Glass

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  24. 3rd·14:20

    Porter Martone hit Nico Hischier

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  25. 3rd·13:58

    Denver Barkey hit Dawson Mercer

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  26. 3rd·13:15

    Brian Halonen hit Travis Sanheim

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  27. 3rd·12:45

    Noah Cates Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom

    ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  28. 3rd·12:36

    Jack Hughes faceoff won against Noah Cates

    · ·

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  29. 3rd·12:36

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 4·NJ 1

  30. 3rd·11:40

    Giveaway by Jesper Bratt

    PHI 4·NJ 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

20

Shots

24

50.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

20

15

Blocks

3

20

Giveaways

18

1

Takeaways

7

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Tyson FoersterPHI · RW
    SHOT MPH92.796
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR