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FINAL+4STL
STL

STL

25-29-9

40
ANA

ANA

35-25-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasANA -175

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 4–0.

STL +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Jimmy Snuggerud

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Leo Carlsson

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
0
STL25-29-9ANA35-25-3
STL

STL

25-29-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

35-25-3

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

27

PIM

14

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 2ANAANA4@STLSTL1
Mar 9STLSTL4@ANAANA0today
Apr 4STLSTL6@ANAANA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+14541%
ANAANA-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat ANA 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL0314
ANA0000

Period scoring

STL won 2 · ANA won 0

0
0

1

3
0

2

1
0

3

STL
ANA

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 4·ANA 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 4·ANA 0

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Ian Moore shot blocked by Alexey Toropchenko

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  4. 3rd·18:59

    Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Robert Thomas

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  5. 3rd·18:47

    Ian Moore Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  6. 3rd·18:47

    Giveaway by Dylan Holloway

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  7. 3rd·18:42

    Takeaway by Dylan Holloway

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  8. 3rd·18:36

    Giveaway by Robert Thomas

    STL 4·ANA 0

  9. 3rd·18:27

    Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud

    STL 4·ANA 0

  10. 3rd·17:00

    Ross Johnston hit Logan Mailloux

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  11. 3rd·16:55

    Ian Moore shot blocked by Ross Johnston

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  12. 3rd·15:58

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  13. 3rd·15:58

    Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Justin Holl (1)

    · ·

    STL 4·ANA 0

  14. 3rd·15:44

    Leo Carlsson hit Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  15. 3rd·15:23

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  16. 3rd·15:23

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 3·ANA 0

  17. 3rd·15:23

    Timeout - Home

    STL 3·ANA 0

  18. 3rd·15:21

    Chris Kreider Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  19. 3rd·15:07

    Jack Finley Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    STL 3·ANA 0

  20. 3rd·14:59

    Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  21. 3rd·14:50

    Cutter Gauthier Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  22. 3rd·14:46

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  23. 3rd·14:46

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 3·ANA 0

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Mikael Granlund Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  25. 3rd·14:36

    Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Matthew Kessel

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  26. 3rd·14:32

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Robert Thomas

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  27. 3rd·14:32

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 3·ANA 0

  28. 3rd·14:25

    Tim Washe Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  29. 3rd·14:14

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    STL 3·ANA 0

  30. 3rd·14:14

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 3·ANA 0

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

35

Shots

22

33.3

PCT

0.0

27

PIM

14

22

Faceoffs W

30

14

Blocks

16

16

Giveaways

18

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +145/ANA -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Cam FowlerSTL · D
    DIST MI260.294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR