Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at VGK?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

VAN

21-44-8

VGK

33-26-16

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesVGK leads series 2-0VegasVGK -360

VAN · top performer

Evander Kane

LW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Reilly Smith

RW · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-1	1	3	2	5	18:14
B. BoeserRW · #6	1	0	-2	3	3	1	0	17:36
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	16:53
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5:19
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	8:53
E. KaneLW · #91	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:42
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:14
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-2	3	2	1	0	16:43
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	14:54
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	-1	4	2	1	0	18:12
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:08
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	20:24
F. HronekD · #17	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	28:00
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	10:54
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	25:22
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-2	0	3	0	2	13:53
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	22:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	33	3	30	.909	58:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	1	2	7	0	0	17:41
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	19:45
N. DowdC · #26	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	8:29
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:35
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	15:05
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	15:43
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	10:16
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:19
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	2	2	1	1	5	12:29
R. SmithRW · #19	1	0	2	5	0	0	0	13:10
C. SmithRW · #22	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	9:55
M. StoneRW · #61	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	20:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:29
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:53
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:57
J. LauzonD · #5	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	16:40
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	21:38
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	22:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	24	2	22	.917	59:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK leads series 2-0

Feb 5

VAN2@

VGK5

Mar 31

VAN2@

VGK4today

Apr 8

VGK2@

VAN1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+28526%

VGK-36078%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 52 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat VAN 4-2. R. Smith led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	1	1	0	2
VGK	0	3	1	4

Period scoring

VAN won 1 · VGK won 2

VAN

VGK

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:34
Teddy Blueger hit Colton Sissons
·
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:03
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Tom Willander
·
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:01
Jack Eichel hit Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:50
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:50
Cole Smith Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (11), Nic Dowd (14)
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:43
Jeremy Lauzon Wrist Shot Wide Right
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·17:11
Mark Stone hit Marcus Pettersson
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:20
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:20
Hand Pass
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:15
Takeaway by Brock Boeser
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:14
Brett Howden faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:14
Icing
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:06
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:06
Icing
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:47
Nils Hoglander hit Kaedan Korczak
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:31
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Colton Sissons
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:26
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:22
Linus Karlsson Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·14:56
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
· ·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·14:56
Icing
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·14:38
Liam Ohgren Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·14:18
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Brett Howden
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·14:03
Jeremy Lauzon hit Jake DeBrusk
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·13:23
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Ivan Barbashev
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·13:23
Goalie Stopped
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·13:20
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·13:17
Keegan Kolesar hit Filip Hronek
·
VAN 2·VGK 3
3rd·13:05
Keegan Kolesar Snap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
VAN 2·VGK 3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +285/VGK -360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Vancouver Canucks, 4–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.5%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
67.5%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.5%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.5%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+285

Close price

+285

Open no-vig

24.9%

Close no-vig

24.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at VGK?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL