
JAX
0-0

NO
0-0
NFL · Drive chart
15 drives · 2 TD · 4 FG · 2 INT · 1 Fum · 6 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · NO favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Line Judge
Jeff Seeman
Back Judge
Dino Paganelli
Field Judge
Dyrol Prioleau
Referee
Keith Parham
Referee
Clay Martin
Umpire
Tra Blake
Down Judge
Jay Bilbo
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveC. Bradley
JAX · #10 · QB
Z. Wilson
NO · #4 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveJAX · top performer

Carter Bradley
· #10
3/8
C/A
0
TD
1
INT
NO · top performer

Zach Wilson
· #4
7/12
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
Recent swing: 8pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/8 | 36 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3/7 | 33 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 6/15 | 53 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 20 | 0 | 7 | |
| 5 | 7 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 13 | 29 | 0 | 7 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 28 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 18 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 6 | 69 | 0 | 17 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 39 | 23 | 2 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 55 | 32 | 0 | |
| 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 80 | 32 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 54 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 54 | 0/0 | 6 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 124 | 41.3 | 3 | |
| Team | 3 | 124 | 41.3 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/12 | 112 | 1 | 0 | |
| 8/11 | 42 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 15/23 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 28 | 1 | 9 | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 10 | 38 | 1 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 77 | 0 | 37 | |
| 4 | 53 | 0 | 28 | |
| 3 | 24 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | -6 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 15 | 154 | 1 | 37 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 14 | 3 | 4 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 0 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 86 | 86 | 0 | |
| 2 | 41 | 21 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 127 | 86 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | -7 | -7 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | -6 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 49 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| 0/0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 49 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 122 | 40.7 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 122 | 40.7 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
82
Total yds
176
29
Rush yds
38
2
TO
1
Team stats
JAX
Away
Stat
NO
Home
82
Total yards
176
29
Rushing yds
38
2
Turnovers
1
4-25
totalPenaltiesYards
5-41
16:12
possessionTime
13:48
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NO -3.0
★ on key 3
Total
36.5
Defensive · -10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
NO lead JAX 20-6 (Halftime). Zach Wilson led the way — 7/12 · 112 YDS · 1 TD · 117.4 QBR. NO have outscored the other side 13-0 in the 2nd quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| NO | 7 | 13 | 20 |
Betting line
NO -3·O/U 36.5·JAX +130/NO -155
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.0
+1.0 since open
Total
36.5
-3.0 since open
Win probability
NO vs JAX
Period scoring
JAX won 0 · NO won 2
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 97 plays
+5pp
−1pp
+1pp
+1pp
−4pp
−0.7pp
−1pp
−3pp
+0.6pp
−2pp
BIG MOMENT
+6pp
BIG MOMENT
−7pp
BIG MOMENT
+11pp
−2pp
+0.8pp
−4pp
+1.0pp
+2pp
−0.7pp
+4pp
−1pp
−4pp
−4pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
JAX
league avg
NO
28.2
Pts / game
23.5
16.6
352
Yds / game
342
331
237
Pass yds / G
225
237
115
Rush yds / G
117
94
0.9
TO / G
0.9
1.2