Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at DAL?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

CGY

32-36-9

DAL

46-20-12

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasDAL -258

CGY · top performer

Joel Farabee

LW · #86

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	21:38
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	22:40
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	-1	3	0	0	2	17:17
J. FarabeeLW · #86	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	15:57
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	15:59
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	18:11
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	9:12
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	7:58
Y. SharangovichC · #17	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:49
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	13:10
A. SunievLW · #36	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:16
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1:15
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	18:01
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	-1	1	1	5	0	24:04
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	30:00
Z. ParekhD · #19	1	0	0	3	1	2	0	18:50
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	29:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	25	4	21	.840	63:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:53
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13:47
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:25
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:16
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	18:37
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:56
J. HryckowianC · #49	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:16
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:30
W. JohnstonC · #53	2	0	0	5	2	1	0	22:12
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	21:08
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	0	6	1	1	0	24:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:42
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:11
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	27:09
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:36
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	14:00
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	-2	0	0	2	2	9:29
T. MyersD · #57	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	14:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	20	3	17	.850	63:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

Nov 23

DAL2@

CGY3

Mar 4

DAL6@

CGY1

Apr 8

CGY3@

DAL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+21032%

DAL-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 87 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CGY 4-3. W. Johnston led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CGY	0	2	1	0	3
DAL	0	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · DAL won 2

CGY

DAL

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:39
Game End
CGY 3·DAL 4
OT·3:39
End of OT
CGY 3·DAL 4
OT·3:39
Wyatt Johnston Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (50), Miro Heiskanen (54)
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 4
OT·3:32
Takeaway by Miro Heiskanen
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·3:28
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·3:28
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·3:25
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:45
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:45
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:44
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:36
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:23
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:23
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:20
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:04
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:04
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:02
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:27
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:27
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:25
Matt Duchene Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:24
Wyatt Johnston Poke saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:23
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:59
Matt Duchene Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:48
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:48
Ice Problem
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:48
Ryan Strome High-sticking - double minor against Jason Robertson
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:41
Jason Robertson hit Ryan Strome
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:38
Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CGY 3·DAL 3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +210/DAL -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Calgary Flames, 4–3 in overtime.

CGY +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
67.2%
P(DAL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.2%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.2%
P(DAL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+210

Close price

+210

Open no-vig

30.9%

Close no-vig

30.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at DAL?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL