
LAR
1-0

KC
0-1
NFL · Drive chart
19 drives · 2 TD · 6 FG · 9 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Umpire
Barry Anderson
Side Judge
Keith Washington
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Field Judge
Ryan Dickson
Down Judge
Danny Short
Line Judge
Tripp Sutter
Back Judge
Courtney Brown
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
LAR · top performer

Ty Simpson
· #15
21/25
C/A
2
TD
0
INT
KC · top performer

Garrett Nussmeier
· #14O
13/19
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
Biggest swing: 13pp · —
NFL · Box scoreNGS
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/25 | 190 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4/6 | 38 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 25/31 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 37 | 0 | 26 | |
| 9 | 35 | 0 | 13 | |
| 6 | 22 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 21 | 93 | 0 | 26 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 58 | 0 | 23 | |
| 3 | 47 | 0 | 23 | |
| 7 | 37 | 0 | 11 | |
| 4 | 29 | 2 | 13 | |
| 4 | 26 | 0 | 13 | |
| 2 | 18 | 0 | 16 | |
| 1 | 13 | 0 | 13 | |
| Team | 25 | 228 | 2 | 23 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 77 | 40 | 2 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 59 | 30 | 0 | |
| 2 | 51 | 27 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 110 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 52 | 40 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 52 | 40 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 40 | 2/2 | 8 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 40 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 243 | 60.8 | 2 | |
| Team | 4 | 243 | 60.8 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/19 | 98 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5/11 | 63 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4/4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 22/34 | 189 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 59 | 0 | 13 | |
| 3 | 27 | 0 | 15 | |
| 8 | 21 | 0 | 7 | |
| 2 | 9 | 0 | 8 | |
| 3 | 9 | 0 | 5 | |
| Team | 28 | 125 | 0 | 15 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 40 | 0 | 27 | |
| 3 | 29 | 0 | 10 | |
| 2 | 20 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 20 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 2 | 17 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 12 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 | |
| 2 | 10 | 0 | 5 | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 22 | 202 | 0 | 27 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 66 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 30 | 0 | |
| 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 54 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 19 | 0 | |
| 2 | 16 | 10 | 0 | |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 49 | 19 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 59 | 0/0 | 12 | |
| Team | 4/4 | 59 | 0/0 | 12 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 222 | 44.4 | 3 | |
| Team | 5 | 222 | 44.4 | 3 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
321
Total yds
314
93
Rush yds
125
0
TO
0
Team stats
LAR
Away
Stat
KC
Home
321
Total yards
314
93
Rushing yds
125
0
Turnovers
0
4-26
totalPenaltiesYards
12-83
26:35
possessionTime
33:25
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
KC -1.5
Between — and 3
Total
36.5
Defensive · -10.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
LAR beat KC 20-12. Ty Simpson led the way — 21/25 · 190 YDS · 2 TD · 125.0 QBR. LAR outscored the other side 14-3 in the 4th quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 20 |
| KC | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
Betting line
KC -1.5·O/U 36.5·LAR +105/KC -125
Recap · NFL
os Angeles Rams went into Kansas City Chiefs and beat them, 20–12.
LAR +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 36.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.0 since open
Total
36.5
-1.0 since open
Win probability
KC vs LAR
Period scoring
LAR won 2 · KC won 2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 179 plays
−2pp
+1pp
−0.9pp
+4pp
+0.5pp
+1pp
−0.8pp
−4pp
−1pp
−2pp
−2pp
+1pp
−3pp
+2pp
BIG MOMENT
−6pp
−3pp
+0.8pp
+2pp
+2pp
+4pp
−0.9pp
+2pp
−2pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
LAR
league avg
KC
38.5
Pts / game
23.5
21.5
404
Yds / game
342
339
277
Pass yds / G
225
232
127
Rush yds / G
117
107
0.8
TO / G
0.9
0.8