Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4STL

STL

25-29-9

ANA

35-25-3

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasANA -175

STL · top performer

Jordan Kyrou

RW · #25

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Beckett Sennecke

RW · #45

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:09
J. DrouinLW · #92	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:15
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	14:18
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:52
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	17:43
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:43
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	13:16
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	1	1	3	0	1	0	14:58
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	11:02
P. SuterC · #22	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:14
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	1	3	0	4	0	19:46
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	13:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	27:04
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	21:11
J. HollD · #4	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:44
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	18:21
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	20:16
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	1	1	1	0	17	11:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	18:05
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	18:56
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	18:44
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	1	0	14	9:01
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	18:09
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	17:06
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:04
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:08
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	22:41
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:19
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	11:58
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	12:44
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	24:33
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-2	2	0	3	0	16:59
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	15:09
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	23:19
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	34	3	31	.912	57:58

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 2

ANA4@

STL1

Mar 9

STL4@

ANA0today

Apr 4

STL6@

ANA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+14541%

ANA-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat ANA 4-0. J. Kyrou led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	3	1	4
ANA	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

STL won 2 · ANA won 0

STL

ANA

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·19:58
Ian Moore shot blocked by Alexey Toropchenko
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·18:59
Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Robert Thomas
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·18:47
Ian Moore Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Dylan Holloway
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·18:42
Takeaway by Dylan Holloway
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·18:36
Giveaway by Robert Thomas
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·18:27
Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·17:00
Ross Johnston hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·16:55
Ian Moore shot blocked by Ross Johnston
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·15:58
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·15:58
Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Justin Holl (1)
· ·
STL 4·ANA 0
3rd·15:44
Leo Carlsson hit Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·15:23
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·15:23
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·15:23
Timeout - Home
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·15:21
Chris Kreider Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·15:07
Jack Finley Snap Shot Above Crossbar
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:59
Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot Wide Left
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:50
Cutter Gauthier Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:46
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:46
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:44
Mikael Granlund Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:36
Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Matthew Kessel
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:32
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:32
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:25
Tim Washe Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:14
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
STL 3·ANA 0
3rd·14:14
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·ANA 0

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +145/ANA -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 4–0.

STL +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.6%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
65.6%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.6%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.6%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL