Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 15, 2026

Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY

58,528 attended

FINAL+15BUF

CAR

1-1

1429

BUF

1-0

NFL · Drive chart

17 drives · 5 TD · 3 FG · 1 INT · 2 Downs · 1 Miss · 3 Punt

FGBUF7p · 54y
PuntCAR3p · 6y
TDBUF8p · 80y
PuntCAR3p · 8y
MissBUF11p · 57y
PuntCAR3p · -2y
FGBUF11p · 50y
TDCAR10p · 83y
½BUF5p · 27y
DownsCAR15p · 51y
FGBUF12p · 70y
DownsCAR7p · 22y
TDBUF8p · 49y
INTCAR4p · 1y
TDBUF3p · 22y
TDCAR12p · 75y
EndBUF1p · -1y

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

CAR

league avg

BUF

20.1

Pts / game

23.5

▶

31.1

311

Yds / game

342

▶

394

194

Pass yds / G

225

▶

234

116

Rush yds / G

117

▶

160

1.1

TO / G

0.9

▶

1.0

Player
Kenny Pickett · #12	16/19	92	1	0
Kyle Trask · #14	6/9	53	1	1
Bryce Young · #9	3/5	18	0	0
Team	25/33	140	2	1

Player
AJ Dillon · #28	2	29	0	20
Casey Washington · #88	2	20	0	11
Trevor Etienne · #23	4	18	0	11
Ja'seem Reed · #86	3	17	1	7
Roc Taylor · #39	1	13	0	13
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15	1	11	0	11
Elijah Cooks · #80	2	11	0	6
John Metchie III · #13	1	9	1	9
Jonathon Brooks · #25	1	9	0	9
Feleipe Franks · #81	3	9	0	4
Tommy Tremble · #82	1	6	0	6
Anthony Tyus III · #34	1	6	0	6
Ja'Tavion Sanders · #0	1	3	0	3
James Mitchell · #85	2	2	0	7
David Moore · #83	0	0	0	0
Xavier Legette · #17	0	0	0	0
Miles Davis · #37	0	0	0	0
Team	25	163	2	20

Player
Zakee Wheatley · #38	7	3	0	0
Isaiah Simmons · #27	6	5	0	0
Lathan Ransom · #22	4	3	0	0
Bam Martin-Scott · #54	4	2	0	0
Maema Njongmeta · #45	3	3	0	0
Chau Smith-Wade · #26	3	3	0	1
Jackson Kuwatch · #46	3	3	0	0
Devin Lloyd · #55	3	2	0	1
Claudin Cherelus · #53	3	2	0	0
DeVonta Smith · #43	3	2	0	0
Aaron Hall · #61	3	1	0.5	0
Cam Gill · #49	2	2	1	1
Mike Jackson · #2	2	2	0	0
Akayleb Evans · #29	2	2	0	0
Corey Thornton · #31	2	2	0	0
Jaelan Phillips · #5	2	1	1	1
Nick Scott · #21	2	1	0	0
Jeremiah Moon · #56	2	1	0	0
Trevin Wallace · #32	2	1	0	0
Trevis Gipson · #52	2	0	0.5	0
Parker Petersen · #69	2	0	0	0
David Moore · #83	1	1	0	0
Tywone Malone Jr. · #64	1	1	0	0
Kyon Barrs · #67D	1	1	0	0
Thomas Incoom · #48	1	1	0	0
Will Lee III · #24	1	1	0	0
Isaiah Smith · #47	1	0	0	0
Princely Umanmielen · #3	0	0	0	0
Team	68	46	3	4

Player
Ryan Fitzgerald · #10	0/0	0	2/2	2
Team	0/0	0	2/2	2

Player
Sam Martin · #6	3	159	53.0	1
Team	3	159	53.0	1

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape

3 sub-models, blended.

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense

Kick Returns

Kicking

Punting

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Fumbles

Defense

Interceptions

Kick Returns

Punt Returns

Kicking

Tale of the tape

Player
Josh Allen · #17	6/8	111	1	0
Kyle Allen · #11	14/16	108	0	0
Shane Buechele · #6	6/9	50	0	0
Team	26/33	245	1	0

Player
Ian Wheeler · #27	7	41	1	10
Frank Gore Jr. · #20	7	38	1	16
Mecole Hardman Jr. · #1	1	27	0	27
Ray Davis · #7	3	21	0	12
James Cook III · #4	5	21	0	13
Kyle Allen · #11	1	2	0	2
Shane Buechele · #6	2	1	0	2
Team	26	151	2	27

Player
DJ Moore · #2	3	61	0	32
Stephen Gosnell · #89	3	44	0	18
Khalil Shakir · #10	2	41	0	21
Keleki Latu · #83	4	33	0	19
Ray Davis · #7	4	32	0	12
Keon Coleman · #0	3	17	1	9
Trent Sherfield · #81	2	12	0	8
Ja'Mori Maclin · #84	1	9	0	9
Frank Gore Jr. · #20	1	7	0	7
Jackson Hawes · #85	1	6	0	6
Ben VanSumeren · #45	1	4	0	4
Mecole Hardman Jr. · #1	1	3	0	3
Dante Pettis · #87	0	0	0	0
Shane Zylstra · #48	0	0	0	0
Team	26	269	1	32

Player
Toriano Pride Jr. · #32	6	6	0	0
Jordan Hancock · #37	4	4	0	2
Javon Solomon · #56	4	2	0	0
Jordan Dunbar · #36	4	1	0	0
Deone Walker · #96	3	2	1	1
Dorian Williams · #42	3	2	0	0
Kaleb Elarms-Orr · #52	3	2	0	0
Andre Jones Jr. · #59	3	1	0	0
Landon Jackson · #94	3	1	0	1
Theron Gaines · #54	3	1	0	0
Mike Danna · #51	2	2	2	2
Bradley Chubb · #9	2	2	0	1
Keonta Jenkins · #49	2	2	0	0
Trent Sherfield · #81	2	1	0	0
Sam Franklin Jr. · #28	2	1	0	0
Joe Andreessen · #44	2	1	0	0
D.J. Miller · #46	2	1	0	0
Wande Owens · #38	2	1	0	0
Shane Zylstra · #48	2	1	0	0
Jimmy Ciarlo · #35	2	1	0	0
TJ Parker · #99	1	1	1	1
Geno Stone · #25	1	1	0	0
Terrel Bernard · #8	1	1	0	0
Te'Cory Couch · #33	1	1	0	0
Davison Igbinosun · #21	1	1	0	0
Jalon Kilgore · #29	1	1	0	0
Damar Hamlin · #3	1	0	0	0
Dee Alford · #23	1	0	0	0
DeWayne Carter · #90	1	0	0	0
Zion Logue · #93	1	0	0	0
Cade Denhoff · #57	1	0	0	0
T.J. Sanders · #98	1	0	0	0
Zane Durant · #92	1	0	0	0
Kani Walker · #41	0	0	0	0
Anthony Kendall · #30	0	0	0	0
Team	69	41	4	8

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Tyler Bass · #16	3/4	46	2/2	11
Team	3/4	46	2/2	11