Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream
IND
9-7
ATL
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Atlanta Dream Sunday at 8/16 - 5:00 PM EDT. IND is 5-3 in their last 8. ATL arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
46
FG %
45
Season series
ATL leads series 2-1
ATL71@IND83ATL108@IND101IND96@ATL113IND@ATLtodayScouting report
IND @ ATL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -16.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
9-7
Record
11-4
#3
Conf rank
#1
+2.7
Pt diff
+7.1
L2
Streak
W3
5-5
Last 10
7-3
61.2
Power score
78.0
#6
Power rank
#3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.4%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.9± 5.4medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.8± 9.1medium
- Rhyne HowardATL18.5± 9.4medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.2medium
- Aliyah BostonIND8.6± 2.3medium
- Naz HillmonATL5.3± 2.3medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.6± 3.2medium
- Jordin CanadaATL6.8± 3.0medium
- Rhyne HowardATL3.3± 1.9medium
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.6medium
- Makayla TimpsonIND0.9± 1.1medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.1medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.9± 2.1medium
- Jordin CanadaATL1.9± 1.8medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.6± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
ATL
46.4%
FG%
44.6
44.7%
34.8%
3PT %
33.5
34.2%
92.4
PPG
85.9
90.2
20.9
Assists / G
18.0
20.3
15.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.5