Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2EDM

EDM

31-25-8

VGK

29-21-14

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriesEDM leads series 2-0VegasVGK -110

EDM · top performer

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	5:05
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	15:33
L. DraisaitlC · #29	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	20:59
T. FredericC · #10	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:59
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:33
K. KapanenRW · #42	1	0	0	2	2	1	0	15:56
C. McDavidC · #97	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	21:37
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	19:11
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	1	0	1	1	4	2	0	15:05
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:14
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	7:39
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	21:51
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	2	0	0	1	2	14:12
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	16:29
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	22:33
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	23:14
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	2	1	1	4	2	19:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	26	2	24	.923	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	0	2	4	0	0	18:11
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	15:27
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	5	0	0	0	17:04
N. DowdC · #62	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:54
J. EichelC · #9	1	0	-1	5	0	0	0	21:40
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	15:49
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	15:29
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	9:26
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	18:29
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	8:36
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:43
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	20:25
N. HanifinD · #15	1	0	1	2	0	4	0	21:15
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:01
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-2	0	0	3	0	14:41
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:33
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	21:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	18	3	15	.833	59:24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM leads series 2-0

Dec 22

VGK3@

EDM4

Mar 9

EDM4@

VGK2today

Mar 27

EDM4@

VGK3

Apr 5

VGK5@

EDM1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-11052%

VGK-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat VGK 4-2. L. Draisaitl led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	0	1	3	4
VGK	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · VGK won 0

EDM

VGK

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
Josh Samanski Tripping against Colton Sissons
·
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Mattias Ekholm
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:47
Tomas Hertl Backhand saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:42
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:42
Off-side
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:16
Giveaway by Brett Howden
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:03
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:03
Kasperi Kapanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (73), Mattias Ekholm (28)
· ·
EDM 4·VGK 2
3rd·17:48
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
·
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:33
Takeaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:27
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:27
Icing
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:20
Jason Dickinson hit Jack Eichel
·
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:43
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:43
Jack Eichel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (47)
·
EDM 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·15:56
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·15:37
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·15:13
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·15:13
Shea Theodore High-sticking against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·15:13
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·15:13
Leon Draisaitl Backhand saved by Adin Hill
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:54
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:54
Puck in Netting
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:52
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Vasily Podkolzin
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:51
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:51
Puck in Netting
EDM 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:47
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Ty Emberson
·
EDM 3·VGK 1

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -110/VGK -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–2.

EDM +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL