
MIN
1-0

NYG
0-1
NFL · Drive chart
20 drives · 2 TD · 3 FG · 2 INT · 12 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · NYG favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYG win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYG win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYG win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Line Judge
Kent Payne
Side Judge
James Coleman
Back Judge
Jonah Monroe
Back Judge
Tony Josselyn
Field Judge
Karina Tovar
Umpire
Scott Walker
Down Judge
Andy Warner
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
MIN · top performer

Carson Wentz
· #11
9/14
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
NYG · top performer

Jameis Winston
· #19
8/9
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
Biggest swing: 15pp · —
NFL · Box scoreNGS
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/14 | 81 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4/7 | 34 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2/3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 16/26 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 34 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 27 | 0 | 17 | |
| 3 | 27 | 0 | 18 | |
| 3 | 17 | 0 | 15 | |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 27 | 111 | 0 | 18 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 51 | 1 | 28 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 13 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 16 | 131 | 1 | 28 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 65 | 42 | 4 | 8 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 50 | 28 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 50 | 28 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 27 | 18 | 0 | |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 35 | 18 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 54 | 1/1 | 7 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 54 | 1/1 | 7 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 141 | 47.0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 113 | 37.7 | 2 | |
| Team | 6 | 254 | 42.3 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/9 | 89 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5/8 | 45 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3/4 | 26 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 16/21 | 131 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 20 | 0 | 4 | |
| 4 | 19 | 0 | 7 | |
| 5 | 14 | 0 | 6 | |
| 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| Team | 27 | 70 | 0 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40 | 0 | 40 | |
| 3 | 34 | 1 | 15 | |
| 1 | 20 | 0 | 20 | |
| 2 | 17 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 14 | 0 | 14 | |
| 2 | 11 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 16 | 160 | 1 | 40 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 59 | 38 | 1 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 69 | 25 | 0 | |
| 1 | 27 | 27 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 96 | 27 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 30 | 15 | 0 | |
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 40 | 15 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 46 | 1/1 | 4 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 46 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 292 | 48.7 | 3 | |
| Team | 6 | 292 | 48.7 | 3 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
238
Total yds
201
111
Rush yds
70
0
TO
2
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
NYG
Home
238
Total yards
201
111
Rushing yds
70
0
Turnovers
2
7-49
totalPenaltiesYards
7-45
29:27
possessionTime
30:33
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Between — and 3
Total
40.5
Defensive · -6.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
MIN beat NYG 13-10. Carson Wentz led the way — 9/14 · 81 YDS · 1 TD · 103.6 QBR. NYG outscored the other side 10-0 in the 2nd quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| NYG | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 40.5·MIN -122/NYG +102
Recap · NFL
innesota Vikings went into New York Giants and beat them, 13–10. Decided by 3.
MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 40.5 by 17.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
40.5
+4.0 since open
Win probability
NYG vs MIN
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · NYG won 1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 165 plays
−2pp
−2pp
+1pp
+1pp
−4pp
+0.5pp
−4pp
+2pp
−2pp
+5pp
−1pp
+0.8pp
+2pp
−2pp
−1pp
−3pp
+2pp
−1pp
+4pp
+1pp
+2pp
−4pp
+3pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
MIN
league avg
NYG
18.0
Pts / game
23.5
▶22.6
297
Yds / game
342
▶347
189
Pass yds / G
225
▶218
108
Rush yds / G
117
▶129
1.4
TO / G
0.9
▶0.8