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FINAL+1COL
MIN

MIN

37-16-11

23
COL

COL

43-10-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -185

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Minnesota Wild, 3–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Joel Eriksson Ek

Joel Eriksson Ek

C · #14

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Nazem Kadri

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
3
MIN37-16-11COL43-10-9
MIN

MIN

37-16-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

43-10-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Playoff series

May 4MINMIN6@COLCOL9
May 6MINMIN2@COLCOL5
May 10COLCOL1@MINMIN5
May 12COLCOL5@MINMIN2
May 14MINMIN3@COLCOL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+15439%
COLCOL-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat MIN 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
MIN002002
COL011013

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · COL won 2

0
0

1

0
1

2

2
1

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

MIN
COL

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    MIN 1·COL 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    MIN 1·COL 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    MIN 1·COL 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot

    MIN 1·COL 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    MIN 1·COL 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Nazem Kadri Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 1·COL 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    MIN 1·COL 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Martin Necas Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 1·COL 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot

    MIN 1·COL 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Valeri Nichushkin Goal Wrist Shot

    MIN 1·COL 2

  11. SO·0:00

    Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 1·COL 2

  12. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    MIN 1·COL 2

  13. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    MIN 2·COL 2

  14. OT·4:46

    Matt Boldy shot blocked by Brent Burns

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  15. OT·4:38

    Kirill Kaprizov Slap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  16. OT·4:13

    Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  17. OT·4:03

    Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Brent Burns

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  18. OT·3:57

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  19. OT·3:57

    Timeout - Visitor

    MIN 2·COL 2

  20. OT·3:57

    Nathan MacKinnon Interference against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  21. OT·2:14

    Brock Nelson shot blocked by Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  22. OT·2:11

    Takeaway by Brock Nelson

    MIN 2·COL 2

  23. OT·2:06

    Bobby Brink Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  24. OT·1:44

    Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  25. OT·1:18

    Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  26. OT·1:14

    Cale Makar Backhand Hit Left Post

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  27. OT·0:58

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  28. OT·0:48

    Takeaway by Brock Nelson

    MIN 2·COL 2

  29. OT·0:00

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    MIN 2·COL 2

  30. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    MIN 2·COL 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

COL

Home

34

Shots

36

25.0

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

8

28

Faceoffs W

22

21

Blocks

14

19

Giveaways

9

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +154/COL -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR