Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at COL?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7COL

CGY

31-35-8

COL

49-14-10

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasCOL -395

CGY · top performer

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

0Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:56
J. BeecherC · #18	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	12:47
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	0	6	2	1	2	16:24
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	15:00
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:17
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	14:07
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:55
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-3	2	3	2	0	11:50
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:45
B. OthmannLW · #78	1	0	-3	1	2	0	0	11:55
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:12
R. StromeC · #22	1	0	-1	2	0	2	0	16:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	23:10
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:56
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	22:12
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	-2	1	1	2	2	13:19
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	15:37
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-2	1	1	1	2	24:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	16	4	12	.750	9:19
D. CooleyG · #1	33	5	28	.848	50:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:43
J. DruryC · #18	1	2	3	3	1	0	0	13:11
N. KadriC · #91	2	0	-1	5	0	1	0	19:08
P. KellyC · #17	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	12:07
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	2	2	2	1	0	10:55
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	13:05
A. LehkonenLW · #62	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:08
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	2	1	5	3	0	0	19:20
M. NecasC · #88	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	17:57
B. NelsonC · #11	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	16:46
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	15:42
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	16:43
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	20:56
C. MakarD · #8	0	3	1	2	0	0	0	17:15
S. MalinskiD · #70	1	1	2	4	1	4	0	21:55
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	18:56
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	3	2	0	1	0	19:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Mar 31

CGY2@

COL9today

Apr 10

CGY1@

COL3

Apr 15

COL3@

CGY1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+31024%

COL-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 48 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CGY 9-2. N. Kadri led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	1	1	2
COL	5	1	3	9

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · COL won 2

CGY

COL

Play-by-play · 332 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·19:44
John Beecher Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·19:35
Brennan Othmann shot blocked by Sam Malinski
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·19:30
Giveaway by Sam Malinski
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·18:18
Jack Drury hit Zayne Parekh
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:36
Takeaway by Blake Coleman
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Mikael Backlund
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:11
Blake Coleman hit Sam Malinski
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:07
Devon Toews Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:05
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:05
Goalie Stopped
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·17:03
Devon Toews Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·16:48
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·16:48
Artturi Lehkonen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (71), Martin Necas (57)
· ·
CGY 2·COL 9
3rd·16:46
Martin Necas Backhand saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·16:44
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Adam Klapka
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·16:34
Giveaway by Artturi Lehkonen
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·16:29
Morgan Frost Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·16:26
Nathan MacKinnon hit Adam Klapka
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·16:10
Brennan Othmann Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Blake Coleman
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·15:32
Mikael Backlund Backhand Wide Right
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·15:31
Blake Coleman Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·15:17
Ross Colton Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·14:52
Brent Burns shot blocked by Brayden Pachal
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·14:44
Yegor Sharangovich hit Joel Kiviranta
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·14:44
Devon Toews Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 2·COL 8
3rd·14:24
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
CGY 2·COL 8

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +310/COL -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Calgary Flames, 9–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.8%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
70.8%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
70.8%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
70.8%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+310

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at COL?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL