MLBTop 6
WSH 1@NYM 2
+31.3ppmedium
MLBBot 8
NYY 1@TOR 4
+55.0pplow
MLBBot 5
COL 1@SF 7
+42.6pplow
NFLHalftime
LAR 6@KC 6
NFLHalftime
JAX 6@NO 20
TONIGHTGraded picks 2-1 so far (MLB 1-1, WNBA 1-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Vargas (CHW): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over DET — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 7.0 IP · 8 K in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Pfaadt (ARI): 7.0 IP · 7 K in a win over ATL
TRANSACTION · MLBCardinals: Recalled OF Joshua Báez from Memphis (IL) (Aug 15)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Designated OF Jihwan Bae for assignment (Aug 15)
TRANSACTION · MLBBlue Jays: Placed 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Aug 15)
MLBTop 6
WSH 1@NYM 2
+31.3ppmedium
MLBBot 8
NYY 1@TOR 4
+55.0pplow
MLBBot 5
COL 1@SF 7
+42.6pplow
NFLHalftime
LAR 6@KC 6
NFLHalftime
JAX 6@NO 20
TONIGHTGraded picks 2-1 so far (MLB 1-1, WNBA 1-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Vargas (CHW): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over DET — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 7.0 IP · 8 K in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Pfaadt (ARI): 7.0 IP · 7 K in a win over ATL
TRANSACTION · MLBCardinals: Recalled OF Joshua Báez from Memphis (IL) (Aug 15)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Designated OF Jihwan Bae for assignment (Aug 15)
TRANSACTION · MLBBlue Jays: Placed 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Aug 15)
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
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THE ONE Analytics
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NFL logoNFLHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersFantasyDraft '26LeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
JAX logo
JAX
6
LiveHalftime
NO logo
NO
20
Updated 5:42 PM ET
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
HALFTIME+14NO↑
JAX

JAX

0-0

6
20
NO

NO

0-0

NFL · Drive chart

15 drives · 2 TD · 4 FG · 2 INT · 1 Fum · 6 Punt
  1. TDNO1p · 9y
  2. INTJAX11p · 53y
  3. PuntNO3p
  4. PuntJAX3p · -1y
  5. PuntNO3p · 9y
  6. FGJAX4p · -4y
  7. FumNO1p · -11y
  8. FGJAX4p · -7y
  9. FGNO15p · 57y
  10. PuntJAX4p · 15y
  11. PuntNO3p
  12. INTJAX3p · -9y
  13. TDNO2p · 28y
  14. PuntJAX4p · 15y
  15. FGNO9p · 84y
Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props

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Team pages

Jacksonville JaguarsatNew Orleans Saints

Elsewhere in the NFL

  • Rams6@Chiefs6Halftime
  • Eagles@Ravens8/15 - 7:00 PM EDT
  • Cowboys@Seahawks8/15 - 8:00 PM EDT
  • Panthers14@Bills29Final
  • Browns10@Bears34Final
  • Vikings13@Giants10Final

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 62-36
63%Last 30 · 296-174
Receipts →

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · NO favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NO win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NO win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NO win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

On the call · NFL

7 officials

Line Judge

Jeff Seeman

Back Judge

Dino Paganelli

Field Judge

Dyrol Prioleau

Referee

Keith Parham

Referee

Clay Martin

Umpire

Tra Blake

Down Judge

Jay Bilbo

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

QB · live passing line

ESPN leaders · live

C. Bradley

JAX · #10 · QB

36 yds3/8 · 0 TD · 1 INT

Z. Wilson

NO · #4 · QB

112 yds7/12 · 1 TD · 0 INT

Recent plays · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. NO · Pass Reception1st & 10 · +5 ydsQ2
  2. NO · Timeout2nd & 5 · no gainQ2
  3. NO · Pass Reception2nd & 5 · +28 ydsQ2
  4. NO · Pass Reception1st & 10 · +8 ydsQ2
  5. NO · Pass Incompletion2nd & 2 · no gainQ2
  6. NO · Timeout3rd & 2 · no gainQ2
  7. NO · Pass Incompletion3rd & 2 · no gainQ2
  8. NO · Field Goal Good4th & 2 · +29 ydsQ2
NFL·Sat, Aug 15·Halftime/VegasNO -3
Updated 0s ago

JAX · top performer

JAX
Carter Bradley

Carter Bradley

· #10

36Pass yds

3/8

C/A

0

TD

1

INT

NO · top performer

NO
Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson

· #4

112Pass yds

7/12

C/A

1

TD

0

INT

Game flowJAX ↔ NO

Recent swing: 8pp · —

NFL · Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints · live

NFL · Box score

Halftime

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Carter Bradley · #10
3/83601
Nick Mullens · #14
3/73301
Team6/155302

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J'Mari Taylor · #30
72007
DeeJay Dallas · #20
5706
Nick Mullens · #14
1202
Team132907

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
CJ Williams · #18
228017
Austin Trammell · #81
218013
Josh Cameron · #19
117017
DeeJay Dallas · #20
1606
Hunter Long · #84
0000
Tanner Koziol · #89
0000
Team669017

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B.J. Green II · #95
001
Team001

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Corey Ballentine · #38
5400
Jalen Huskey · #22
4400
Christian Braswell · #21
4100
Jabbar Muhammad · #37
3301
Danny Striggow · #92
310.50
Ruke Orhorhoro · #99
300.50
Branson Combs · #50
3000
Yasir Abdullah · #56
2211
Jahlani Tavai · #32
2100
Zach Durfee · #58
2000
Nick Mullens · #14
1100
Ventrell Miller · #51
1100
Quintin Morris · #80
1100
Patrick Herbert · #88
1100
Wesley Williams · #90
1100
B.J. Green II · #95
1100
CJ Williams · #18
1100
Caleb Ransaw · #27
1000
Bryan Thomas Jr. · #57
0000
Rayuan Lane III · #25
0000
Team392322

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Chandler Brayboy · #15
255320
Josh Cameron · #19
125250
Team380320

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Josh Cameron · #19
110100
Team110100

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Cam Little · #39
2/2540/06
Team2/2540/06

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Logan Cooke · #9
312441.33
Team312441.33

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Zach Wilson · #4
7/1211210
Spencer Rattler · #2
8/114200
Team15/2313810

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Audric Estime · #30
52819
Ty Chandler · #32
31006
CJ Donaldson · #43
2000
Team103819

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Bub Means · #16
477037
Barion Brown · #19
453028
Kevin Austin Jr. · #81
32409
Oscar Delp · #88
2615
Ty Chandler · #32
1000
Ronnie Bell · #11
0000
Moliki Matavao · #80
0000
Audric Estime · #30
1-60-6
Team15154137

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Spencer Rattler · #2
110
Team110

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jaylan Ford · #53
8300
Christen Miller · #52
4100
Michael Heldman · #63
3222
Garrett Nelson · #59
2111
Jackson Sirmon · #47
2100
Isaiah Stalbird · #44
2100
Fadil Diggs · #40
2100
Mike Reid · #42
2100
Jordan Howden · #31
2000
Malakai Williams · #56
2000
Ty Chandler · #32
1100
Myles Cole · #57
1101
Jayden Price · #38
1100
Deion Jones · #45
1000
Khristian Boyd · #97
1000
Moliki Matavao · #80
1000
Audric Estime · #30
1000
Elliott Davison · #35
1000
TJ Hall Jr. · #34
1000
Martin Emerson Jr. · #22
0000
Team381434

Interceptions

interceptions box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jaylan Ford · #53
1140
Jayden Price · #38
1120
Team2260

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ty Chandler · #32
186860
Trey Palmer · #10
241210
Team3127860

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Trey Palmer · #10
1110
Barion Brown · #19
1-7-70
Team2-610

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Tanner Brown · #46
2/2490/06
Charlie Smyth · #39
0/002/22
Team2/2492/28

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ryan Wright · #17
312240.70
Team312240.70

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

82

Total yds

176

29

Rush yds

38

2

TO

1

Team stats

JAX

Away

Stat

NO

Home

82

Total yards

176

29

Rushing yds

38

2

Turnovers

1

4-25

totalPenaltiesYards

5-41

16:12

possessionTime

13:48

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -3.0

★ on key 3

Total

36.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

JAXJAX+13043%
NONO-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -3.0↗SpreadBet NO -3.0↗

How it's going

NO lead JAX 20-6 (Halftime). Zach Wilson led the way — 7/12 · 112 YDS · 1 TD · 117.4 QBR. NO have outscored the other side 13-0 in the 2nd quarter.

Linescore (quarters)

Team12T
JAX606
NO71320

Betting line

NO -3·O/U 36.5·JAX +130/NO -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.0

+1.0 since open

Total

36.5

-3.0 since open

Win probability

NO vs JAX

0255075100

Period scoring

JAX won 0 · NO won 2

6
7

Q1

0
13

Q2

JAX
NO

Play-by-play · 97 plays

event
  1. —

  2. —

    +5pp

  3. —

    −1pp

  4. —

    +1pp

  5. —

  6. —

    +1pp

  7. —

    −4pp

  8. —

    −0.7pp

  9. —

    −1pp

  10. —

    −3pp

  11. —

    +0.6pp

  12. —

    −2pp

  13. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +6pp

  14. —

    BIG MOMENT

    −7pp

  15. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +11pp

  16. —

  17. —

    −2pp

  18. —

    +0.8pp

  19. —

    −4pp

  20. —

    +1.0pp

  21. —

  22. —

    +2pp

  23. —

    −0.7pp

  24. —

    +4pp

  25. —

    −1pp

  26. —

  27. —

  28. —

  29. —

    −4pp

  30. —

    −4pp

Tale of the tape

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

JAX

JAX

league avg

NO

NO

28.2

Pts / game

◀

23.5

16.6

352

Yds / game

◀

342

331

237

Pass yds / G

225

237

115

Rush yds / G

◀

117

94

0.9

TO / G

◀

0.9

1.2