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FINAL+1BUF
TB

TB

39-19-4

78
BUF

BUF

39-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-1VegasTB -115

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 8–7.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Nikita Kucherov

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

4Points

0

G

4

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
8
TB39-19-4BUF39-19-6
TB

TB

39-19-4

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

39-19-6

8
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

57

PIM

45

Season series

BUF leads series 2-1

Feb 4BUFBUF3@TBTB4
Mar 1BUFBUF6@TBTB2
Mar 8TBTB7@BUFBUF8today
Apr 6TBTB2@BUFBUF4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-11553%
BUFBUF-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TB 8-7.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB0437
BUF1348

Period scoring

TB won 1 · BUF won 2

0
1

1

4
3

2

3
4

3

TB
BUF

Play-by-play · 362 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 7·BUF 8

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 7·BUF 8

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Anthony Cirelli Charging against Alex Tuch

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    TB 7·BUF 8

  5. 3rd·19:49

    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh

    TB 7·BUF 8

  6. 3rd·19:35

    Brayden Point Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  7. 3rd·19:20

    Josh Doan Backhand Wide Left

    TB 7·BUF 8

  8. 3rd·19:13

    Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  9. 3rd·19:09

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Brayden Point

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  10. 3rd·19:09

    Puck in Benches

    TB 7·BUF 8

  11. 3rd·18:31

    Tage Thompson hit Pontus Holmberg

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  12. 3rd·18:21

    Yanni Gourde Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  13. 3rd·17:54

    Yanni Gourde Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  14. 3rd·16:43

    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  15. 3rd·16:39

    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Owen Power

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  16. 3rd·16:25

    Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  17. 3rd·16:16

    Noah Ostlund hit Jake Guentzel

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  18. 3rd·15:43

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  19. 3rd·15:43

    Josh Doan Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Rasmus Dahlin (44)

    · ·

    TB 7·BUF 8

  20. 3rd·15:40

    Jason Zucker Tip-In Hit Left Post

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  21. 3rd·15:34

    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde

    TB 7·BUF 7

  22. 3rd·15:03

    Jason Zucker faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  23. 3rd·15:03

    On-Ice Official

    TB 7·BUF 7

  24. 3rd·15:03

    Zemgus Girgensons Slashing against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  25. 3rd·15:00

    Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  26. 3rd·14:59

    Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  27. 3rd·14:29

    Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  28. 3rd·14:29

    Jason Zucker Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan McLeod (33)

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 7

  29. 3rd·14:22

    Conor Geekie Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 6

  30. 3rd·14:05

    Scott Sabourin hit Owen Power

    ·

    TB 7·BUF 6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

28

Shots

42

50.0

PCT

57.1

57

PIM

45

32

Faceoffs W

32

6

Blocks

15

11

Giveaways

17

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/BUF -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989
  • Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D
    DIST MI41.088

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR