Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

DET

36-21-7

32-30-2

NHLSun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNJ -105

DET · top performer

Moritz Seider

D · #53

3Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:28
M. Brandsegg-NygardRW · #28	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	12:48
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:21
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	1	3	0	0	4	16:33
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:06
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	14:28
P. KaneRW · #88	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	19:12
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:56
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	10:57
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:26
D. ShineRW · #65	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	6:22
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	10:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:36
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	18:58
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	20:27
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	19:28
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:38
M. SeiderD · #53	1	2	2	5	1	1	0	25:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	21	0	21	1.000	39:52
C. TalbotG · #39	10	0	10	1.000	20:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	10:57
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:59
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:49
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	9:10
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:27
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:57
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:11
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	10:14
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	18:06
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	22:40
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	-1	2	3	0	2	15:47
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	12:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	18:23
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	24:21
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	0	4	1	1	2	21:59
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	15:50
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	20:45
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	16:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	30	3	27	.900	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 25

DET3@

NJ4

Mar 8

DET3@

NJ0today

Apr 11

NJ5@

DET3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-11553%

NJ-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat NJ 3-0. M. Seider led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	1	1	1	3
NJ	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

DET won 3 · NJ won 0

DET

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:39
Michael Rasmussen faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:39
Puck in Netting
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:37
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:29
Takeaway by Lenni Hameenaho
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:22
Nick Bjugstad Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:15
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:13
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:13
Goalie Stopped
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:11
Luke Hughes Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
· ·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·19:04
Luke Hughes shot blocked by Connor Brown
· ·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·18:38
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Mason Appleton
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·18:16
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·18:11
Takeaway by Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Lucas Raymond
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·16:33
Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·16:17
Giveaway by Patrick Kane
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·15:59
Cody Glass faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·15:59
Puck in Benches
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·15:45
Cody Glass faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·15:45
Simon Nemec Tripping against Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·15:18
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Dougie Hamilton
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·15:10
Dougie Hamilton Snap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·14:56
Lenni Hameenaho Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·14:53
Cody Glass faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·14:53
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·14:28
Brenden Dillon hit Marco Kasper
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·13:46
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 3·NJ 0
3rd·13:02
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
DET 3·NJ 0

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET -115/NJ -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 3–0.

DET +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Connor Brown · NJD20:480.5169.0%53.0%20:48 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 69.0% CF · 53.0% xGF
Dawson Mercer · NJD12:300.4334.6%43.1%12:30 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 34.6% CF · 43.1% xGF
Emmitt Finnie · DET14:300.4236.7%65.5%14:30 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 36.7% CF · 65.5% xGF
Lucas Raymond · DET19:300.3443.8%58.7%19:30 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 43.8% CF · 58.7% xGF
James van Riemsdyk · DET10:300.3056.3%63.4%10:30 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 56.3% CF · 63.4% xGF
Andrew Copp · DET16:360.2857.1%53.7%16:36 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 57.1% CF · 53.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

John Gibson · DET21–01.000+1.3621–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.36 GSAx
Cam Talbot · DET10–01.000+0.6710–0 · 1.000 SV% · +0.67 GSAx
Jacob Markstrom · FLA27–3.900-0.7027–3 · .900 SV% · -0.70 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(NJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.0%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.0%
P(NJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsNew Jersey Devils

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