Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CHI

12-22

PregameSun, 5:00 PM EDTKOMO-TV, Prime Video-Seattle, WNBA League Pass

SEA

7-29

ATS/CHI -1.5O/U/178.5ML/CHI-125

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

4-6

CHI -1.3 vs SEA -5.3 margin

CHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-2.0 days

SEA 2 rest vs CHI 4

CHI has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+6.2

SEA Elo vs CHI Elo

CHI owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing SEA uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 168/16 - 5:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasCHI -1.5

Preview · WNBA

hicago Sky visit Seattle Storm Sunday at 8/16 - 5:00 PM EDT. CHI has lost 3 straight (3-4 in their last 7).

Vegas opened CHI as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 178.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 49% break-even, CHI the inverse. CHI comes in with 2 extra days of rest.

For bettors: the CHI side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 178.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 210 over 6.2h42m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 15

SEA90@

CHI95

Aug 11

CHI88@

SEA97

Aug 16

CHI@

SEAtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI-12556%

SEA+10549%

210· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

178.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

CHI @ SEA

8/16 - 5:00 PM EDT

StorylineCHI dropped 3 straight.

Rest going in

CHI +2 days

CHILong rest

3 days

last game Aug 12

SEAStandard

1 day

last game Aug 14

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

CHI -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

178.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

CHI -125

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CHImetricSEA

12-22

Record

7-29

Conf rank

-2.5

Pt diff

-5.2

Streak

4-6

Last 10

1-9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

CHI -1.5·O/U 178.5·CHI -125/SEA +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs CHI.

SEA is 1-9 recently; CHI is 4-6.

57.9%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA1–9-5.3
CHI4–6-1.3

Situational

SEA2d rest
CHI4d rest
-2.0d differential

CHI has 2 more rest days. SEA has 0 straight road games; CHI has 2.

Model angle

+11.1ppon SEA

SEA's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Venue split+1.2pp
▼Line steam-0.9pp

Players to watch

Dominique MalongaSEA
18.3points · ±7.2
Dominique Malonga · 18.3 pts · last-10 19.5 vs season 16.5.
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5points · ±6.0
Sydney Taylor · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 14.7.
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
15.2points · ±7.1
Flau'jae Johnson · 15.2 pts · last-10 16.1 vs season 13.9.

Head-to-head · 4-1 · last 5

SEA is 4-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-25SEA @ CHI95–57
2025-08-20SEA @ CHI94–88
2025-08-31CHI @ SEA69–79
2026-07-15SEA @ CHI90–95
2026-08-10CHI @ SEA88–97

Line move

open -105→+105toward CHI

The market has moved 2.4pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
59.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
57.7%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like SEA.

SEA's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+11.1

pp edge · SEA

-2.16

CLV pp · steam

3.6u · large

on SEA

56.1%

±8.9pp band

3.57u large — +7.3pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+9.3pp

-1.8pp post-cal

Kelly

14.3%

3.6% sized

Decimal

2.05

+7.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 11.1pp · SEA over CHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
SEA clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
SEA's venue form is 23.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.2pp
▼
Line steam73% conf
The market moved 2.2pp away from SEA since open.
-0.9pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
CHI has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.6pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
CHI is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
SEA has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SEA vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Dominique MalongaSEA
18.3± 7.2high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.9± 2.5high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.5± 3.4high
Azura StevensCHI
7.3± 2.8high

Assists

Natasha CloudCHI
6.0± 2.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
5.5± 2.5high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
4.9± 2.7medium

Blocks

Dominique MalongaSEA
1.5± 1.3high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.2± 0.7high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.8± 1.2high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.2± 1.2medium
Natasha CloudCHI
1.1± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkySeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Chicago Sky at Seattle Storm

SEA vs CHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like SEA.

SEA vs CHI.