Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at DAL?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

CHI

23-29-11

DAL

39-14-10

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriesCHI wins series 2-1VegasDAL -325

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	19:33
T. BertuzziLW · #59	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	20:19
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	15:30
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:09
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	18:34
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:08
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	12:11
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:27
O. MooreC · #11	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1:49
F. NazarC · #91	0	2	1	3	0	3	0	18:48
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	10:24
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	2	3	2	0	1	0	18:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	-1	1	4	2	2	19:28
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:11
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	20:25
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	18:00
S. RinzelD · #6	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	22:20
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	23:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	31	4	27	.871	59:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:36
N. BastianRW · #11	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:32
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:16
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:04
M. BourqueC · #22	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	17:20
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:43
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	19:48
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	11:38
J. HryckowianC · #49	1	0	-1	4	0	0	0	14:28
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	2	3	1	2	19:20
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:55
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	1	-1	0	5	0	0	13:45
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	23:18
M. HeiskanenD · #4	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	24:26
E. LindellD · #23	0	1	0	1	1	4	0	23:23
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:47
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-2	2	3	1	0	13:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	19	3	16	.842	59:32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CHI wins series 2-1

Dec 28

CHI4@

DAL3

Jan 2

DAL3@

CHI4

Mar 8

CHI3@

DAL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+26028%

DAL-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CHI 4-3. M. Bourque led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CHI	2	0	1	0	3
DAL	1	0	2	1	4

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · DAL won 2

CHI

DAL

Play-by-play · 267 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:22
Game End
CHI 3·DAL 4
OT·0:22
End of OT
CHI 3·DAL 4
OT·0:22
Miro Heiskanen Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (17)
· ·
CHI 3·DAL 4
OT·0:00
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
CHI 3·DAL 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·19:37
Giveaway by Wyatt Kaiser
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·19:22
Miro Heiskanen Slap Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:58
Andrew Mangiapane hit Miro Heiskanen
·
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:45
Louis Crevier hit Michael Bunting
·
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:40
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:40
Connor Bedard Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (17), Frank Nazar (21)
· ·
CHI 3·DAL 3
3rd·18:30
Wyatt Johnston hit Connor Bedard
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·18:14
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·18:14
Puck in Netting
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·18:11
Ryan Greene Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:50
Sam Rinzel Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:43
Connor Bedard Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:29
Tyler Bertuzzi Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:15
Teuvo Teravainen Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·17:03
Takeaway by Connor Bedard
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·16:34
Esa Lindell hit Tyler Bertuzzi
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:57
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:57
TV Timeout
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:57
Wyatt Johnston Holding against Connor Bedard
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:50
Connor Bedard hit Wyatt Johnston
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:47
Mavrik Bourque Snap Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:31
Giveaway by Jason Robertson
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·15:29
Giveaway by Sam Rinzel
CHI 2·DAL 3
3rd·14:43
Jamie Benn Backhand Wide Right
· ·
CHI 2·DAL 3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +260/DAL -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Chicago Blackhawks, 4–3 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Justin Hryckowian · DAL14:360.6063.6%78.2%14:36 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 63.6% CF · 78.2% xGF
Tyler Bertuzzi · CHI20:180.5343.8%48.5%20:18 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 43.8% CF · 48.5% xGF
Mavrik Bourque · DAL17:300.4061.3%80.6%17:30 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 61.3% CF · 80.6% xGF
Wyatt Johnston · DAL19:180.3764.3%84.8%19:18 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 64.3% CF · 84.8% xGF
Miro Heiskanen · DAL24:420.3357.1%61.5%24:42 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 57.1% CF · 61.5% xGF
Connor Bedard · CHI19:360.3340.7%47.0%19:36 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 40.7% CF · 47.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Arvid Soderblom · CHI27–4.871+0.0227–4 · .871 SV% · +0.02 GSAx
Casey DeSmith · DAL16–3.842-0.9316–3 · .842 SV% · -0.93 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
71.1%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
71.1%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
71.1%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at DAL?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL