Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PIT

PIT

37-21-16

NYI

42-28-5

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesPIT wins series 2-1VegasNYI -130

PIT · top performer

Anthony Mantha

RW · #39

3Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	11:44
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	3	3	3	3	3	0	14:23
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:58
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	2	1	3	0	1	0	16:48
C. DewarC · #19	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	15:08
A. HayesRW · #85	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:49
B. KindelC · #81	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	14:25
A. ManthaRW · #39	2	1	4	4	0	0	0	18:13
T. NovakC · #18	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	12:19
R. RakellRW · #67	2	0	3	3	1	0	2	16:28
B. RustRW · #17	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	18:41
E. SoderblomLW · #25	1	0	0	2	3	1	5	11:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	2	1	3	1	0	18:53
S. GirardD · #49	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	20:50
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:41
K. LetangD · #58	0	2	3	0	1	1	0	19:43
R. SheaD · #5	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	19:04
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	2	3	2	1	2	0	20:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	23	3	20	.870	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	1	1	-2	3	0	1	2	18:21
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	12:38
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:29
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-2	0	4	2	0	17:41
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	15:03
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:06
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	-2	1	3	1	0	15:38
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:55
J. PageauC · #44	0	1	-2	0	0	0	2	14:55
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	11:12
C. RitchieC · #64	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	13:57
B. SchennC · #10	1	0	-2	1	3	1	0	16:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	2	-2	1	0	1	0	17:48
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	14:41
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	22:23
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	20:31
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	-2	4	1	1	0	22:14
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	20:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	3	1	2	.667	12:06
I. SorokinG · #30	29	7	22	.759	47:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Oct 9

NYI3@

PIT4

Feb 4

PIT4@

NYI5

Mar 30

PIT8@

NYI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+11048%

NYI-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NYI 8-3. A. Mantha led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	0	5	3	8
NYI	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · NYI won 0

PIT

NYI

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:42
Kyle MacLean hit Samuel Girard
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:38
Carson Soucy Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:36
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:36
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:34
Marc Gatcomb Backhand Wide Right
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:08
Kyle MacLean Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:02
Takeaway by Tommy Novak
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Avery Hayes
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:37
Ben Kindel shot blocked by Adam Boqvist
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:22
Anthony Mantha Snap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:09
Samuel Girard shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·17:32
Elmer Soderblom hit Carson Soucy
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·17:08
Takeaway by Ryan Shea
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:45
Ryan Pulock Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:16
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:16
Bryan Rust Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (38), Kris Letang (27)
· ·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·15:35
Adam Boqvist shot blocked by Ben Kindel
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:30
Marc Gatcomb shot blocked by Kyle MacLean
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:29
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:29
Icing
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:06
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:06
Puck in Benches
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:49
Rickard Rakell Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:33
Justin Brazeau hit Ryan Pulock
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:28
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:28
Icing
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·13:40
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
PIT 7·NYI 3

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +110/NYI -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into New York Islanders and beat them, 8–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Anthony Mantha · PIT18:240.8950.0%69.8%18:24 TOI · 0.89 iXG · 50.0% CF · 69.8% xGF
Ben Kindel · PIT14:420.5567.9%76.3%14:42 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 67.9% CF · 76.3% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT16:540.5547.8%66.3%16:54 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 47.8% CF · 66.3% xGF
Sidney Crosby · PIT17:000.5261.1%64.4%17:00 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 61.1% CF · 64.4% xGF
#848299311:480.4460.9%67.9%11:48 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 60.9% CF · 67.9% xGF
Bo Horvat · NYI18:060.4351.4%35.7%18:06 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 51.4% CF · 35.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Arturs Silovs · PIT20–3.870-0.5520–3 · .870 SV% · -0.55 GSAx
David Rittich · NYI2–1.667-0.632–1 · .667 SV% · -0.63 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI22–7.759-3.6822–7 · .759 SV% · -3.68 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
60.9%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.9%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.9%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsNew York Islanders

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