NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

STL

31-31-11

34-31-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSTL -110

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off St. Louis Blues, 5–4.

SJ +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

Jake Neighbours

LW · #63

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

STL31-31-11

SJ34-31-7

STL31-31-11SJ34-31-7

STL

31-31-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

34-31-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Mar 7

STL3@

SJ2

Mar 27

SJ1@

STL2

Mar 31

STL4@

SJ5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-11052%

SJ-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat STL 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	2	1	1	4
SJ	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

STL won 0 · SJ won 1

STL

Play-by-play · 271 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:58
Philip Broberg Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:56
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:56
Icing
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:40
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Wide Right
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:38
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:38
Adam Gaudette Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (15), Vincent Desharnais (6)
· ·
STL 4·SJ 5
3rd·19:30
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:30
Icing
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:13
Mario Ferraro Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·18:33
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Jordan Kyrou
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:50
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:30
Dalibor Dvorsky shot blocked by Nick Leddy
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:23
Colton Parayko Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:11
Will Smith shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:50
Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:23
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:23
Goalie Stopped
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:21
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:53
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:53
Icing
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:41
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:41
Puck in Netting
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:17
Jonatan Berggren Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·14:08
Robert Thomas shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·14:02
Theo Lindstein Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·14:01
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
· ·
STL 4·SJ 4
3rd·13:57
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
STL 4·SJ 4

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -110/SJ -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
SHOT MPH95.697
Colton ParaykoSTL · D
BURSTS9494
Cam FowlerSTL · D
DIST MI260.294
Dylan HollowaySTL · LW
SHOT MPH93.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SJ vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Dylan HollowaySTL
3.1± 1.3high
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
2.6± 2.1high

Goals

Robert ThomasSTL
0.7± 1.2high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Dylan HollowaySTL
0.4± 0.8high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
Robert ThomasSTL
1.4± 1.1high
Dylan HollowaySTL
1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands