NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

CGY

32-36-9

DAL

46-20-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Apr 7FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasDAL -258

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Calgary Flames, 4–3 in overtime.

CGY +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Adam Klapka

RW · #43

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

CGY32-36-9

DAL46-20-12

CGY32-36-9DAL46-20-12

CGY

32-36-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

DAL

46-20-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

Nov 23

DAL2@

CGY3

Mar 4

DAL6@

CGY1

Apr 8

CGY3@

DAL4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+21032%

DAL-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CGY 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CGY	0	2	1	0	3
DAL	0	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · DAL won 2

CGY

DAL

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:39
Game End
CGY 3·DAL 4
OT·3:39
End of OT
CGY 3·DAL 4
OT·3:39
Wyatt Johnston Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (50), Miro Heiskanen (54)
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 4
OT·3:32
Takeaway by Miro Heiskanen
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·3:28
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·3:28
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·3:25
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:45
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:45
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:44
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:36
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:23
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:23
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:20
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:04
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:04
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·2:02
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:27
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:27
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:25
Matt Duchene Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:24
Wyatt Johnston Poke saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·1:23
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:59
Matt Duchene Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:48
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
· ·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:48
Ice Problem
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:48
Ryan Strome High-sticking - double minor against Jason Robertson
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:41
Jason Robertson hit Ryan Strome
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:38
Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CGY 3·DAL 3

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +210/DAL -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE

Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
SHOT MPH92.691
Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
DIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
DIST MI214.185

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+210

Close price

+210

Open no-vig

30.9%

Close no-vig

30.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

DAL vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Mikko RantanenDAL
1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands