Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

39-19-4

BUF

39-19-6

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-1VegasTB -115

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jason Zucker

LW · #17

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:02
A. CirelliC · #71	0	1	1	1	4	0	2	18:55
C. GeekieC · #14	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	7:33
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	1	0	0	1	4	0	2	15:48
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	18:39
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:44
B. HagelLW · #38	1	1	1	2	0	1	11	16:42
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	13:17
N. KucherovRW · #86	2	1	1	5	5	0	2	19:15
C. PerryRW · #10	1	0	2	1	0	0	5	8:54
B. PointC · #21	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:13
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	4	0	5	4:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	6:47
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-1	1	4	0	12	18:37
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	20:07
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	20:41
J.J. MoserD · #90	1	2	2	3	2	0	0	26:17
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	3	2	4	1	1	7	23:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	42	8	34	.810	58:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	14:15
S. CarrickC · #10	1	0	-2	3	3	0	5	6:03
J. DoanRW · #91	2	0	-2	4	2	0	0	18:25
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-3	1	0	0	5	8:46
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	-1	0	3	0	5	6:03
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	21:03
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	17:55
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	-1	2	1	0	2	16:34
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	15:19
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	4	-1	3	4	1	0	19:39
A. TuchRW · #89	2	0	0	4	3	2	0	18:54
J. ZuckerLW · #17	2	1	1	6	0	1	0	16:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	3	0	7	1	0	12	20:12
R. DahlinD · #26	1	2	2	1	0	1	5	26:16
M. KesselringD · #8	0	1	1	1	0	0	7	6:03
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	8:55
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-4	0	0	3	2	27:08
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-3	3	2	3	2	24:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	28	7	22	.786	59:21

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

57.1

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF leads series 2-1

Feb 4

BUF3@

TB4

Mar 1

BUF6@

TB2

Mar 8

TB7@

BUF8today

Apr 6

TB2@

BUF4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11553%

BUF-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TB 8-7. J. Zucker led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	4	3	7
BUF	1	3	4	8

Period scoring

TB won 1 · BUF won 2

BUF

Play-by-play · 362 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·20:00
Anthony Cirelli Charging against Alex Tuch
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:58
Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:49
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:35
Brayden Point Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:20
Josh Doan Backhand Wide Left
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:13
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:09
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·19:09
Puck in Benches
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·18:31
Tage Thompson hit Pontus Holmberg
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·18:21
Yanni Gourde Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·17:54
Yanni Gourde Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·16:43
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·16:39
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Owen Power
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·16:25
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·16:16
Noah Ostlund hit Jake Guentzel
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·15:43
Brayden Point faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·15:43
Josh Doan Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Rasmus Dahlin (44)
· ·
TB 7·BUF 8
3rd·15:40
Jason Zucker Tip-In Hit Left Post
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·15:03
Jason Zucker faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·15:03
On-Ice Official
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·15:03
Zemgus Girgensons Slashing against Noah Ostlund
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·15:00
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·14:59
Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·14:29
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·14:29
Jason Zucker Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan McLeod (33)
·
TB 7·BUF 7
3rd·14:22
Conor Geekie Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 7·BUF 6
3rd·14:05
Scott Sabourin hit Owen Power
·
TB 7·BUF 6

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -115/BUF -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 8–7.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jason Zucker · BUF16:540.8467.6%74.1%16:54 TOI · 0.84 iXG · 67.6% CF · 74.1% xGF
Bowen Byram · CHI20:120.6559.1%60.0%20:12 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 59.1% CF · 60.0% xGF
Brayden Point · TBL17:360.6357.5%55.9%17:36 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 57.5% CF · 55.9% xGF
Brandon Hagel · TBL16:480.5753.3%60.2%16:48 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 53.3% CF · 60.2% xGF
J.J. Moser · TBL26:180.4941.3%30.3%26:18 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 41.3% CF · 30.3% xGF
Nikita Kucherov · TBL19:180.4154.8%60.9%19:18 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 54.8% CF · 60.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF22–7.786-3.5722–7 · .786 SV% · -3.57 GSAx
Jonas Johansson · TBL34–8.810-3.6634–8 · .810 SV% · -3.66 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningBuffalo Sabres

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