Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

IND

22-12

PregameSun, 5:00 PM EDTESPN, Disney+

ATL

21-12

ATS/ATL -1.5O/U/188.5ML/ATL-130

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

IND +10.1 vs ATL +7.4 margin

IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

ATL 3 rest vs IND 2

ATL has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+4.7

ATL Elo vs IND Elo

ATL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing IND uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 168/16 - 5:00 PM EDTSeriesATL leads series 2-1VegasATL -1.5

Preview · WNBA

ndiana Fever visit Atlanta Dream Sunday at 8/16 - 5:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 3-game win streak (5-2 in their last 7). ATL is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7.

Vegas opened ATL as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 188.5. ATL's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, IND the inverse.

For bettors: the ATL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 188.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedSpread ↘ 1.0pt over 6.2h1m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

FG %

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

Jun 4

ATL71@

IND83

Jun 18

ATL108@

IND101

Jun 20

IND96@

ATL113

Aug 16

IND@

ATLtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

188.5

High-scoring · +23.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+11048%

ATL-13057%

18· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 98 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

-1.0 since open

Total

188.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

IND @ ATL

8/16 - 5:00 PM EDT

StorylineIND riding a 3-game win streak.

Rest going in

ATL +1 day

INDStandard

1 day

last game Aug 14

ATLStandard

2 days

last game Aug 13

Model edge vs market

Mild edge

Spread

Market

ATL -1.5

Model

ATL -0.2

Edge

-1.3 pts

Total

Market

188.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

ATL -130

Model

ATL

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

INDmetricATL

22-12

Record

21-12

Conf rank

+6.0

Pt diff

+4.5

Streak

8-2

Last 10

8-2

71.0

Power score

71.2

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 188.5·IND +110/ATL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

ATL vs IND.

ATL is 8-2 recently; IND is 8-2.

60.1%

model · ATL win prob

Recent form

ATL8–2+7.4
IND8–2+10.1

Situational

ATL3d rest
IND2d rest
+1.0d differential

ATL has 1 more rest day. ATL has 1 straight road games; IND has 0.

Model angle

+5.8ppon ATL

ATL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+0.9pp
▼Line steam-0.3pp
▲Venue split+0.3pp

Players to watch

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.3points · ±4.2
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.3 pts · last-10 28.1 vs season 23.7.
Caitlin ClarkIND
22.5points · ±5.2
Caitlin Clark · 22.5 pts · last-10 23.5 vs season 21.
Allisha GrayATL
19.6points · ±7.0
Allisha Gray · 19.6 pts · last-10 20.4 vs season 18.4.

Head-to-head · 3-4 · last 7

ATL is 3-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-09-16ATL @ IND60–77
2025-09-18IND @ ATL87–85
2026-06-04ATL @ IND71–83
2026-06-18ATL @ IND108–101
2026-06-20IND @ ATL96–113

Line move

open -135→-130toward IND

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
60.6%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
59.2%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+5.8

pp edge · ATL

-0.87

CLV pp

1.7u · medium

on ATL

59.4%

±9.0pp band

1.65u medium — +2.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.1pp

-0.7pp post-cal

Kelly

6.6%

1.7% sized

Decimal

1.77

+2.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.8pp · ATL over IND

▲
Model confidence82% conf
ATL grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp away from ATL since open.
-0.3pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
ATL's venue form is 6.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.3pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
ATL has 3 days rest; IND has 2.
+0.3pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
ATL has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

ATL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.3± 4.2high
Caitlin ClarkIND
22.5± 5.2high
Allisha GrayATL
19.6± 7.0high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.7± 4.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.6± 3.6high
Brionna JonesATL
5.6± 3.6low

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
8.5± 2.0high
Jordin CanadaATL
7.6± 2.6high
Rhyne HowardATL
4.2± 2.2high

Blocks

Rhyne HowardATL
1.1± 1.3high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.0± 0.9high
Makayla TimpsonIND
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.1± 1.4high
Jordin CanadaATL
1.8± 1.2high
Angel ReeseATL
1.6± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream

ATL vs IND.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like ATL.

ATL vs IND.