NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PIT

PIT

37-21-16

NYI

42-28-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesPIT wins series 2-1VegasNYI -130

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into New York Islanders and beat them, 8–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

3Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

PIT37-21-16

NYI42-28-5

PIT37-21-16NYI42-28-5

PIT

37-21-16

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

42-28-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Oct 9

NYI3@

PIT4

Feb 4

PIT4@

NYI5

Mar 30

PIT8@

NYI3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+11048%

NYI-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NYI 8-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	0	5	3	8
NYI	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · NYI won 0

PIT

NYI

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:42
Kyle MacLean hit Samuel Girard
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:38
Carson Soucy Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:36
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:36
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:34
Marc Gatcomb Backhand Wide Right
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:08
Kyle MacLean Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·19:02
Takeaway by Tommy Novak
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Avery Hayes
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:37
Ben Kindel shot blocked by Adam Boqvist
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:22
Anthony Mantha Snap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·18:09
Samuel Girard shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·17:32
Elmer Soderblom hit Carson Soucy
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·17:08
Takeaway by Ryan Shea
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:45
Ryan Pulock Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:16
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·16:16
Bryan Rust Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (38), Kris Letang (27)
· ·
PIT 8·NYI 3
3rd·15:35
Adam Boqvist shot blocked by Ben Kindel
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:30
Marc Gatcomb shot blocked by Kyle MacLean
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:29
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:29
Icing
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:06
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·15:06
Puck in Benches
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:49
Rickard Rakell Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:33
Justin Brazeau hit Ryan Pulock
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:28
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·14:28
Icing
PIT 7·NYI 3
3rd·13:40
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
PIT 7·NYI 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +110/NYI -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
0.3± 0.4high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands