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Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
43,537 attended
FINAL+24CHI
CLE
0-1
1034
CHI
1-0
NFL · Drive chart
24 drives · 5 TD · 3 FG · 3 INT · 1 Fum · 1 Downs · 1 Miss · 9 PuntPuntCLE3p · 8y PuntCHI3p · 6y FGCLE7p · 25y PuntCHI3p · 8y TDCLE10p · 81y MissCHI5p · 46y FumCLE6p · 15y TDCHI4p · 51y PuntCLE3p · 8y INTCHI11p · 41y PuntCLE3p · 6y FGCHI10p · 53y TDCHI4p · 78y DownsCLE8p · 64y PuntCHI5p · 40y PuntCLE3p · 5y TDCHI7p · 61y INTCLE6p · 15y PuntCHI3p · -7y INTCLE6p · 12y FGCHI4p PuntCLE3p · -1y TDCHI7p · 70y EndCLE7p · 59y
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
CLE
league avg
CHI
14.8
Pts / game
23.5
▶26.5
282
Yds / game
342
▶379
185
Pass yds / G
225
▶235
97
Rush yds / G
117
▶144
1.2
TO / G
0.9
▶0.5
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
