
DAL
1-0

SEA
0-1
NFL · Drive chart
15 drives · 3 TD · 1 FG · 2 Downs · 1 Miss · 6 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
On the call · NFL
6 officials
Back Judge
Terrence Miles
Down Judge
Dana McKenzie
Field Judge
Mearl Robinson
Side Judge
Anthony Jeffries
Umpire
Terry Killens Jr.
Line Judge
Thomas Eaton
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
DAL · top performer

Joe Milton III
· #10
12/15
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
SEA · top performer

Drew Lock
· #2
9/13
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
Biggest swing: 17pp · —
NFL · Box scoreNGS
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | 107 | 1 | 0 | |
| 8/12 | 94 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 20/27 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 39 | 0 | 14 | |
| 7 | 36 | 0 | 9 | |
| 8 | 19 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | 10 | |
| 7 | 10 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 4 | |
| Team | 36 | 137 | 0 | 14 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 62 | 2 | 39 | |
| 4 | 30 | 0 | 10 | |
| 2 | 28 | 0 | 23 | |
| 2 | 25 | 0 | 14 | |
| 2 | 20 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | 13 | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | -2 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 20 | 201 | 2 | 39 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 65 | 33 | 3 | 5 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | |
| 1 | 23 | 23 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 48 | 25 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 29 | 2/2 | 5 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 29 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 146 | 48.7 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 146 | 48.7 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | 40 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5/8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 14/21 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 42 | 0 | 8 | |
| 5 | 36 | 0 | 20 | |
| 7 | 19 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 28 | 107 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 36 | 1 | 15 | |
| 3 | 13 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | -5 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 14 | 76 | 1 | 15 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 72 | 36 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 40 | 22 | 0 | |
| 2 | 34 | 18 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 74 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52 | 52 | 0 | |
| 1 | 18 | 18 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 70 | 52 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Team | 0/1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 141 | 47.0 | 2 | |
| Team | 3 | 141 | 47.0 | 2 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
338
Total yds
156
137
Rush yds
107
1
TO
0
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
338
Total yards
156
137
Rushing yds
107
1
Turnovers
0
13-103
totalPenaltiesYards
8-71
32:55
possessionTime
27:05
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -1.5
Between — and 3
0.5pt· 6.1h
Total
37.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
6· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
DAL beat SEA 17-7. Joe Milton III led the way — 12/15 · 107 YDS · 1 TD · 118.6 QBR. DAL outscored the other side 10-0 in the 2nd quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| SEA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Betting line
SEA -1.5·O/U 37.5·DAL +120/SEA -142
Recap · NFL
allas Cowboys went into Seattle Seahawks and beat them, 17–7.
DAL +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 37.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+0.5 since open
Total
37.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
SEA vs DAL
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · SEA won 1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 173 plays
+1pp
−0.8pp
+4pp
+2pp
−3pp
+0.8pp
BIG MOMENT
+7pp
−3pp
+4pp
−2pp
BIG MOMENT
+6pp
+1pp
+2pp
+2pp
−2pp
−1.0pp
−2pp
+1pp
−2pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
DAL
league avg
SEA
28.2
Pts / game
23.5
24.4
404
Yds / game
342
362
279
Pass yds / G
225
239
126
Rush yds / G
117
123
1.2
TO / G
0.9
1.2