Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

STL

31-31-11

34-31-7

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSTL -110

STL · top performer

Pavel Buchnevich

LW · #89

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:40
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:49
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	11:56
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:43
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	20:05
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:22
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	15:58
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:19
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:00
P. SuterC · #22	0	1	0	1	0	1	2	12:44
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	0	1	2	2	2	20:52
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	1	0	-2	1	0	0	2	23:49
C. FowlerD · #17	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	20:28
J. HollD · #4	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:35
T. LindsteinD · #41	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:12
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-2	0	0	4	0	19:50
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	21:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	29	5	24	.828	59:27

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	2	1	1	5	1	0	0	19:45
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:06
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	16:30
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	10:00
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:44
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	11:46
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	12:00
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	11:58
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-2	5	3	0	0	16:34
W. SmithC · #2	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	19:51
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	12:56
A. WennbergC · #21	2	1	-2	2	0	1	0	19:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	17:10
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:00
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	20:20
N. LeddyD · #4	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	22:32
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	-1	0	0	4	4	16:01
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	20:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	26	4	22	.846	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Mar 7

STL3@

SJ2

Mar 27

SJ1@

STL2

Mar 31

STL4@

SJ5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-11052%

SJ-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 80 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat STL 5-4. M. Celebrini led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	2	1	1	4
SJ	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

STL won 0 · SJ won 1

STL

Play-by-play · 271 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:58
Philip Broberg Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:56
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:56
Icing
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:40
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Wide Right
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:38
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:38
Adam Gaudette Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (15), Vincent Desharnais (6)
· ·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:30
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:30
Icing
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:13
Mario Ferraro Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·18:33
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Jordan Kyrou
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:50
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:30
Dalibor Dvorsky shot blocked by Nick Leddy
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:23
Colton Parayko Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:11
Will Smith shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:50
Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:23
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:23
Goalie Stopped
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:21
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:53
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:53
Icing
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:41
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:41
Puck in Netting
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:17
Jonatan Berggren Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·14:08
Robert Thomas shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·14:02
Theo Lindstein Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·14:01
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·13:57
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
STL 4·SJ 4

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -110/SJ -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off St. Louis Blues, 5–4.

SJ +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
57.2%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL