NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

MIN

37-16-11

COL

43-10-9

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -185

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	22:26
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	12:52
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	1	0	1	0	4	0	21:34
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:00
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-2	2	3	1	2	17:30
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	0	-2	4	1	0	2	22:41
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	10:44
N. SturmC · #78	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	7:47
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:36
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	15:03
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	12:39
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	17:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	13:23
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	17:53
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	28:14
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	-2	0	0	1	2	26:48
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:48
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	36	2	34	.944	64:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	6:12
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	10:05
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	2	4	0	2	12:41
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	14:58
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	1	5	3	1	0	21:47
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	14:06
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	13:11
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	0	1	9	0	0	2	22:29
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	25:01
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:06
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	15:42
N. RoyC · #10	1	0	1	3	0	0	2	12:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	-1	0	0	5	0	18:41
B. KulakD · #27	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:04
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	25:00
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:44
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	14:14
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	25:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	34	2	32	.941	63:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 4

MIN6@

COL9

May 6

MIN2@

COL5

May 10

COL1@

MIN5

May 12

COL5@

MIN2

May 14

MIN3@

COL4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+15439%

COL-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat MIN 3-2. N. MacKinnon led the way — 1 G · 9 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	2
COL	0	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · COL won 2

MIN

COL

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Nazem Kadri Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Martin Necas Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Valeri Nichushkin Goal Wrist Shot
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
MIN 1·COL 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
MIN 1·COL 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·4:46
Matt Boldy shot blocked by Brent Burns
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·4:38
Kirill Kaprizov Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·4:13
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·4:03
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Brent Burns
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·3:57
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·3:57
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·3:57
Nathan MacKinnon Interference against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·2:14
Brock Nelson shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·2:11
Takeaway by Brock Nelson
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·2:06
Bobby Brink Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·1:44
Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·1:18
Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·1:14
Cale Makar Backhand Hit Left Post
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·0:58
Martin Necas Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·0:48
Takeaway by Brock Nelson
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·0:00
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
MIN 2·COL 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MIN 2·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +154/COL -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Minnesota Wild, 3–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nathan MacKinnon · COL22:361.0982.0%84.1%22:36 TOI · 1.09 iXG · 82.0% CF · 84.1% xGF
Martin Necas · COL25:001.0166.0%70.2%25:00 TOI · 1.01 iXG · 66.0% CF · 70.2% xGF
Nazem Kadri · COL22:000.9571.4%76.9%22:00 TOI · 0.95 iXG · 71.4% CF · 76.9% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN22:420.6243.6%38.3%22:42 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 43.6% CF · 38.3% xGF
Mats Zuccarello · MIN17:480.6061.8%53.8%17:48 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 61.8% CF · 53.8% xGF
Nicolas Roy · COL12:300.4944.4%56.8%12:30 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 44.4% CF · 56.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jesper Wallstedt · MIN34–2.944+3.2534–2 · .944 SV% · +3.25 GSAx
Scott Wedgewood · COL32–2.941+1.6032–2 · .941 SV% · +1.60 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
61.5%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.5%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.5%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Minnesota WildColorado Avalanche

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