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DET
0Live10:21 - 2nd
CIN
3Updated 8:04 PM ET
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
10:21 - 2ND+3CIN
DET
0-0
03
CIN
0-0
NFL · Drive chart
8 drives · 1 FG · 1 INT · 2 Fum · 1 Downs · 2 PuntINTDET5p · 38y PuntCIN5p · 21y PuntDET3p · -3y FGCIN9p · 32y DownsDET6p · 40y FumCIN12p · 46y FumDET1p · -6y —CIN1p · 3y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Tale of the tape
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
DET
league avg
CIN
32.1
Pts / game
◀
23.5
29.3
389
Yds / game
◀
342
343
269
Pass yds / G
◀
225
250
120
Rush yds / G
◀
117
94
0.7
TO / G
◀
0.9
1.4
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
