Live · 8
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FINAL+7COL
CGY

CGY

31-35-8

29
COL

COL

49-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasCOL -395

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Calgary Flames, 9–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

CGY
John Beecher

John Beecher

C · #18

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Jack Drury

Jack Drury

C · #18

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
9
CGY31-35-8COL49-14-10
CGY

CGY

31-35-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

49-14-10

9
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

2

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Mar 31CGYCGY2@COLCOL9today
Apr 10CGYCGY1@COLCOL3
Apr 15COLCOL3@CGYCGY1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGYCGY+31024%
COLCOL-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CGY 9-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CGY0112
COL5139

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · COL won 2

0
5

1

1
1

2

1
3

3

CGY
COL

Play-by-play · 332 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CGY 2·COL 9

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CGY 2·COL 9

  3. 3rd·19:44

    John Beecher Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  4. 3rd·19:35

    Brennan Othmann shot blocked by Sam Malinski

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  5. 3rd·19:30

    Giveaway by Sam Malinski

    CGY 2·COL 9

  6. 3rd·18:18

    Jack Drury hit Zayne Parekh

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  7. 3rd·17:36

    Takeaway by Blake Coleman

    CGY 2·COL 9

  8. 3rd·17:33

    Giveaway by Mikael Backlund

    CGY 2·COL 9

  9. 3rd·17:11

    Blake Coleman hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  10. 3rd·17:07

    Devon Toews Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  11. 3rd·17:05

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  12. 3rd·17:05

    Goalie Stopped

    CGY 2·COL 9

  13. 3rd·17:03

    Devon Toews Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  14. 3rd·16:48

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Strome

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  15. 3rd·16:48

    Artturi Lehkonen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (71), Martin Necas (57)

    · ·

    CGY 2·COL 9

  16. 3rd·16:46

    Martin Necas Backhand saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  17. 3rd·16:44

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  18. 3rd·16:38

    Giveaway by Adam Klapka

    CGY 2·COL 8

  19. 3rd·16:34

    Giveaway by Artturi Lehkonen

    CGY 2·COL 8

  20. 3rd·16:29

    Morgan Frost Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  21. 3rd·16:26

    Nathan MacKinnon hit Adam Klapka

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  22. 3rd·16:10

    Brennan Othmann Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  23. 3rd·15:52

    Giveaway by Blake Coleman

    CGY 2·COL 8

  24. 3rd·15:32

    Mikael Backlund Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  25. 3rd·15:31

    Blake Coleman Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  26. 3rd·15:17

    Ross Colton Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  27. 3rd·14:52

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Brayden Pachal

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  28. 3rd·14:44

    Yegor Sharangovich hit Joel Kiviranta

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  29. 3rd·14:44

    Devon Toews Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

  30. 3rd·14:24

    Ryan Strome faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    CGY 2·COL 8

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

COL

Home

29

Shots

49

0.0

PCT

75.0

8

PIM

2

34

Faceoffs W

24

15

Blocks

12

15

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +310/COL -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+310

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR