
TB
39-19-4

BUF
39-19-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
uffalo Sabres held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 8–7.
BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov
RW · #86
2
G
1
A
—
SOG
BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson
C · #72
0
G
4
A
—
SOG
NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


TB
39-19-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
BUF
39-19-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
57
PIM
45
Season series
BUF leads series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 13 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BUF beat TB 8-7.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| BUF | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
Period scoring
TB won 1 · BUF won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 362 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·20:00
Anthony Cirelli Charging against Alex Tuch
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:58
Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:49
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:35
Brayden Point Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:20
Josh Doan Backhand Wide Left
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:13
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:09
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·19:09
Puck in Benches
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·18:31
Tage Thompson hit Pontus Holmberg
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·18:21
Yanni Gourde Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·17:54
Yanni Gourde Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·16:43
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·16:39
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Owen Power
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·16:25
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·16:16
Noah Ostlund hit Jake Guentzel
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·15:43
Brayden Point faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·15:43
Josh Doan Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Rasmus Dahlin (44)
· ·
TB 7·BUF 8
- 3rd·15:40
Jason Zucker Tip-In Hit Left Post
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·15:03
Jason Zucker faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·15:03
On-Ice Official
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·15:03
Zemgus Girgensons Slashing against Noah Ostlund
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·15:00
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·14:59
Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·14:29
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·14:29
Jason Zucker Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan McLeod (33)
·
TB 7·BUF 7
- 3rd·14:22
Conor Geekie Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 6
- 3rd·14:05
Scott Sabourin hit Owen Power
·
TB 7·BUF 6
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
BUF
Home
28
Shots
42
50.0
PCT
57.1
57
PIM
45
32
Faceoffs W
32
6
Blocks
15
11
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
5
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/BUF -105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Ryan McLeodBUF · CBURSTS7299
Rasmus DahlinBUF · DDIST MI46.992
Bowen ByramBUF · DBURSTS1691
Josh NorrisBUF · CSKATE MPH22.989
Mattias SamuelssonBUF · DDIST MI41.088
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · BUF favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit